Michaels O’Hanlon and Poznansky, of @brookings.edu, do not see the depletion of U.S. missile stocks as a problem vis-à-vis China. www.brookings.edu/articles/why...

Why lower munitions stocks won’t undercut deterrence of China | Brookings

While munitions shortages are concerning and in need of rapid redress, deterrence of great power war is highly unlikely to fail due to these shortages.

brookings.edu

Aron Lund@aronlund.bsky.social · last wk.

Chris H. Park and Mark Cancian calculate the time needed for the United States to rebuild its missile inventories after the war on Iran. It’s typically a few years per missile type despite raised production capacity, with allied needs on top of that. www.csis.org/analysis/reb... @mideast.csis.org

www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

Russia’s Selective Adaptation: Command, Control and the Limits of Learning in War

The contrast between Russia’s tactical flexibility and operational rigidity is revealing of the insecurity in its executive function.

rusi.org

Why I wear a fedora

The 2004 leaked edition of Science of Second Artillery Campaigns in China raised the notion of conventional intercontinental strikes "to shock the adversary psychologically."

NERV IRB Coordinator@professormusgrave.bsky.social · 3w ago

Muscovites’ stunned reactions that there can be explosions near them will be nothing like when Californians or New Yorkers see their first re-entry vehicle streak through the sky

The biggest problem is that I've seen maybe a handful of news reporting regarding Iran over the past several years that deals w/the Paydari Front. I provided some links on them a month ago. 3/

Silverman on Security@silvermansecurity.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Some were asking for more information on the Paydari Front. Here's archived reporting from April 2024. 1/

Of additional interest is the presumed trimaran submarine originally produced by Huangpu. The fact that the hull is now moored at Bohai may underscore relevance of the effort for PLAN. This further reinforces impression that no less than four PRC yards actively pursue submarine production.

These guys look hyped www.npr.org/2026/07/04/g...

China's military promotes 2 new generals after anti-corruption purge thins ranks

The shake-up is believed to be an effort to ensure the military's loyalty to the Communist Party and its leader, Xi Jinping.

npr.org

Good to see this reversal of Secretary Hegseth's ill-fated policy: "The Army, Navy and Air Force are once again requiring flu shots for basic trainees." abcnews.com/Health/milit...

Military services again requiring recruits to get flu shots as Air Force outbreak grows

A flu outbreak at a basic training facility for the Air Force in San Antonio, Texas, is growing to at least 222 cases and four hospitalizations.

abcnews.com

After the recent crash of a skydiving aircraft in Butler, MO, I reviewed & analyzed 20 years of skydiving accidents. I've got some statistics on pilot flight time, probable cause, etc. to share with you. /1 colleenmondor.substack.com/p/50-in-ligh...

#50: In light of the recent crash, here are some skydiving accident statistics

Twenty years of skydiving accident data reveals that these accidents are always preventable.

colleenmondor.substack.com

The U.S. SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) will likely fall to fresh 43-year lows when DOE updates the data in a few hours. To put it in perspective, while a 43-year low sounds daunting, another perspective is that it stands at ~47% of capacity.

This is one of the areas where "we are an apolitical military" works as a thought-stopping technique.

William B. Fuckley@opinionhaver.bsky.social · last mo.

I do think that 'we won the war but lost the politics' is huge cope, the war is the politics, losing them is losing the war.

A new report on maintenance practices of PLAN by RAND. A few notes after skimming through the writing. www.rand.org/pubs/researc...

Understanding China's Naval Maintenance Management

The rapid growth and modernization of China's navy has created a larger burden for logistics support and maintenance of its assets. What have other navies done to balance maintenance demand and supply...

rand.org

“Correspondence: Realism, Russia, and Ukraine.” @jimgoldgeier.bsky.social and @bdtaylor-su.bsky.social respond to Posen’s Winter 2024/25 article. doi.org/10.1162/ISEC...

Correspondence: Realism, Russia, and Ukraine

Barry Posen argues that Russia's full-scale invasion is “consistent with the logic of preventive war.”1 He writes, “Historians will debate whether it was Putin's strategic calculus or his commitment t...

doi.org

It’s such a strange payload — the spread is too large and the fragments too few/big to do much damage unless you are very, very unlucky. Makes somewhat more sense as a nuclear delivery method.

🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Ukrainian Ministry of Defense experts examining the remnants of Russia’s Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile estimate that its submunitions weigh approximately 50 kg each. According to the analysis, the impact elements are solid cast-metal bodies made of cast iron.

