Can someone explain the reason for not declaring the result of Round 1 in Greater Manchester? It's standard practice when we count STV.

NI party support continues to converge towards an evenly divided clump.

Devolved Election Projections@devolvedelections.bsky.social · last wk.

Our projection on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll. ☘️ SF — 21 🦁 DUP — 17 🌹 SDLP — 15 🔷 UUP — 14 Ⓣ TUV — 9 🤝 AP — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

Our projection on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll. ☘️ SF — 21 🦁 DUP — 17 🌹 SDLP — 15 🔷 UUP — 14 Ⓣ TUV — 9 🤝 AP — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

Four more great additions to this starter pack – @eoghanly.bsky.social and @ayushi31.bsky.social , founders of @devolvedelections.bsky.social and @irishelection.bsky.social . Welcome to Bluesky! Please follow, share, and as always let me know of other accounts to add 💙 go.bsky.app/EYkze8J

As we await the latest LucidTalk poll, here is our current Nowcast for next May's Assembly election. ☘️ SF — 23 🦁 DUP — 21 🤝 AP — 13 🔷 UUP — 11 🌹 SDLP — 10 Ⓣ TUV — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

Welsh pilots showed that using existing public data, thousands of voters can be added automatically. This smart approach removes the need for individuals to opt-in, making registration seamless and effective. The rest of the UK should follow suit. buff.ly/JDgdxwc

Wales becomes the first UK nation to introduce Automatic Voter Registration

Last week, the Welsh Government laid new regulations to introduce Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) across all 22 Welsh local authorities ahead of the 2027 local elections. This marks a

buff.ly

Our latest projection for the London Assembly in the Evening Standard today! Labour — 11 Seats Greens — 5 Conservatives — 4 Reform — 3 Liberal Democrats — 2 From: @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/london/

Eoghan Kelly@eoghanly.bsky.social · 3w ago

Our latest Mile End Institure/Savanta poll finds Labour on course to win the next Mayor of London election & remain the largest party in the Assembly. @savanta.bsky.social @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...

It's gigantic, well-publicised, deliberate, hate crime. What excuses are loyalist leaders and the English media going to make for it?

Darran Marshall@dmarshall.bsky.social · 4w ago

Police have been asked to act over a replica of a mosque on top of a bonfire in County Tyrone. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

A shirtless white man, in the street with a knife in his hand, having attacked and wounded five people, allegedly shouting anti-Muslim slogans is the sixth story on the BBC UK news page. There is absolutely no doubt at all this would be the lead story if attacker and intended victims were reversed.

Last week far-right terrorists sent children to burn the homes of black people in Belfast. Today a man wandered around Edinburgh attacking Muslims with an ax. We need to stop validating to these racist, terrorist, thugs by pretending that their concerns are 'legitimate'.

55% - 35%. They did not get lucky.

Devolved Election Projections@devolvedelections.bsky.social · 2mo ago

If the end is result is anywhere near 45% Lab - 40% Reform then the pollsters got lucky.

Makerfield's polls are 'herded'. They're nonsense. So we have absolutely no idea who's winning or by how much. 🧵

Last week there were a handful of bigots following orders from terror gangs and foreign agitators. Today there were thousands of us with legitimate concerns about the people who are actually damaging our wee country. #NoPasarán

Teresa Degenhardt@drtdegenhardt.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Belfast against racism and the far right: this is our Belfast!

Thousands have turned out for an Anti-Racism rally in Belfast city centre, organised by United Against Racism and supported by Trade Unions

A wee group of angry balaclava and mask-wearing anti-immigration guys tried to stop the good people of Glasgow showing solidarity with migrants and standing up to racism and fascism. Well, the far right are far outnumbered... #RefugeesWelcome #MigrantsWelcome #NeighboursNotStrangers #Glasgow

You can only come to this view if you: A. Know absolutely nothing about Northern Ireland. B. Are too lazy to use Google. **And** C. Are a racist.

SpinningHugo@spinninghugo.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Really? That is your view? Really?

