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Natalie Jackson

@nataliej.bsky.social

93 Posts11978 Follower238 Folgt
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Natalie Jackson@nataliej.bsky.social · last yr.

I (+ coauthors) published research in 2014 showing how "professional" respondents had less political interest (i.e., they're there for the incentives) than those who only took one or two (i.e., probably in it because they're interested). This would be a great dataset for replicating that finding.

Drew Engelhardt@amengel.bsky.social · last yr.

Fun metadata piece in the 2024 ANES pilot survey that I only just came across. They include how many previous YouGov surveys respondents had taken before this Feb 2024 survey. One of the respondents had taken 1966!

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Natalie Jackson@nataliej.bsky.social · last yr.

There's no evidence so far that staffing shortages had anything to do with the Texas flood tragedy. I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...

Everyone is worried about natural disasters. Most don’t think one will happen to them.

Catastrophic flooding in Texas triggers debate about warnings, but will anything change?

nationaljournal.com

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Natalie Jackson@nataliej.bsky.social · last yr.

There's no evidence so far that staffing shortages had anything to do with the Texas flood tragedy. I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...

Everyone is worried about natural disasters. Most don’t think one will happen to them.

Catastrophic flooding in Texas triggers debate about warnings, but will anything change?

nationaljournal.com

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Natalie Jackson@nataliej.bsky.social · last yr.

Support-oppose for strikes in Iran: YouGov 35-46 (-11) Ipsos 36-45 (-9) CNN 44-56 (-12) What's the difference? CNN doesn't have an explicit DK option. If you look at nets, it's basically the same result across all three polls - opposition outpaces support by 9-12 pts.

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Natalie Jackson@nataliej.bsky.social · last yr.

10 years after the golden escalator, public opinion looks quite different. Some of this was in progress, but Trump accelerated it. We're more closely divided, and it changes how we look at polls. Read my @nationaljournal.com column this week to see how. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728814/aft...

After 10 years of Trump, analyzing polls has become a different game

Everything you knew is wrong. Black is white, up is down, and short is long.

nationaljournal.com

Ozan Kuru@ozankuru.bsky.social · last yr.

"Rather than “this is what people think,” it’s more like: “This is what a bot army thinks … based on what a developer (likely not a political person) told them … which they’re not about to reveal to you. It’s the secret sauce!""

NNatalie Jackson@nataliej.bsky.social · last yr.

My latest column. @nationaljournal.com You have to talk to real humans to do public opinion work. Humans don't always act rationally. You can't model everything. As for that claim AI is better? In 2024 AI polling did... exactly the same as real polling. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728676/ai-...

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Natalie Jackson@nataliej.bsky.social · 2y ago

The key here is that GOP voters are still largely on board with tariffs. If they shift, congresscritters will start to flee the ship to avoid primary challenges (since most are in safe seats). Right now, though, the primary risk is going against Trump. Just ask Cornyn.

National Journal@nationaljournal.com · 2y ago

While a handful of congressional Republicans have joined efforts to bring tariff-policy powers back to the legislative branch, most are waiting and watching. @nataliej.bsky.social with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):