‘The Pentagon Knew Enemies Could Track Troops’ Phones for Years’. ‘The US military has long known that cheap fixes could stop location data from exposing its troops. It adopted almost none—and now says adversaries are using the data to target soldiers during a war’. www.wired.com/story/the-pe...

The Pentagon Knew Enemies Could Track Troops’ Phones for Years. Now They Are

The US military has long known that cheap fixes could stop location data from exposing its troops. It adopted almost none—and now says adversaries are using the data to target soldiers during a war.

wired.com

The discovery of an R-60 air-to-air missile that came down in Ukraine's northern Chernihiv region in early April 2026 led to wild – and unfounded – speculation regarding a radiological threat. Warsight's Dan Kaszeta sets the record straight. warsight.com/2026/05/27/d... @dankaszeta.bsky.social

Depleted uranium: dirty bomb or not? - Warsight

The discovery of an R-60 air-to-air missile in Ukraine's Chernihiv region in April 2026 led to unfounded speculation regarding a threat from uranium.

warsight.com

Footage shows the moment a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile was intercepted directly above an eyewitness in Kyiv Oblast. #Ukraine

Here's one example of problems that make expanding a military a slow process. You can gut military capabilities quickly, but rebuilding them could well take 10-25 years. One hopes this lesson is remembered at least for my remaining lifetime. balticsentinel.eu/8477152/swed...

Sweden’s Armed Forces Are Growing. Recent Scandals Suggest Their Leadership Culture May Not Be Keeping Up.

A widening series of complaints, open letters and internal accounts has raised an uncomfortable question inside Sweden’s Armed Forces: Can a military expanding for the NATO era also reform its leaders...

balticsentinel.eu

“One by one, militants who videotaped their exploits that day have been identified and killed, in a measure of Israel’s surveillance acumen and desire for retribution.” Operation Wrath of God II. www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Inside Israel’s High-Tech Campaign to Kill or Capture Every Oct. 7 Attacker

One by one, militants who videotaped their exploits that day have been identified and killed, in a measure of Israel’s surveillance acumen and desire for retribution.

wsj.com

Part 1/2 Ukrainian forces tested launching the Ukrainian-American Hornet kamikaze drone via balloon. The aerostat carried it 42 km and released it from 8 km altitude while using only 5% of the drone’s battery power.

The man is wearing an Army Air Corp A-1 flight jacket whose button-front closure predates widespread usage of zippers. His zippered shirt is a style popularized at the start of the 1930s. Rockwell's use of these details signifies the man's military past and current status as a worker.

www.wsj.com/world/europe... (gift link)

Military Snipers Are Being Put Out of a Job by Drones

A special forces soldier that Ukraine claimed was a world-record shot hasn’t been out to shoot in more than a year.

wsj.com

Today is Florence Nightingale’s birthday. Beyond nursing, she used data visualization to prove soldiers were dying not from battle wounds but preventable disease. One of the earliest examples of a chart used to change policy. Deaths fell by 2/3 within a year.

How does China expand its nuclear arsenal while posing as a champion of disarmament? At the 2026 NPT Review Conference, Beijing is deploying a highly effective diplomatic shield: the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). 1/6 🧵

"The sons of a powerful family with close ties to Iran’s new supreme leader control the country’s largest cryptocurrency exchange" www.reuters.com/investigatio...

One of Iran’s most powerful families founded its largest crypto exchange. It’s used by the IRGC to move millions

Two brothers from the elite Kharrazi family, using an alternative surname, started up Nobitex in 2018. The crypto exchange has become a central node in a parallel financial system that moves funds bey...

reuters.com

“I wish we lived in the Tom Clancy world where analyst assessments form a decisive input into policy, but often decision makers already have strong assumptions about the situation, and know what they want to do – or don’t want to do.” — Michael Kofman responds to my critique of Ukr. war predictions.

Who Gets War Right? Michael Kofman Responds

a debate about military forecasting, broken clocks, and magic wands

open.substack.com

This is a counterintelligence problem: Half of ‘long shot’ Polymarket bets on military action are successful www.ft.com/content/989d...

Half of ‘long shot’ Polymarket bets on military action are successful

High rate of winning wagers likely to add to concerns that sensitive information can leak on prediction markets

ft.com

Unprecedented statement by JNIM has just been released. JNIM claims to have attacked: -the houses of Malian dictator Ghoita, Mali minister of Defense. -Modibo Keita airport in Bamako -Kati base -taken control over Mopti, parts of Gao and Séváre

President Zelenskyy: ❗️For the first time in the history of this war an enemy position was taken using only unmanned platforms - ground robotic complexes and drones. Russian soldiers in the position surrendered into captivity.