I built a simulator of seat allocation for the upcoming Spanish general election, based on polls and past results. You can also plug in your own hypotheses and explore different scenarios regarding the configuration of the left-wing lists. ja.cat/simulador29n
Javier Martínez-Cantó
@javiermcanto.bsky.social
César Nombela Research Fellow at @ipp-csic.bsky.social. Before: @europeatharvard.bsky.social, @ibei.org, @uni-konstanz.de, @uni-bamberg.de. Studying political representation, party politics & legislatures. www.javiermcanto.es
Es gibt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Aber es gibt auch Mecklenburg und Vorpommern. Wie wir heute Abend voraussichtlich wieder sehen werden, unterscheiden sich beide Regionen deutlich in ihrem Wahlverhalten. Woher kommen diese Unterschiede? Ein Thread mit Daten aus dem Kaiserreich bis heute. 🧵
Coming to the end of the @ecpr.bsky.social General Conference in Krakow! Four papers presented with my wonderful co-authors — Jean-Baptiste Harguindéguy, @danicetra.bsky.social @javiermcanto.bsky.social, Emma Turiño & Sebastian Ziegler. Amazing discussions, new ideas, and inspiring conversations.
📢 New paper out FirstView @bjpols.bsky.social "Calculation and Conscience: : Motivations for the Substantive Representation of Ethnic Minorities" with Stephnie Zonszein , Apurav Bhatiya & William Dinneen
4 X Postdoctoral Fellowships #ECPRMemberJobs 🎓 Doctoral degree granted between 30 September 2024 and 1 October 2026 🏫 Universität Konstanz ⌛ Monday 12 October 🔗 buff.ly/mRkXCDp #PolSciJobs #PoliSky #AcademicSky
https://www.uni-konstanz.de/zukunftskolleg/fellowships/postdoctoral-fellowship/?utm_source=brevo&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Jobs-Aug-26&utm_id=2322
uni-konstanz.de
Este artículo explica cómo está diseñado el sistema universitario español y por qué nuestras universidades no pueden competir en el ranking de Shanghái: muchas de las cosas que este ranking premia no existen en España, no por casualidad, sino por diseño. www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2026-...
Por qué las universidades de andar por casa se caen de los ‘rankings’ (y quizá dé igual)
Ocho universidades españolas han desaparecido este año del ranking de Shanghái. Casi todas son pequeñas, provinciales y de proximidad: castigadas por su tamaño en una lista que mide el volumen investigador, pero insustituibles para muchas familias
elconfidencial.com
Hallan en el Archivo Militar de Ávila el que podría ser el primer Estatuto de Autonomía de Asturias dozz.es/_k4q53
Hallan en el Archivo Militar de Ávila el que podría ser el primer Estatuto de Autonomía de Asturias
dozz.es
Unsere Prognosen für die drei Landtagswahlen im September sind ab sofort online. In Sachsen-Anhalt liegt die AfD in Umfragen bei über 40 Prozent — aber reicht es für eine absolute Mehrheit der Sitze? Die klassische Sonntagsfrage kann diese Frage nicht beantworten.
Did Nazi marches persuade or polarize voters? In 1932 Hamburg, full exposure raised Nazi vote share by ~1 pp (18% of citywide gain), but only by widening divides: support rose in Nazi-leaning areas and fell in opposition areas. Spillovers made up ~half the effect. academic.oup.com/jeea/advance...
🚨New Data🚨 We just released the "Machine-translated ParlSpeech V2" on Harvard Dataverse! It contains 3.5M parliamentary speeches from 7 countries (AT, CZ, DE, DK, ES, NL, SE) translated into English using open-source models. w/ Adam Černý @chrauh.bsky.social @janschwalbach.bsky.social ⬇️
Ukraine Foreign Affairs Minister: "We have detected intensive Russian propaganda campaign across Europe using pictures from Ceuta to sow destabilisation." Far-right from EU (& US!) falls with open eyes for hybrid threats from the weaponisation of migration, even fan the flames. #unity #solidarity
It's not like the old owner of CBS (Paramount), Shari Redstone, was a saint. But she had an incentive to maintain the audience, advertisers, and some semblance of journalistic reputation. As a _common owner_, Ellison has greater incentive to cozy up to the administration even if it kills CBS.
Cecilia Vega describes what life at 60 Minutes was like under Bari Weiss, in the weeks before CBS fired her. Short version: One of the most disastrous debuts in modern journalism history. Via @oliverdarcy.bsky.social www.status.news/p/cecilia-ve...
The #UniKonstanz Senate and University Council elected @leuffen.bsky.social, a political scientist and current Vice Rector for Research, Innovation and Impact at the University of Konstanz, to succeed Katharina Holzinger. Details: t1p.de/udjt4
📊 El Barómetro del CEO de hoy: Aliança Catalana ya compite con ERC por la 2ª posición y Junts cae. Sumando a Vox, la derecha radical rozaría el 28% del Parlament. Hace poco, analizamos el fenómeno en el ICPS, con foco en el papel de la inmigración. 📄 www.icps.cat/archivos/Qua...