The family of the Belfast stabbing victim have released a statement saying - like the family of Henry Nowak last week - that the attack should not be used to "divide people or fuel hostility" They condemned disorder and praised the "valuable contribution" by migrants inews.co.uk/news/politic...

If you think the solution to a horrific crime is to commit a bunch of horrific crimes then you are part of the problem. I hope the PSNI come down like a ton of bricks on the orchestrators of last night, not just their 15 year old foot soldiers.

We can also just do both! Standing on the stage is a good tradition, keep it. Having an official website with basic results and Scottish list results is not hard.

Ballot Box Scotland@ballotbox.scot · 2mo ago

It is outrageous that it's 2026 and not just Scotland but basically entire UK has no official source for election results in live time, and indeed we even take pride in our archaic approach, ooh isn't it wonderful watching people line up on a stage, charming, quaint! No! It's a failure to modernise!

Our projection based on the latest Liverpool University poll: ☘️ SF — 25 🦁 DUP — 20 🤝 AP — 15 🔷 UUP — 12 🌹 SDLP — 9 Ⓣ TUV — 5 🌱 GP — 4 Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

🧵A thread on my favourite (and some random guys on Reddit's least favour, most "cringe") thing: how does the 2026 Holyrood election look with various tweaks to the system? Given this was the most disproportionate election thus far per its own rules, what could be done differently?

Clean energy *is* cheaper energy!

YouGov@yougov.co.uk · 2mo ago

65% of Britons agree with Tony Blair's call for the government to stop prioritising "clean energy over cheaper energy" Prioritise preventing increases in energy bills: 65% (no change from Oct 2025) Prioritise removing fossil fuels from energy supply: 24% (+1) yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...

Our projection of Dublin Central (left) compared to real life (right). The system works!

Our calls of Dublin Central and Galway West as polls closed. Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central. irishelections.ie/bye-elections/

Very pleased to have met @devolvedelections.bsky.social over lunch to formally accept the Award For Most Accurate Holyrood 2026 Election Projection (*Amongst Those With Fully Published Vote Share Breakdowns)

We would be better off without the data. Not only are constituency polls deeply unreliable, but if they have any influence on the outcome, that a) is extremely inappropriate and b) will skew our understanding of British politics. drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/if-polls-p...

If polls played a part, then you might be wrong about Gorton and Denton

What the tactical voting story tells us about attempts to explain the by-election result

drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com

Tim Bale@timbale.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Playbook: "Westminster is hotly anticipating some real data from the seat to show how a Burnham vs. Reform race is looking." PolSci people and Pollsters: "There is no, nor can there ever be, any 'real data' worth the name - both constituency polls and canvass returns are notoriously unreliable.

Delighted to be included in the post-election analysis of this year's Scottish election. Calling out MRPs, as is my duty.

Tim Bale@timbale.bsky.social · 3mo ago

"The focus on MRPs throughout the 2026 Holyrood campaign led to fewer polls, cost more money, and produced erratic claims due to some poor, or at least not transparent, methodological practices. The campaign highlights that whilst MRPs can add value, they remain a...fallible source of information."

This has been one of my projects for the past few weeks. I'll make it public once I've ironed out the details so you can see how some of the options work.

Allan Faulds@afaulds.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Very on my brand posting but my work bestie just asked me in the office: how do you do PR in time for next election? Short answer: Wales it. Set a small-ish magnitude constituency size (I would say 5-7 rather than Wales' flat 6, for flexibility), and have a Commission Lego-brick existing seats...

BBS Open Letter on Improving Scottish Parliament Results Reporting An open letter from Ballot Box Scotland urging significant improvements to reporting on Scottish Parliament elections; or, why does a hobbyist publish more data on the regional vote than the BBC?

BBS Open Letter on Improving Scottish Parliament Results Reporting

An open letter from Ballot Box Scotland urging significant improvements to reporting on Scottish Parliament elections; or, why does a hobbyist publish more data than the BBC?

ballotbox.scot

On 7 May 2026, Britain ran a PR experiment: Scottish Parliament: a Mixed-Member Proportional system Welsh Senedd: a (new) Low-Magnitude Party List system Same day, same political context, different outcomes. Which version of PR would be better for Westminster? 🧵