In our new paper for @ejprjournal.bsky.social Tim Vlandas and I offer a mathematical statement and simulations to assess the extent of the 'atomistic' fallacy on #VotingBehaviour, and illustrate the problem empirically by focusing on the example of #FarRight voting- available below Open Access

European Journal of Political Research@ejprjournal.bsky.social · 2mo ago

So you think you know? 💬 🧑‍🔬 @dafnoukos.bsky.social & @ox.ac.uk's Tim Vlandas offer a mathematical statement and simulations to assess the extent of the 'atomistic' fallacy on #VotingBehaviour, and the issues with using European Social Survey data on #FarRight voting

🚨 What happens with voters when politicians use simpler language? New @thejop.bsky.social paper with @rsenninger.bsky.social: simple language changes not just what citizens understand, but who they think politicians are. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Can Simple Language Affect Voters’ Political Knowledge and Their Beliefs About Politicians? | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No 0

How does the level of sophistication in political messages affect citizens? While research has examined how politicians use this element to distinguish themselves, little is known about how it resonat...

journals.uchicago.edu

New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

📣 New publication 📣 Delighted to see my article with the brilliant Teresa Bejan and James Tilley now out in the BJPolS We develop and test the concept of 'partisan intolerance' - and find high levels of intolerance in Britain, associated with affective polarisation 👇

British Journal of Political Science@bjpols.bsky.social · 3mo ago

NEW - Partisan (In)Tolerance and Affective Polarization - https://cup.org/4ud30Lm - James Tilley, @tmbejan.bsky.social & @sarahobolt.bsky.social #OpenAccess

New paper out in Nature Human Behaviour. "Government policy documents across 185 countries largely cite Global North sources" with @seramirezruiz.bsky.social DOI: doi.org/10.1038/s415... Ungated: rdcu.be/fh0Ss

Government policy documents across 185 countries largely cite Global North sources - Nature Human Behaviour

This analysis of 1.2 million policy documents from 185 countries identifies global inequalities in whose knowledge is cited in policymaking. Governments in the Global South rely more on foreign source...

doi.org

📄 New paper with a fantastic MA student @jmschulte.bsky.social: When social democrats move right on migration, do voters actually follow? We study Olaf Scholz's radical shift on migration in Germany (October 2023).

🚨 New paper accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social: we were in the field while Brexit dominated British politics. Do MPs respond differently when constituents disagree with the party line? What we find surprised us: a null! url: osf.io/preprints/os...

Are we accurately interpreting election results? In our new paper, forthcoming in @ejprjournal.bsky.social, Tim Vlandas and I discuss the risks associated with drawing inferences about national level outcomes based on individual-level analyses- i.e. the 'atomistic fallacy'.

📢 New in IMR. We often ask whether #refugees “integrate.” But what happens when the host society becomes hostile? I develop the concept of social marginalization and show that refugees in more #violent German counties report stronger feelings of exclusion and discrimination. doi.org/10.1177/0197...

My first dissertation paper is out in Sexuality Research and Social Policy — open access! 🎉 It's about trans inclusion in sports and what fairness concerns actually do to public support. link.springer.com/article/10.1... Short thread below 👇

🚨 New WP w/ @leonardocarella.bsky.social on OSF doi.org/10.31235/osf... We usually think that social identities precede preferences We show the reverse is also true: people update their social identities to match their immigration preferences Focus: class identity in 🇬🇧 + Christian identity in 🇮🇹

New article and special issue! Just out in Comparative Political Studies: “Countering Illiberalism in Liberal Democracies: Information, Legacies, Temporalities", the intro to a special issue on countering illiberalism in liberal democracies. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... Thread 🧵1/7

Countering Illiberalism in Liberal Democracies: Information, Legacies, Temporalities - Giovanni Capoccia, 2026

The article lays the foundations of a research agenda on the conditions favoring short-term success against emerging illiberal challenges—necessary for democrat...

journals.sagepub.com

Very glad that our first DEMNORM paper found such a great home at @thejop.bsky.social. If you’re interested in the role of social desirability in online surveys, check out the thread and paper below ⬇️

Danbischof@danbischof.bsky.social · 6mo ago

🚨📄 New paper (conditional accepted at @thejop.bsky.social): We test whether social desirability bias actually distorts answers in online surveys. Short version: It mostly doesn’t. w. @timallinger.bsky.social @kristianvsf.bsky.social @morganlcj.bsky.social URL: osf.io/preprints/os...

Great to see "The Way Back After Backsliding: Public Opinion and the Restoration of Democracy" with @robbwiller.bsky.social and @m-b-petersen.bsky.social out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

The Way Back After Backsliding: Public Opinion and the Restoration of Democracy - Kristian Frederiksen, Robb Willer, Michael Bang Petersen, 2026

Abundant prior research has analyzed the mass public’s role in democratic backsliding. Comparatively little research has studied democratic restoration, the reh...

journals.sagepub.com

🚨Happy to finally see this out in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social (with @leonardocarella.bsky.social) ⁉️ Does growing up when immigration is salient make people vote for parties they agree with on immigration *for the rest of their lives*? doi.org/10.1017/S147...