Ayer clausuramos la ☀️ IPP Summer School '26 ☀️ Tres intensas jornadas de formación, intercambio de ideas y aprendizaje. ¡Gracias a @albertomarquez.bsky.social, Ernesto Ganuza, @giselahg.bsky.social, @chalsito.bsky.social, @javiermcanto.bsky.social, @isabelrodrz.bsky.social y a todos los asistentes!
🚨 New paper! Does social integration change how minorities vote? Classic theories say yes: voting patterns should converge with the majority. But looking at Muslim Turks in Germany, we found the exact opposite. A thread on the integration puzzle 👇
In a new post, I pull data from four different sources --- arXiv, NBER working papers, SSRN, and the AEA --- to look at how much working paper growth and submissions have changed with the growth of AI. paulgp.substack.com/p/the-number...
📢 Quins factors expliquen l'ascens de la dreta radical a Catalunya? Qui la vota? Quins discursos connecten amb una part creixent de la ciutadania? El 10 de juny presentaré a l'ICPS el quadern que he coescrit amb @julitudo.bsky.social Inscripcions: www.icps.cat/fd-inscripci... #Vox #AliançaCatalana
65.2 🫐 Are MP's putting their best foot(print) forward? 👣 @lucasgeese.bsky.social and @chantal-st.bsky.social use rare data to understand the impact carbon footprint of voters has on an MPs #Decarbonisation focus asking whether politician's prioritise #NetZero, or electoral gains🌍️
High emissions, low engagement? How members of parliament represent the carbon footprint of their constituents | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
High emissions, low engagement? How members of parliament represent the carbon footprint of their constituents - Volume 65 Issue 2
buff.ly
¿Hay estudios sobre el cambio electoral en Andalucía durante la última década? Tengo la impresión de que es un fenómeno más estructural que el desgaste por los ERE o los casi 30 años de gobierno socialista. elpais.com/espana/elecc...
elpais.com
¿Por qué demoler un monumento brutalista como San Siro para construir un estadio con estética de la NBA? El problema no es el estadio: es que quieren más palcos VIP. . www.ft.com/content/bbf1...
Milan’s San Siro stadium is unique. So why is it set to be demolished?
It is one of football’s most dramatic modern arenas — but both its brutal beauty and its cultural legacy are threatened
ft.com
🆕 Is this what you wanted? 🆘 @simonotjes.bsky.social, @sgparliaments.bsky.social's convenor David Willumsen, & Michael Jankowski find that increasingly complex multi-party systems may be leaving the 'winning' voter dissatisfied in the #Coalition's that form 😒
How the coalition formation process and coalition preferences shape satisfaction with democracy | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
How the coalition formation process and coalition preferences shape satisfaction with democracy
buff.ly
Solo quedan 2 meses para la 2ª edición de nuestra ☀️ IPP Summer School ☀️ Del 6 al 8 de julio en Fregenal de la Sierra, Badajoz. Con Ernesto Ganuza, @giselahg.bsky.social, @chalsito.bsky.social, @javiermcanto.bsky.social e @isabelrodrz.bsky.social Inscripciones abiertas: forms.gle/DkzVam6BpyN5...
New podcast on Hungary's morning after. We discuss what the post-Orbán transition tells us about Europe's far-right landscape, and why professional-class enthusiasm about the death of illiberalism is running ahead of structural reality. twentyfourtwo.substack.com/p/peter-magy...
From our FirstView: When the Church Votes Left: How Progressive Bishops Supported the Workers’ Party in Brazil by GUADALUPE TUÑÓN doi.org/10.1017/S000...
The special issue of @cpsjournal.bsky.social “Back from the Brink: Countering Illiberalism in Liberal Democracies”, co-edited by myself and Isabela Mares, was just published. The issue includes 8 articles, many of which set new research agendas. A🧵w/overview 1/10 journals.sagepub.com/toc/CPS/curr...
Comparative Political Studies - Volume 59, Number 6
Table of contents for Comparative Political Studies, 59, 6
journals.sagepub.com
El miércoles en el Seminario del @ipp-csic.bsky.social IPP-CSIC, @llschenoni.bsky.social nos presenta "Bringing War Back In" (Cambridge UP, 2024): cómo las guerras del siglo XIX moldearon el Estado en América Latina. ¡Os esperamos! #CienciaPolítica #AméricaLatina
The Blackness scale might be one of my favorite parts of the paper. People often talk about identity as continuous (“She’s Black, but she ain’t Black Black”), so we developed a way to capture that perception. We then estimate how much different traits predict those ratings.
One of the measures in the paper is a Blackness scale that asks respondents to place profiles along a continuum from 0 (not at all Black) to 10 (very Black). Perhaps inspired by a 2007 Saturday Night Live sketch that introduced its own “Blackness Scale” in the context of Barack Obama’s candidacy.
As major news outlets including USA Today Co. and the New York Times restrict the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine from archiving their stories, journalists and advocacy groups are rallying to protect the vast collection of web pages.
The Internet's Most Powerful Archiving Tool Is in Peril
As major news outlets cut off the Wayback Machine, journalists and advocacy groups are rallying to protect the Internet Archive’s vast collection of web pages.
wired.com