Caroline Baxter

@convergingriskslab.bsky.social

Director, Converging Risks Lab, within the Council on Strategic Risks. Former DASD(FE&T) and RAND policy wonk. Come for the foresight, stay for the fun. Yes, I took that photo. It was even cooler than you think. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/crl/

What do you get when you mix climate change, logistics, and fossil fuels, and a war? A Bluesky thread on the convergence between summer drought in Europe, a dam in the Netherlands, Germany's reliance on a single river, and why the US still has to care about climate change. Settle in. (1/11)

Burnout markers in your 40s are different than prior decades. For example, when the power was unexpectedly out at the climbing gym and Boy requested an indoor playground as a backup, I vectored not towards the one nearest us but instead one in some mythical land called King’s Contrivance. …What.

Nathaniel Raymond pioneered the use of satellite imagery for war crime forensics. His alarm about Google's baffling decision is appropriate. I tried it earlier today hoping it would be hard, but in ~65 seconds I'd put a convincing F35 base in Papua New Guinea. Google needs to delete this feature.

Bild

Idle thought: It's a lot easier to eat in tune with the seasons when you don't spend 24hr/day in a climate-controlled box. I've been working with the windows open because it's not boiling hot and lunch was a beefsteak tomato with salt on toast. It was so harmonious it felt like eating the weather.

So September will be 25 years since 9/11 25 years from Pearl Harbor was 1966 which had…Massive civil unrest over racial discrimination/violence and police brutality, and an escalating war with no clear end in sight.

Plus 1500 military forces have been deployed since Saturday to assist, and employees of ArianeGroup (rocket propulsion systems) have been evacuated and companies like Roxel (solid-propellant systems for tactical missiles) and Dassault are in the danger zone. Huge national security implications.

NPR@npr.org · last wk.

French authorities ordered 4,000 more people evacuated from tourist sites along its Atlantic coast, widening what may be France's largest peacetime evacuation. n.pr/4vTV5T4

Inside me are two wolves. One is a young punk who does what she likes. The other is a working parent who gets up two hours before the rest of her household so she can work while it’s quiet. I am feeding this wolf a prepped coffee pot for 5am tomorrow. Still totally punk tho.

A thing I say during public lectures when a kid in my audience starts to randomly fuss: “I’m very good at staying focused when kids make noise so we’re just gonna carry on. And if you’re not good at it, it’s time to learn. Staying on task while kids do their thing is a life skill. Mom, don’t leave.”

Matthew Noe@noethematt.bsky.social · 2w ago

"This might be unpopular but I'd like to discriminate against an entire class of people" If this is you, I hope the next 500 books you try to read are a disappointment.

maybe this is unpopular but I'd love libraries that kids aren't allowed in. truly don't want to be interrupted by running, crying, & yelling while i'm working/reading.

"Kindergarten classrooms in more than 70 percent of counties lack herd immunity." My volcanic response to this aside, sick kids need adult care and not all parents can afford to be home. Vaccines keep adults in the workforce; pandemics punish the vulnerable. www.washingtonpost.com/health/2026/...

As measles cases reach record highs, see your school’s vaccine rates

The share of U.S. counties where 95 percent or more of kindergartners were vaccinated against the disease has dropped to 28 percent, public records show.

washingtonpost.com

On Wednesday, the Pentagon reported on its casualties website that a total of 18 American service members had been killed during the war in Iran. By Thursday, the Defense Department had lowered that number, reporting that 14 American troops had been killed in the war.

Number of U.S. Troop Deaths in Iran War Appears Lower on Pentagon Website

Three military officials and a Pentagon spokesman gave conflicting explanations for why the number of Americans killed in the Iran war had changed.

nytimes.com

Torpedo JCPOA Start war to force "better deal" than JCPOA Close critical waterway instead Allow Saudis to enrich uranium for 30yr in exchange for [prob military access, tbd] Create conditions for nuclear prolif in ME + need for a JCPOA-type deal w/ Saudis Nailed it www.nytimes.com/2026/07/22/w...

Coveted U.S. Nuclear Deal Is a Coup for Saudi Crown Prince

Saudi Arabia had for years sought the controversial deal to transfer American nuclear technology to the kingdom. It is expected to be sealed on Wednesday.

nytimes.com

Exactly this. Obviously, first and foremost, the human cost of this war should be the focus. (2 more service members today and how many civilians?) But also, we need to talk about the readiness impact of this war and how long (and how much $) it’ll take to rebuild after these choices.

Caroline Baxter@convergingriskslab.bsky.social · 2w ago

Training and maintenance are readiness bedrock, generated deliberately over time. And DoD, having now jackhammered that bedrock til the house started collapsing, will spend a generation - during an unstable moment - recreating what took five months to lose. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Training and maintenance are readiness bedrock, generated deliberately over time. And DoD, having now jackhammered that bedrock til the house started collapsing, will spend a generation - during an unstable moment - recreating what took five months to lose. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

The Pentagon, sinking billions into Iran war, is quickly running short on cash

With some funds set to dry up within weeks, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth pressed lawmakers Tuesday to address the increasingly urgent shortfall.

washingtonpost.com