David Rischel

@davidrischel.bsky.social

Average political philosopher

Find this depressing tbh. And ok, the public models can't write (good) philosophy papers on their own yet, but that's surely just a matter of time. Do we maintain phil/maths as distinctly human endeavors? Maybe that will work for a bit, but why keep it at it if the answer is right there?

Zach Weinersmith@zachweinersmith.bsky.social · 3d ago

OpenAI just blooped hundreds of proofs and counterexamples to open problems: github.com/openai/math/... Boggling.

Call me old-fashioned, but I just think that if you are announcing £10bn of spending, then if the Shadow Treasury team and the leader's office are doing their jobs properly, the leader should have clearer answers to these questions:

paulusthewoodgnome@paulusthewoodgnome.bsky.social · 3d ago

"I'm not a defence expert." Even by Kemi Badenoch's lamentable standards, this is agonising. Just give thanks she will never, ever be Prime Minister. 🙏 #politicslive

Also seems pretty clear that the actual thing the Green Party are debating now (rather than the more abstract "is zionism racist?" debate I was seeing on here) is antisemitic fwiw

One of the things I am most annoyed about is that Starmer didn’t take the opportunity of great vibes in 2024 to do a series of contingent policy commitments (we will raise taxes *only if* growth we hope for doesn’t turn up). Because it’s basically designed to address exogenous shocks that we’ve hit.

“Deluded” to think it is at the least, *possible* for a charismatic man to succeed in academia while telling tall tales and with questionable research without a helping hand from “EDI”. Can these people hear themselves?

Ben Mitchell@bmitchellwrites.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Have you seen how EDI operates in workplaces? If it was about furthering diversity, great. But it's so much more than that. And if you don't think the influence of EDI played some role (we can debate how much) in this sorry story, you're deluded.

This week's post: Long term fiscal projections are a good antidote to politicians talking about tax cuts mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/long... If you can get past the hand wringing, the OBR's long term fiscal projections contain useful information that most politicians pretend isn't there.

Long term fiscal projections are a good antidote to politicians talking about tax cuts

Every July the OBR publishes fiscal projections looking fifty years ahead. Each year the headline is the same. The public finances are on...

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

This is a really inadequate Home Office statement in these circumstancds It empathises with this protest as expressing legitimate concerns, singles out violence against police, and simply fails to say "violence threatening asylum seekers, migrants & other minorities is shocking + wrong"

BildBild

Good piece. It's quite obviously academic misconduct (and likely fraud), and it is deeply damaging to our entire profession that some are willing to defend it. Misconduct and fraud are not taken seriously enough by British unis, and we need to think about how to tackle this institutionally.

Rory Waterman@rorywaterman.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Some notes by little me on recent, hugely damaging, shamefully shameless events at Cambridge University. rorywaterman.substack.com/p/notes-on-a-cambridge-debacle If you read only one article about what has happened, try the new piece by Lanre Bakare in the Guardian, linked in my blog post.

Social care - the third rail of British politics Great to see Burnham acting on, rather than just talking about, the social care crisis But there is a real risk that the choices he makes could actually make things worse... 🧵

Here is a moral argument for compulsory voting that I think is powerful, initially stated too strongly for argumentative clarity (see the qualification below): Democracy is about political equality, and political equality is about equalizing political power 1/

Everyone on X and elsewhere who called for a violent response should be charged with incitement. Everyone involved in the pogrom should be locked up with exemplary sentences. Govt should make it clear that will be the response in future anywhere else. Enough.

I get why people see the EU Rejoin question as a difficult one for Burnham - Makerfield is Brexity, the Labour membership is overwhelmingly pro-Rejoin - but I don't think it need be hard to navigate I think I'd tell him to just say "any road to Rejoin must run through Makerfield", or wtte

Portes is right. I have definitely come to see the value in political education, because "emotionally cathartic slopulism" has already taken over the Right and I think it could easily do so on the left too if we don't hold the line on, like, actually insisting that it matters you get things right.

Jonathan Portes@jdportes.bsky.social · 6mo ago

I do understand this view. Austerity as implemented was a disaster (as I said very publicly for a decade) But we are not seeing/have not seen a huge increase in inequality and the idea that there's some soak-the-rich get-out-of-jail-free card just doesn't add up

An arson attack on a Jewish ambulance service isn’t about Israel. It isn’t about Zionism, or American imperialism, or capitalism, or war in the Middle East. It’s about Jews. It’s about making British Jews feel fearful in their own homes. Just like Bondi Beach, and Heaton Park, all over again.

Have no idea of whether this tool actually does what it says, but if it does why, exactly, should it be legal? unis ought to do their bit but why not simply legislate to ban stuff like this? (v ready to be told that there are important reasons to be careful!)

Post nicht verfügbar.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.