In our Westminster Monte Carlo sim you can now see how our projection has changed over time. It's been running silently for about three weeks and there's been a steady improvement for Labour. We also have a way of seeing how senior MPs are doing.
Eoghan Kelly
@eoghanly.bsky.social
Politics PhD and lead of the Polling London project at Queen Mary University of London. Co-Founder of DevolvedElections.co.uk & IrishElections.ie @devolvedelections.bsky.social @irishelection.bsky.social
I am so pleased to see this paper finally out, and just on time for the upcoming Spanish elections. Here, we ask when would voters be willing to elect a candidate pushing for undemocratic policies. We focus on overriding the judiciary as the main mechanism. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
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Our projection on the latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social poll for the NI Assembly ☘️ SF — 29 🦁 DUP — 20 🔷 UUP — 12 🤝 AP — 9 🌹 SDLP — 9 Ⓣ TUV — 7 🌱 GP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 2 Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
Is British politics uniquely short-termist? Voters seem to think so. @philipjcowley.bsky.social @karlpike.bsky.social and I just released @mileendinstitute.bsky.social polling on political short/long-termism across Europe. The UK stands out from its neighbours. www.qmul.ac.uk/mei/research...
One oft overlooked problem with the “Burnham should call an early election” narrative is the collapse of Labour in both Scotland and Wales. Even with the modest recent poll recovery, Labour looks certain to lose dozens of seats - and losing almost all their seats outside Eng is a real risk
Devolved Election Projections@devolvedelections.bsky.social · 3w agoUsing our new Westminster model on the latest @survation.bsky.social poll of Scotland for the @snp.org we project: 🎗️ SNP — 46 seats 🔶 LD — 5 🌳 Con — 3 🌹 Lab — 3 The SNP are swamping Labour as they did in 2015, 2017 and 2019 Make your own on devolvedelections.co.uk/westminster/
The Tories nudge ahead of Reform on seats in our Nowcast as Reform's slump continues. Labour are out in front. 🌹 Lab — 296 🌳 Con — 109 ➡️ Ref — 96 🔶 LD — 72 🎗️ SNP — 45 🌼 PC — 8 ☘️ SF — 7 🌱 GPEW — 4 🔷 UUP — 4 🦁 DUP — 3 ⚫ Ind — 2 🌹 SDLP — 2 ⚪ Other — 1 Ⓣ TUV — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/westminster/
Our first DevolvedElections Westminster projection on recent polling: 🌹 Lab — 301 ➡️ Reform — 121 🌳 Con — 77 🔶 LD — 72 🏴 SNP — 45 🐉 PC — 8 ☘️ SF — 7 🌱 Green — 4 🔷 UUP — 4 🦁 DUP — 3 ⚫ Ind — 3 🌹 SDLP — 2 ⚪ Speaker — 1 ⬅ Restore — 1 Ⓣ TUV — 1 From devolvedelections.co.uk/westminster/
Our Westminster model, going live tomorrow, has Labour winning Holborn & St Pancras by about 45% to 30% (Adding together Green and Feinstein). This is a general election model not a by-election model so candidates aren't considered.
Three of the UK’s four nations are led by parties advocating a split. Which is most likely to go? theconversation.com/three-of-the...
Three of the UK’s four nations are led by parties advocating a split. Which is most likely to go?
New prime minister Andy Burnham is facing renewed calls for independence votes.
theconversation.com
Sorry to be a (Conservative) party pooper, but
The Keminaissance is a myth. The Tories are still like a weird uncle.
Badenoch’s increasing tendency towards being ‘extremely online’ has led the party to paint itself into an ‘anti-woke’ corner that, to the majority of Brits who do not spend much time online…
centrewrite.brightblue.org.uk
Thanks to @irishtimes.com for publishing this article by @dkennytcd.bsky.social and me on the criteria for calling a border poll. www.irishtimes.com/politics/202... #BorderPoll #Ireland #BorderPoll #SpéirGorm #NorthernIreland #UKPolitics #IrishPolitics
How would a Border poll on Irish unity get called in Northern Ireland?
The Belfast Agreement sets out rules for calling a unity referendum, but is vague on some details
irishtimes.com
A useful guide to anyone interested in Electoral Reform in Ireland. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are on the way.
Ireland Election Projections@irishelection.bsky.social · 2mo agoWe've added a new (optional) table which lets you see what would happen if Irish elections were run under different systems. Here is 2024: irishelections.ie/general/
90 years ago, Parliament responded to the rise of Oswald Mosley's Blackshirts by passing the Public Order Act, which banned political uniforms, private militias and the threat of force for political objects. The debates make very resonant reading today. Here's the Liberal Robert Bernays. (Short 🧵)
Our projection on the latest Ireland Thinks / @independent.ie poll: ☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 40 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 🌳 Aontú — 8 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 🌹 Labour — 7 💬 Independent — 6 Make your own on: irishelections.ie/general/
I for one am shocked to hear that JL Partners are involved in this. I just wish there had been warning signs and that someone had contacted the Telegraph about at the time. Or written about it in the Election Report. www.electionanalysis.uk/scottish-ele...
