The larger-than-usual downward revision last month was in large part driven by a negative skew in the job growth distribution among late reporting firms. That’s unusual, but it’s happened before when the pace of job growth slows rapidly. This print is more evidence that was the case

Ben Casselman@bencasselman.bsky.social · 11mo ago

U.S. employers added 22,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 percent. Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/09... #NumbersDay

Unemployment insurance raises workers' bargaining power and wages, new research from @davidwiczer.bsky.social @atlantafed.org & co-authors. #EconSky www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...

Households often use stimulus checks to repay their debt. How does this affect the effectiveness and design of fiscal policy? Check out the @FacultiNet video where we discuss our joint work with Davide Melcangi, @pilossopher.bsky.social, and @davidwiczer.bsky.social faculti.net/debt-stimulu...

Debt, Stimulus & Household Cash Transfers

If most households use stimulus checks to repay debt, what does that mean for how we design economic policy?

faculti.net

A fun/important little piece with @AtlantaFed colleagues. Our survey center asked firms how exposed their supply chain was to imports. More import-intensive firms expect to raise prices more *and* the more their competitors import,the more they'll raise. www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...

Will Tariffs Touch Off an Inflationary Impulse? Business Execs Think So.

This Policy Hub paper uses survey data to explore tariffs' potential inflationary impact and how it could spill over beyond those firms directly affected.

atlantafed.org

nvm

Peterson Institute for International Economics@piie.com · last yr.

We updated the chart. Average US tariffs on China are now 104.3%. Average China tariffs on the US are now 106.6%. 100% of goods flowing between the world's two largest economies are now subject to tariffs. Details & data here: www.piie.com/research/pii...

The question here is how to read different sources. I think that JOLTS are tricky now because vacancy yields are so low. It can inflate the stock, and we saw that... Fewer hires than would've been expected from this tightness ever since the end of the pandemic.

Preston Mui@prestonmui.bsky.social · 2y ago

I think Bostic is asking the right question right now: "The salient question for me today is whether the labor market is cooling more dramatically than I had imagined when I developed my outlook for the economy." Dwells a lot on @davidwiczer.bsky.social's recent work on vacancy yields.

Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "‘Less is More’: Consumer Spending and the Size of Economic Stimulus Payments" by Michele Andreolli and Paolo Surico. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

‘Less is More’: Consumer Spending and the Size of Economic Stimulus Payments

(Forthcoming Article) - We study the consumption response to unexpected transitory income gains of different size, using hypothetical questions from the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth. ...

aeaweb.org

Huge if true!

Carlos Garriga@carlosgarriga.bsky.social · 2y ago

FRED has added 3 data series (fred.stlouisfed.org/release?rid=...) for the Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer (E2E) Transition Probability. This provides a timely gauge of the pace of worker reallocation in the U.S. labor market. #FRED #LaborMarket #Data #Economics #StLouisFed

My recent op-ed in Project Syndicate (with @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and others) lays out some arguments for why Trump should support a victory in Ukraine. Check it out. Key points summarized below. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a...

Trump’s Best Hope for Peace Is to Support Ukraine | by Tatyana Deryugina, et al - Project Syndicate

Tatyana Deryugina, et al warn that trying to appease Putin could cast the American president-elect as a modern-day Neville Chamberlain.

project-syndicate.org

Pete Buttigieg told Democrats to not allow themselves to be so outraged by the Trump administration that they would neglect working for their constituents. “We cannot be mesmerized by the worst things that we see happening,” Buttigieg said. nyti.ms/3ZiKILz

I love this: tariffs are expected to have an even bigger final goods price effect because of their effects on intermediate input prices...this'll be interesting learning where the market power is, i.e. who passes what through

Jared Bernstein@jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 2y ago

From the very sharp David Mericle at GS Research, here's the impact of a 1 ppt tariff rate increase on core PCE, by channel. What's notable is the production cost impact is larger than the direct consumer cost. There are a lot of tariff fans in denial abt this cost thru intermediate imports.

Authenticating your Bluesky identity involves a custom domain. Given that your RePEc account is authenticated, you can also do it by having your Bluesky handle listed on your RePEc profile. Not perfect, but it works among economists. authors.repec.org #EconSky #RePEc

You can now list your Bluesky account in your RePEc profile, like you already could for Mastodon and Twitter. Log in at the RePEc Author Service, click on "contacts", enter it and save. It will be listed on your profile at IDEAS after the next nightly refresh. authors.repec.org #econsky #RePEc

Fun little Policy Hub piece from Pat Higgins, Melinda Pitts, and me (doi.org/10.29338/ph2...). The basic point was to highlight how concentrated among a few industries was employment growth in the past bit.

Industry-Level Sources for Solid US Employment Growth: Running on Empty or More Room to Run?

This Policy Hub paper examines the recent US labor market, finding that three key sectors are primarily driving ongoing solid growth.

doi.org

Good piece from @jerusalem.bsky.social about how Democrats are on the verge of NIMBYing themselves into being uncompetitive in presidential elections. www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

The Democrats Are Committing Partycide

In the future, even winning the former “Blue Wall” states won’t be enough for the party’s presidential nominees.

theatlantic.com

The Onion, a satirical publication that skewers newsmakers and current events, said on Thursday that it had won a bankruptcy auction to acquire Infowars, a website founded and operated by the conspiracy theorist Alex Jones. nyti.ms/4fqnxEF