David Bole

@boleigh.bsky.social

Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Foresters. Civil Servant (UK). I like fountain pens and equity

You might have formed the impression that Paul Johnson, former director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, knows what he's talking about. The media treats him like the voice of God. But here he is - and not for the first time - talking out of his hat. Let's break it down in a short thread. 🧵

This is utter garbage. I believe in net zero. We need to get there. But renewables are not competitive. That's why they are subsidised. Fossil fuel markets are highly competitive. It shouldn't be hard to hold these two thoughts at the same time.

Here's all 8 pages of CO2 Newsletter Vol 1 no 1 (Oct 1979) Geologist William N. Barbat published the Newsletter for 3 years (18 issues). They are incredible - detailed, precise and, ultimately, heart-breaking because they reveal how much was known, how many warnings were ignored. 1/8

CO2Newsletter Vol 1 No 1 page 1

Tonight Kertasníkir (Candle Stealer), the last of Iceland's 13 Yule Lads, comes down from the mountains. He steals candles (that used to be made from animal fat) and eats them. Children leave their shoes out in the window, he gives the good ones a small gift, the bad ones get a potato.

Kertasníkir has a white beard and is wearing a red hat and is holding a bunch of candles. Illustration by Brian Pilkington.

I wanted to get a video of this ghost crab but every time I got close to their hole they scuttled back in, so I tried getting clever with it. I made a little sandcastle and shoved my phone into it, hit record, and walked away. Crab was VERY suspicious of this addition to their environment.

You can add up all the enjoyable pursuits of LLMs and the work productivity hacks and none of them, separately or together, will be more important than AI’s ecological costs or political disruption. “We” is more important here.

Not even 9am. So far on Radio 6, the news bulletins have featured a mother saying her daughters aren't safe because of asylum seekers, a Tory politician lambasting Labour for crossing numbers & Badenoch encouraging councils to lodge legal challenges against hotels. An endless stream of hateful bile.

The increasing number of extreme climate events – floods, wildfires, hurricanes, etc – has NOT raised awareness of the threat posed by climate collapse. Instead, people change their idea of normal: the “boiling frog effect”. But “before and after” data can help. www.theguardian.com/news/2025/ju...

‘Boiling frog’ effect makes people oblivious to threat of climate crisis, shows study

Research shows people’s response to binary data could drive more effective ways of communicating gravity of crisis

theguardian.com

The earth is big. Water is powerful. Fire too. Also viruses. Exponential growth can take things from tiny warnings to unmanageable problems pretty darn quick. The human is tiny and 100% dependent on the living planet.

From my 3rd evening out on the ile-de-re watching a Long-eared Owl hunt I felt like I was learning its habits - it felt very special. In the distance I could hear it's young calling out for food. I am stood on the edge of a cycle path next to a vineyard. #Frenchbirds

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