The biggest question is whether the polls have the electorate right or are undercounting Republicans who aren't excited about voting this year but might still turn out. Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/733150/her...

Here’s what to know about the possibility of midterm polling error

It really does all come down to turnout. But read on for the wonky stuff.

nationaljournal.com

Democrats’ views of capitalism are nearly as positive as their views of socialism when they are given simple definitions of the two economic systems, according to new data from Centerline Research & Strategy. (@nataliej.bsky.social) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/261014-top...

In the latest LEADING INDICATORS, Natalie Jackson writes that, according to Pew, an increasing # of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are uncomfortable with parts of Trump's agenda, including 4 in 10 who say he improperly encouraged probes of political opponents. Read on:

Four in 10 Republicans think Trump improperly encouraged investigations

GOP opinion is more nuanced than just lemmings following their leader.

njour.nl

Politics is more divisive and personal for young people because our current political environment is all they’ve known. Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/729603/cha...

Charlie Kirk’s suspected killer is 22 years old, and that’s not unusual

Young people are growing up in a toxic stew of violence and existential politics. They’re not OK.

nationaljournal.com

I'm presenting an AAPOR webinar on Thursday on best practices. portal.aapor.org/integratedEv.... This will draw on five years of AAPOR presentations, plus hot off the press findings from surveys we fielded at the end of August.

It is incredibly simple to acknowledge that violence in any form is awful and erodes society.

On midterm conventions, plus so many links @mattglassman312.bsky.social @normornstein.bsky.social @mirandayaver.bsky.social @smotus.bsky.social @dcinbox.bsky.social @dandrezner.bsky.social @johnsides.bsky.social @nataliej.bsky.social and more goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/midterm-co...

Midterm (Convention) Madness

Plus all the links.

goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com

The fact that the current HHS secretary is an anti-vaxxer isn’t the original sin; his ability to rise to prominence shows just how much the system was already broken by misinformation. Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/729480/rfk...

RFK Jr.’s rise is a symptom of a long-term systemic illness

Mandates and mistrust supercharged the anti-vax movement.

nationaljournal.com

We asked D.C. residents what they think about Trump's takeover of local police and deployment of troops/federal agents, along with crime, statehood, the mayor and related issues wapo.st/45EHfZQ

Most D.C. residents oppose Trump’s city police takeover, poll finds

Though crime continues to be a concern, most residents don’t think Trump’s actions will make D.C. safer, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll.

wapo.st

Running into stationary objects can be painful, according to a recent pole.

AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer aapor.org/statements/a...

AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer - AAPOR

On behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), we write to express deep concern regarding the removal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Erika McE...

aapor.org

This chart from @pewresearch.org intrigued me. For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I mused on the disconnect between president and personal lives: Maybe the political news they hear doesn't seem relevant to their daily lives? Read more here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729049/ame...

I (+ coauthors) published research in 2014 showing how "professional" respondents had less political interest (i.e., they're there for the incentives) than those who only took one or two (i.e., probably in it because they're interested). This would be a great dataset for replicating that finding.

Drew Engelhardt@amengel.bsky.social · last yr.

Fun metadata piece in the 2024 ANES pilot survey that I only just came across. They include how many previous YouGov surveys respondents had taken before this Feb 2024 survey. One of the respondents had taken 1966!

This chart from @pewresearch.org intrigued me. For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I mused on the disconnect between president and personal lives: Maybe the political news they hear doesn't seem relevant to their daily lives? Read more here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729049/ame...

I would like a conversion rate for what running 5.5 miles in an absolute hot soupy swamp translates to in normal miles. It has to be around 8 based on effort expended. #marathontraining

There's no evidence so far that staffing shortages had anything to do with the Texas flood tragedy. I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...

Everyone is worried about natural disasters. Most don’t think one will happen to them.

Catastrophic flooding in Texas triggers debate about warnings, but will anything change?

nationaljournal.com

There's no evidence so far that staffing shortages had anything to do with the Texas flood tragedy. I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...