📄 New WP version out: revised text, tightened argument, and new analysis. The Politics of Evidence Selection (w/ @jesperasring.bsky.social) Grateful for the helpful comments and presentation opportunities. Further feedback welcome! 🔗 osf.io/preprints/so...

New paper in @ajpseditor.bsky.social. Is descriptive representation good for substantive representation? Why do voters stay loyal to corrupt and poorly governing ethnic parties? I argue that we ought to focus less on patronage and more on dignity concerns. Defiant pride can come at a price. 1/🧵

Just published in @bjpols.bsky.social: @sergipardos.bsky.social and I show that inter-regional moves in pursuit of employment security reduce individual worries about immigration—a mobility pattern that, in the aggregate, reinforces spatial polarization in anti-immigration sentiment. cup.org/3XiB6yD

British Journal of Political Science@bjpols.bsky.social · 9mo ago

NEW - Regional Labor Markets, Residential Mobility, and Anti-Immigration Sentiment - https://cup.org/3XiB6yD - @denis-cohen.bsky.social & @sergipardos.bsky.social #OpenAccess

How do contemporary challenges of backsliding and war interact? We show that interstate conflict boosts support for undemocratic candidates, especially among Republicans who *do not prefer democratic Rs over undemocratic Rs* during interstate conflict. Out in @bjpols.bsky.social with Lasse Laustsen

British Journal of Political Science@bjpols.bsky.social · 9mo ago

NEW - Interstate Conflict Increases the Appeal of Undemocratic Candidates - https://cup.org/3Lx7bjx "undemocratic candidates are evaluated more positively under conflict compared to peace" - @kristianvsf.bsky.social & Lasse Laustsen #OpenAccess

🚨 New article out! “Right-Wing Terror, Media Backlash, and Voting Preferences for the Far Right” in @bjpols.bsky.social 👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000... We (Alex De Juan, @juvoss.bsky.social & I) examine how right-wing attacks shape support for the far-right in Germany. Short summary thread below 👇

New paper out with @dasalgon.bsky.social: “Far-Right Agenda Setting: How the Far Right influences the Political Mainstream” doi.org/10.1017/S1475676525100066 #openaccess in @ejprjournal.bsky.social🧵

Glad to see this out at @ajpseditor.bsky.social! I show that the immigration-crime issue, when salient, can shift leftist cosmopolitans to the Right. This is due to leftist voters being more conservative on crime than leftist parties. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library

Concern that immigration worsens crime problems is prevalent across Western publics. How does it shape electoral politics? Prior research asserted a growing left–right divide in immigration attitudes...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

🚨 New paper in @thejop.bsky.social Why do politicians often misperceive what citizens' policy positions are? @simonotjes.bsky.social and I study ~10,000 estimates of public opinion by politicians in Denmark & the Netherlands to uncover the sources of these (mis)perceptions Thread 🧵1/10

NEW - How Mainstream Politicians Erode Norms - cup.org/4lfeHvD "we find that statements by mainstream politicians lead to more norm erosion than similar statements by radical-right politicians" - @valentimvicente.bsky.social, Elias Dinas & @dziblatt.bsky.social #OpenAccess

NEW - Media Platforming and the Normalisation of Extreme Right Views - cup.org/4mmVIAL "exposure to uncritical interviews increases agreement with extreme statements and perceptions of broader support in the population" - @dianebolet.bsky.social & @florianfoos.bsky.social #OpenAccess

🚨 working paper (w. @morganlcj.bsky.social @markuswagner.bsky.social): Protesters are not judged equally - even if tactics of groups are similar. We ran an experiment in 🇩🇪 testing how people react to farmers vs. climate activists blocking roads. What we find is disturbing: osf.io/preprints/os...

🚨 My first publication, co-authored with Sylvia Kritzinger & Susanna Bastaroli, is out! In our chapter, we explore how Italians re-elaborate their country’s role in the WWII & the Holocaust. Available online & in print (EN): www.wallstein-verlag.de/978383535866... 🧵 Some key findings: 👇

🛎️New WP with @morganlcj.bsky.social @timallinger.bsky.social and @danbischof.bsky.social Against the surge of conjoints and other hypothetical experiments in relation to democratic backsliding, we study the consequences of using hypotheticals versus real-world scenarios. osf.io/preprints/os...

I am very excited to share a new working paper coauthored with @amaliaab.bsky.social. Using a field experiment, we find that, in the real world, it is more costly to express far-right preferences than other political preferences. osf.io/preprints/os... 1/8

Does Mainstream Populism Work❓ I answer this question in a new paper officially out at @psrm.bsky.social❗ Check out the paper here: doi.org/10.1017/psrm... Key take-aways in the thread below 🧵⬇️: