Eoghan Kelly
@eoghanly.bsky.social
Politics PhD and lead of the Polling London project at Queen Mary University of London. Co-Founder of DevolvedElections.co.uk & IrishElections.ie @devolvedelections.bsky.social @irishelection.bsky.social
Our new Scottish Indy Calculator is out today in the @scotnational.bsky.social, move the sliders to shift party supporters and demographics one way or the other. devolvedelections.co.uk/scottish-ind... www.thenational.scot/news/2646638...
New interactive polling tool maps how Scottish independence can be won or lost
A NEW polling tool which maps out how Scottish independence could be won or lost has been launched ...
thenational.scot
Our projection on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll. ☘️ SF — 21 🦁 DUP — 17 🌹 SDLP — 15 🔷 UUP — 14 Ⓣ TUV — 9 🤝 AP — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
What can Andy Burnham actually do? More charisma and better communication skills will be helpful, but what about the structural problems facing the Government? Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social reflects on what's in Burnham's power to do as the new Prime Minister. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
What can Andy Burnham actually do? | LSE British Politics
Andy Burnham might be more charismatic than Keir Starmer but the problems he is inheriting go beyond personality. Can he really make a difference?
blogs.lse.ac.uk
Our latest projection for the London Assembly in the Evening Standard today! Labour — 11 Seats Greens — 5 Conservatives — 4 Reform — 3 Liberal Democrats — 2 From: @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/london/
Eoghan Kelly@eoghanly.bsky.social · last mo.Our latest Mile End Institure/Savanta poll finds Labour on course to win the next Mayor of London election & remain the largest party in the Assembly. @savanta.bsky.social @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Our latest Mile End Institure/Savanta poll finds Labour on course to win the next Mayor of London election & remain the largest party in the Assembly. @savanta.bsky.social @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Sadiq Khan 'on course' to win fourth term as London Mayor
Exclusive: Sir Sadiq would be re-elected to City Hall in 2028 after second preference votes are transferred, according to a new poll
standard.co.uk
Our projection based on the latest RedC / @businesspost.bsky.social poll ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 36 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32 🟪 Social Democrats — 28 💬 Independent — 10 🌹 Labour — 7 🟢 Independent Ireland — 7 ✊ PBP-S — 5 🌳 Aontú — 4 🌱 Green — 1 irishelections.ie
1/5 Delighted to say that my first book, Explaining Northern Ireland Party Stances on the EU: Dividing Lines Before and After Brexit, is now available for pre-order with Routledge. It’s been a long road, and I’m very glad to be able to share it. www.routledge.com/Explaining-N...
Explaining Northern Ireland Party Stances on the EU: Dividing Lines Before and After Brexit
This book explores the European stances of three of Northern Ireland’s political parties, culminating in one of the most tumultuous episodes in recent UK, Irish, and European politics. It examines how...
routledge.com
Our calls of Dublin Central and Galway West as polls closed. Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central. irishelections.ie/bye-elections/
"The focus on MRPs throughout the 2026 Holyrood campaign led to fewer polls, cost more money, and produced erratic claims due to some poor, or at least not transparent, methodological practices. The campaign highlights that whilst MRPs can add value, they remain a...fallible source of information."
MRPs: A false dawn - UK Election Analysis
Dr Eoghan Kelly Postdoctoral Researcher leading the Mile End Institute’s, Queen Mary University of London’s Polling London Project. He has lectured on quantitative methods at Queen’s University, Belfa...
electionanalysis.uk
I have some polling-retrospective content coming out later this week, but I can't do much better on the Q of MRPs than @eoghanly.bsky.social. On aggregate, they were useless and negatively impacted election coverage.
Tim Bale@timbale.bsky.social · 3mo ago"The focus on MRPs throughout the 2026 Holyrood campaign led to fewer polls, cost more money, and produced erratic claims due to some poor, or at least not transparent, methodological practices. The campaign highlights that whilst MRPs can add value, they remain a...fallible source of information."
We ran the election 1000 times using the Monte Carlo method, these are the most likely outcomes for each constituency. You can instantly run 1000 more variations here: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Exclusive: Polling suggests the SNP is clinging to leads in three Edinburgh seats. But the Lib Dems and Greens are in pursuit. And projections suggest it is just as "reasonably likely" that the SNP loses or wins all three. @heraldscotland.bsky.social www.heraldscotland.com/news/2606185...
