@econmsk.bsky.social and Levine's new WP on Fertility in high-income countries has two remarkable graphs www.nber.org/papers/w3398... The first shows the enormous shift up in share of women delaying / choosing to not have any kids across cohorts:
Christian Julliard
@christianjulliard.net
I think, read, write, teach (and take photos). Associate Professor @LSEFinance. I study the interaction between financial markets and the macroeconomy. https://christianjulliard.net
A must read. 20 years of USAID avoided an estimated 91 million preventable deaths worldwide. The 2025 cuts to 83% of its programmes are projected to result in 14 million preventable deaths by 2030. The Lancet: 🧪 www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis
USAID funding has significantly contributed to the reduction in adult and child mortality across low-income and middle-income countries over the past two decades. Our estimates show that, unless the a...
thelancet.com
My flight to Chicago landed in Milwaukee, leaving me stranded and miss my connection to London. A learning experience: consumer protection in US v EU is (dark) night v day.
🚨 "Consumption in Asset Returns" (w. Svetlana Bryzgalova & Jiantao Huang) forthcoming @ Journal of Finance We use asset returns to uncover the elusive dynamics of consumption. Turns out, financial markets know a lot about future consumption—and it matters for both macro & asset pricing 🧵👇 1/n
New from @chloeneast.bsky.social at Can We Still Govern: AEI cited her work to make the case for SNAP work requirements. Chloe explains that her and other research show that work requirements reduce SNAP access while doing nothing for employment outcomes. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-aei-g...
What AEI Gets Wrong about SNAP Work Requirements
They cited my research, so let me respond!
donmoynihan.substack.com
BREAKING: Judge McFadden has *granted * the AP’s injunction against the White House’s ban on access to the Oval Office and East Room.
Google searches for "filing for unemployment": 1/ This thread is inspired by the great @aaronsojourner.org , who is a pioneer (along with @paulgp.com and Elizabeth Pancotti) in nowcasting unemployment insurance claims using Google Trends data.
If I had not cancelled already my monthly donation to @theguardian.com because of the economic illiteracy of their editorial team, this attack on central bank independence would have been the last straw
We should go after all the economists stating “Let $(\Omega , \mathcal{F}, P)$ denote ….” without ever citing Kolmogorov
Noah Williams@bellmanequation.bsky.social · last yr.Possibly the dumbest of the many dumb plagiarism claims nationalpost.com/news/mark-ca...
I wonder how much the commodification of education, at all levels, has to do with it. Thinking and tackling complexity is hard, painful, and frustrating. Hence at odds with "customer" satisfaction. Have humans passed peak brain power? www.ft.com/content/a801... @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
Have humans passed peak brain power?
Data across countries and ages reveal a growing struggle to concentrate, and declining verbal and numerical reasoning
ft.com
On behalf of the ones that still care about facts (and seem to be disappearing), a zillion thanks to the @kiel.institute for putting this together: www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-a...
Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine
The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.
ifw-kiel.de
Automakers warn that Trump tariffs will hike vehicle prices as much as 25% www.reuters.com/business/aut...
Automakers warn that Trump tariffs will hike vehicle prices as much as 25%
A trade group representing nearly all major automakers warned on Tuesday that new 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump will lead to drastic price hikes.
reuters.com
Recently accepted by #QJE, “The Impact of Being Denied a Wanted Abortion on Women and their Children,” by Londoño-Vélez (@jlondonovelez.bsky.social) and Saravia: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
The Impact of Being Denied a Wanted Abortion on Women and Their Children*
Abstract. This paper examines the impact of denying a wanted abortion on women and children in Colombia using high-quality administrative microdata and cre
doi.org
On day 4, this is a new frontier This is NOT cutting off new funds for research (see NIH review suspension) These data were already out the door It COSTS resources to yank it back This is eliminating data access so we can’t see what is happening to us
Peter Bergman@peterbergman.bsky.social · 2y agoJust had our data access rescinded for a projected using federal microdata to study and reduce disparate impact in housing markets.
PLEASE RT :) Submit to the annual Network Science and Economics Conference, the largest US event for network theory and empirical research in and adjacent to economics Deadline Jan 30 (soon!) Conference Apr 11-13 at Stanford
"Audits of high-income taxpayers are more costly, but the additional revenue raised more than offsets the costs...the returns to marginal audits...exceed the returns to average audits...Deterrence...results in the 12:1 return above the 90th percentile." academic.oup.com/qje/article/...
A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distribution*
Abstract. We estimate the returns to IRS audits of taxpayers across the income distribution. We find an additional $1 spent auditing taxpayers above the 90
academic.oup.com
Time for the last teaching fine tuning, so just finished the material for the practical "how to" of robust Bayesian Asset Pricing: christianjulliard.net/bayesian-fac... Pretty happy about my first crack at R Markdown slides -- I will never show again codes in a different format. 🧪
Bayesian Factor Zoo package - Christian Julliard homepage
Bayesian Factor Zoo package The package implements all robust asset pricing methods in Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models, (2023) and Bayesian Fama-MacBeth Regre...
christianjulliard.net
New evidence that it was the economic vibes, stupid open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
A Win for the Vibecession Story
Guess what? Popular economic narratives aren’t reliable
open.substack.com
I think this should be kind of a big deal: Elon Musk tweeting at 1:03am, “Only the AfD can save Germany.” The AfD is Germany’s neo-Nazi party.
Are you on the job market and have very few interview requests (<5, say)? Now is the time to email your advisor and ask for help!
A quadrillion thanks to @eohneberg.bsky.social for porting to Julia the BayesianFactorZoo R package. Julia package: github.com/eohne/Bayesi... R version: cran.r-project.org/web/packages... And our original paper: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... No excuses for sloppy inference anymore ;)
Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models
We propose a novel framework for analyzing linear asset pricing models: simple, robust, and applicable to high-dimensional problems. For a (potentially misspecified) stand-alone model, it provides re....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
I probably shouldn't have called a parasitical racket a parasitical racket paulkrugman.substack.com/p/health-ins...
Health Insurance is a Racket
What value do these companies add, really?
paulkrugman.substack.com
Revised version of our paper with Bo Cowgill and Andrea Prat just out. We document how mergers in the US are followed by large and persistent increases in lobbying activity. Firms with market power also try to gain political power. www.nber.org/papers/w33255
A group of researchers has attempted to replicate our work on self-control and asset market prices published in the Review of Financial Studies (doi.org/10.1093/rfs/...) and not been able confirm our findings. See doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...
Do experimental asset market results replicate? High-powered preregistered replications of 17 claims
Experimental asset markets provide a controlled approach to studying financial markets. We attempt to replicate 17 key results from four prominent studies, coll
doi.org
