Marc Schwager

@cavedalerhones.bsky.social

Growing Rhone Varietals on the west slopes of Mt Veeder in the Moon Mt AVA. Local flora and fauna of the Mayacamas. Fire info if anything gets close. K6GSM

Salsa and guacamole are not that hard to make at home, a lot cheaper, and you can adjust the flavor to your taste. And for gods sakes, stop buying packaged salads! They're a ripoff even if they're not infected.

Aug update from ECMWF predictive ensemble is genuinely extraordinary from extreme #ElNiño perspective. One implication: it is now indicating not only 70-100% odds of above avg winter precip California-wide, but also 70-100% odds of DJF 26-27 being among the top 20% of wettest CA winters (!).

Map showing ECMWF ensemble DJF 2026-7 predicted precipitation by tercile status (i.e., most likely well above, well below, or near-average). All of the CA coast is painted the brightest color, indicating 70-100% odds of a winter among the wettest third of all historical winters.Map showing ECMWF ensemble DJF 2026-7 predicted precipitation. All of the CA coast is painted the bluest color, indicating well below average odds of a winter in the driest 20% of all winters.Map showing ECMWF ensemble DJF 2026-7 predicted precipitation. All of the CA coast is painted the brightest orange color, indicating well above average odds of a winter in the wettest 20% of all CA winters.

Wednesday El Niño update - Record warmth continues in the key monitoring region called Niño 3.4, which is due to both the long-term warming of the tropics (climate change) and the developing El Niño. Over the last 7 days, there has been a steady warming across the central Pacific. Data: OISSTv2.1 🌊

Line graph time series of daily sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino3.4 region. Years are shown from 1982 to 2025 in shades of blue to light yellow, and 2026 is shown in red. Climatologically, the largest anomalies are during the boreal winter in terms of magnitude. Data is from OISSTv2.1. Map of August 4, 2026 average sea surface temperature anomalies in the ENSO monitoring regions. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1 with anomalies relative to a 1991-2020 baseline.Graphic showing the 1-week change in sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean from July 28, 2026 to August 4, 2026. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1Graphic showing the 4-week change in sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean from July 5, 2026 to August 4, 2026. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1

#OldTrailsFire in Spokane now appears to be most destructive wildfire in WA State history by wide margin (650+ structures lost), w/additional TBD losses nearby. Other PacNW fires actively burning, though less destructive, are far larger & could burn for weeks amid severe drought.

Bordeaux, France, has now recorded more days above 40°C in 2026 alone than during the entire 105-year period from 1920 (when observations began) to 2025. This is deeply shocking.

Bild

This is a great public service by @angierasmussen.bsky.social, covering a pathetic McCarthyite anti-science show trial By the way, a medical student friend of mine just had the opportunity to do clinical rounds with Dr Fauci and was incredibly inspired

Angie Rasmussen@angierasmussen.bsky.social · 2w ago

Live from the American Society for Virology annual meeting, I’ll be covering Fauci’s show trial tomorrow & maybe recapping with @saveamericamvmt.bsky.social. Sorry to be so cryptic but I’ve had a bout with my medical issue that incapacitated me for the last 12 hours—just getting plans together now

Growing signs of prolonged & potentially intense heatwave across SW by early Aug. A broad Four Corners ridge will strengthen far beyond usual levels on its western flank, possibly due in part to indirect effects from a yet-to-develop East Pacific hurricane. Details TBD. #CAwx

Forecast from ECMWF ensemble showing 500mb GPH anomalies (normalized) around early August. They are highly anomalously positive across the SW US.

🚨reporters working on stories about the NAS extreme event attribution report 🚨 DO NOT FRAME ANY STORY AS "CAN WE BELIEVE EXTREME EVENT ATTRIBUTION RESEARCH?" THE ACTUAL STORY IS: FOSSIL-FUEL INTERESTS ARE WETTING THEIR PANTS ABOUT THIS AND WILL DO ANYTHING TO TRY TO STOP IT.

💔A promise made to my grandfather before he died is now at risk because of State Farm& their terrible tactics. State Farm is NOT a good neighbor. Our 100 yr family property was destroyed & in danger of being lost. We need your help to fight back & preserve our legacy. gofund.me/4b1a2b26b

Donate to Help Save Our Family Home and 100 Year Legacy , organized by Tara Setmayer

Help me keep a promise to my Grandfather, before It’s too late. Be… Tara Setmayer needs your support for Help Save Our Family Home and 100 Year Legacy

gofund.me

Next, late Jun troughing will bring cooler temps (mitigating factor), but also widespread and locally strong winds & little precip (aggravating factors). In fact, ensembles are currently suggesting notable summer wind event (a known fire outbreak trigger if following heatwave).

Map from ECMWF ensemble "shift of the tails" index (an internally consistent measure of extremity of a predicted variable in historical context) for wind speeds across the West next weekend. At least some portion of nearly every western state will see elevated risk of strong summer winds.

Signs pointing toward extended period of elevated to critical fire weather across Western U.S. through early Jul. Antecedent conditions: Recent anomalous heat (esp. PacNW), plus widespread severe to extreme drought, have primed vegetation (via fuel drying). Then... [Thread]

Map from ECMWF ensemble depicting a pronounced and unusual summer trough across the interior West next weekend--the catalyst for a significant summer wind event.