SNP could be set for major losses in three Edinburgh battleground constituencies
The SNP faces significant challenges from the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Green Party in four regional constituencies.
heraldscotland.com
In our Monte Carlo system, which tests 1000x variations of the election, Reform win the most seats 59% of the time with Plaid Cymru winning 41%. Their mean number of seats is just 1 more than Plaid's so its very, very close. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Our Monte Carlo system which runs 1000 variations of this election generally finds: SNP 58-62 Reform 18-22 Lab 16-18 Green 10-13, Con 10-12 LD 9-11 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...
On the topic of MRPs being effectively useless, I think the Telegraph/JL Poll messed up their own D'Hondt calculations. The real numbers are: SNP: 57 Labour:21 Conservatives: 13 Liberal Democrats: 8 Greens: 11 Reform: 19 This is really basic stuff.
The least densely populated census areas according to the latest census: Garrison & Belcoo When I tell people I'm from the middle of nowhere, I mean it.
trying to do a NYT-style swing map but the swings are too mad
National Parliament Election in Hungary today 🇭🇺 🇪🇺 Turnout as of 9 a.m. is significantly higher than in previous elections. Plotting the 2026–2022 turnout change against Fidesz–KDNP's 2022 vote share reveals no clear pattern. #Hungary Explore live: europeelects.eu/2026/04/04/n...
The latest in our party by party analysis: Prepping for Opposition: Reform in Wales devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/reform-...
We've got a new addition to the system to show how much uncertainty there is in this - and any - projection. Picture 1 is our current Welsh Nowcast. Pictures 2 & 3 are the same numbers but with Random Regional Variaton added. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Devolved Elections is delighted to announce a partnership with @electheruk.bsky.social to project the number of female candidates for the upcoming Scottish and Welsh elections. Currently, we expect Scotland to have a much more even gender split than Wales. devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/devolve...
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
devolvedelections.co.uk
Resharing my new article “The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives” @eoghanly.bsky.social @muirismac.bsky.social @qubelfastofficial.bsky.social @ballioloxford.bsky.social @politicsoxford.bsky.social www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives
This article examines the progress made in reforming the Northern Ireland Civil Service in the wake of the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal and resulting inquiry. It uses Northern Ireland Audit Off...
tandfonline.com
Personally, I'd have gone with the fact that "one in five (22%) also supported it for non-white citizens whose parents were born in the UK" for the headline. 😱
Most Reform members believe non-white UK citizens born abroad should be forced or encouraged to leave, poll finds
Nigel Farage’s recent efforts to woo centre-ground voters may cause tension in party’s right flank, says Hope Not Hate
theguardian.com
We have a new system almost ready to go which accounts for the fact that a lot of Green voters won't have a Green candidate on the ballot. We'll launch it once the Greens confirm which seats they're contesting. If anyone has the list please send it over!
People are welcome to make projections based on whatever method they like. But, the entirely unsurprising claim that 25% of Labour voters prefer the SNP to Reform does not mean they will go out and vote for the SNP in places Reform have never stood a candidate!
James Heale@jaheale.bsky.social · 6mo agoNew Times/Stonehaven MRP poll out puts SNP on course for a majority in the 129-strong Scottish parliament: SNP – 67 MSPs (+3) Reform – 25 MSPs (+25) Labour – 15 MSPs (-7) Lib Dems – 8 MSPs (+4) Tory - 7 MSPs (-24) Green – 7 MSPs (-1) Changes compared to 2021
For those interested in devolution and public policy disasters, this is an interesting paper on the 'cash for ash' scandal, the RHI inquiry and what the crisis and the response to the inquiry tells us about Northern Ireland's governance #devolution #stormont
The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives
This article examines the progress made in reforming the Northern Ireland Civil Service in the wake of the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal and resulting inquiry. It uses Northern Ireland Audit Off...
tandfonline.com
Scotland is about to demonstrate how badly FPTP performs when you through a load of parties at it, fortunately the regional list will mask it a bit. At Westminster there is no List to hide the absurdity of these results.
Devolved Election Projections@devolvedelections.bsky.social · 6mo agoFPTP can't handle this many parties, and thats how the constituency seats are awarded. I believe Eastwood is out lowest winning vote share but a good 20+ are being won with under 35% of the vote. A selection of the most egregious:
Our projection on the latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social poll for May's Scottish Parliament election: 🎗️ SNP — 57 🌹 Lab — 18 🌳 Con — 12 🌱 GP — 10 🐤 LD — 12 ➡️ Ref — 20 🔵 Alba — 0 ⚪Other — 0 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Delighted to see my new article, co-authored with @eoghanly.bsky.social and @muirismac.bsky.social, published today! Title: 'The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives' Read it open access here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives
This article examines the progress made in reforming the Northern Ireland Civil Service in the wake of the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal and resulting inquiry. It uses Northern Ireland Audit Off...
tandfonline.com