Futurama Fry: I Am Shocked, Not That Shocked
ALT: Futurama Fry: I Am Shocked, Not That Shocked
static.klipy.com
Allan Faulds@afaulds.bsky.social · 2mo agoQuick quick @devolvedelections.bsky.social we have more reason to be scathing about JL Partners and the Telegraph apart from "publishing not simply odd but quite literally incorrectly calculated MRP figures for Holyrood and the Senedd"
More from our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social in the @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy The seat projection is from a forthcoming tool on @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Full list of seats Labour 'could lose in London' to Reform, Tory and Green surge
City’s political map set to be transformed by fragmentation of British politics
standard.co.uk
More from our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social poll: Labour are stabilising under Burnham, but are still down from 2024 which will cost seats. This includes a sneak peak at an upcoming projection from @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Reform, Tories and Greens to hammer Labour with 'loss of up to 18 London MPs'
Tories could gain eight seats, the Greens four and Reform three from Labour
standard.co.uk
More from @mileendinstitute.bsky.social polling the @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy today, this time on who's voting for Reform. www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Revealed: The surprise Londoners backing Nigel Farage's Reform
Reform voters in the capital may not be as old as many people might think
standard.co.uk
Our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social poll leads the Standard this morning, Labour have a solid lead in the next London mayoral race. The Tories and Reform scrapping for second. www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Sadiq Khan may face Laila Cunningham in London mayor race run-off, shock poll reveals
Nigel Farage’s party may beat the Conservatives in the battle for second place after first choice votes are counted in the next London mayoral contest
standard.co.uk
Our new Scottish Indy Calculator is out today in the @scotnational.bsky.social, move the sliders to shift party supporters and demographics one way or the other. devolvedelections.co.uk/scottish-ind... www.thenational.scot/news/2646638...
New interactive polling tool maps how Scottish independence can be won or lost
A NEW polling tool which maps out how Scottish independence could be won or lost has been launched ...
thenational.scot
Our projection on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll. ☘️ SF — 21 🦁 DUP — 17 🌹 SDLP — 15 🔷 UUP — 14 Ⓣ TUV — 9 🤝 AP — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
What can Andy Burnham actually do? More charisma and better communication skills will be helpful, but what about the structural problems facing the Government? Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social reflects on what's in Burnham's power to do as the new Prime Minister. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
What can Andy Burnham actually do? | LSE British Politics
Andy Burnham might be more charismatic than Keir Starmer but the problems he is inheriting go beyond personality. Can he really make a difference?
blogs.lse.ac.uk
Our latest projection for the London Assembly in the Evening Standard today! Labour — 11 Seats Greens — 5 Conservatives — 4 Reform — 3 Liberal Democrats — 2 From: @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/london/
Eoghan Kelly@eoghanly.bsky.social · 4mo agoOur latest Mile End Institure/Savanta poll finds Labour on course to win the next Mayor of London election & remain the largest party in the Assembly. @savanta.bsky.social @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Our latest Mile End Institure/Savanta poll finds Labour on course to win the next Mayor of London election & remain the largest party in the Assembly. @savanta.bsky.social @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Sadiq Khan 'on course' to win fourth term as London Mayor
Exclusive: Sir Sadiq would be re-elected to City Hall in 2028 after second preference votes are transferred, according to a new poll
standard.co.uk
Our projection based on the latest RedC / @businesspost.bsky.social poll ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 36 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32 🟪 Social Democrats — 28 💬 Independent — 10 🌹 Labour — 7 🟢 Independent Ireland — 7 ✊ PBP-S — 5 🌳 Aontú — 4 🌱 Green — 1 irishelections.ie
1/5 Delighted to say that my first book, Explaining Northern Ireland Party Stances on the EU: Dividing Lines Before and After Brexit, is now available for pre-order with Routledge. It’s been a long road, and I’m very glad to be able to share it. www.routledge.com/Explaining-N...
Explaining Northern Ireland Party Stances on the EU: Dividing Lines Before and After Brexit
This book explores the European stances of three of Northern Ireland’s political parties, culminating in one of the most tumultuous episodes in recent UK, Irish, and European politics. It examines how...
routledge.com
Our calls of Dublin Central and Galway West as polls closed. Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central. irishelections.ie/bye-elections/
"The focus on MRPs throughout the 2026 Holyrood campaign led to fewer polls, cost more money, and produced erratic claims due to some poor, or at least not transparent, methodological practices. The campaign highlights that whilst MRPs can add value, they remain a...fallible source of information."
MRPs: A false dawn - UK Election Analysis
Dr Eoghan Kelly Postdoctoral Researcher leading the Mile End Institute’s, Queen Mary University of London’s Polling London Project. He has lectured on quantitative methods at Queen’s University, Belfa...
electionanalysis.uk
I have some polling-retrospective content coming out later this week, but I can't do much better on the Q of MRPs than @eoghanly.bsky.social. On aggregate, they were useless and negatively impacted election coverage.
Tim Bale@timbale.bsky.social · 6mo ago"The focus on MRPs throughout the 2026 Holyrood campaign led to fewer polls, cost more money, and produced erratic claims due to some poor, or at least not transparent, methodological practices. The campaign highlights that whilst MRPs can add value, they remain a...fallible source of information."