Everyone is worried about natural disasters. Most don’t think one will happen to them.

Catastrophic flooding in Texas triggers debate about warnings, but will anything change?

nationaljournal.com

I wrote my @nationaljournal.com column this week on the disappearing Republican middle, with thanks to Sen. Murkowski for providing case-in-point this afternoon. No one wants to be a dead armadillo in Congress. Trump has made it even worse. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728927/you...

'You’re roadkill in the middle'

Murkowski aptly describes the problem facing moderate Republicans.

nationaljournal.com

I wrote my @nationaljournal.com column this week on the disappearing Republican middle, with thanks to Sen. Murkowski for providing case-in-point this afternoon. No one wants to be a dead armadillo in Congress. Trump has made it even worse. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728927/you...

'You’re roadkill in the middle'

Murkowski aptly describes the problem facing moderate Republicans.

nationaljournal.com

Opinion on Iran strikes is more about Trump than 'forever wars' (‪@nataliej.bsky.social‬) www.nationaljournal.com/s/728859/opi...

Opinion on Iran strikes is more about Trump than 'forever wars'

The old specter of Iraq still looms large, but public opinion has fundamentally changed in 22 years.

nationaljournal.com

Public opinion for strikes in Iran will never look like it did before the Iraq war. We don't live in that world anymore. Whose idea it is and how we ask is what matters. There is an interesting age divide among Republicans, though. @nationaljournal.com www.nationaljournal.com/s/728859/opi...

Support-oppose for strikes in Iran: YouGov 35-46 (-11) Ipsos 36-45 (-9) CNN 44-56 (-12) What's the difference? CNN doesn't have an explicit DK option. If you look at nets, it's basically the same result across all three polls - opposition outpaces support by 9-12 pts.

10 years after the golden escalator, public opinion looks quite different. Some of this was in progress, but Trump accelerated it. We're more closely divided, and it changes how we look at polls. Read my @nationaljournal.com column this week to see how. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728814/aft...

After 10 years of Trump, analyzing polls has become a different game

Everything you knew is wrong. Black is white, up is down, and short is long.

nationaljournal.com

Global confidence in Trump: Canada: 22% Mexico: 8% ... I'd imagine Canadians and Mexicans feel roughly the same if you adjust for Canadian politeness.

This week for @nationaljournal.com, I dug into issue polling - if pollsters underestimated Trump, do we underestimate support for his policies? It's possible. But likely not more than a few points. But also, issue polling is hard to do well. Read more: www.nationaljournal.com/s/728743/if-...

If election polls underestimate Trump, are we underestimating support for his policies?

We can’t know for sure, but we have some clues.

nationaljournal.com

My latest column. @nationaljournal.com You have to talk to real humans to do public opinion work. Humans don't always act rationally. You can't model everything. As for that claim AI is better? In 2024 AI polling did... exactly the same as real polling. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728676/ai-...

AI is coming for polling, too

What happens when pollsters no longer interview actual humans? We may find out in 2026.

nationaljournal.com

"Rather than “this is what people think,” it’s more like: “This is what a bot army thinks … based on what a developer (likely not a political person) told them … which they’re not about to reveal to you. It’s the secret sauce!""

My latest column. @nationaljournal.com You have to talk to real humans to do public opinion work. Humans don't always act rationally. You can't model everything. As for that claim AI is better? In 2024 AI polling did... exactly the same as real polling. www.nationaljournal.com/s/728676/ai-...

AI is coming for polling, too

What happens when pollsters no longer interview actual humans? We may find out in 2026.

nationaljournal.com

Tell me again how women are too emotional to run the country?

I talked about this piece on the show today but I cannot emphasize enough how important it is to not assume that other people think like you or make decisions for the same reason you do.

Jane Coaston@janecoaston.bsky.social · last yr.

www.thenation.com/article/poli...