Worth noting that the IRS has just lost its 3rd commissioner in *this* filing season. That’s unheard of. With tax day around the corner, fair to be worried about this filing season – and what’s to come with respect to our ability to collect taxes and raise revenue

New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: The IRS is entering into an agmt to share data about undocumented immigrants with ICE. Historically, the agency promised data would not be used in this way. We estimate the govt will lose ~$300B in the next decade as a result.

Hard endorse

Gina C. Pieters, PhD@ginapieters.bsky.social · last yr.

I never want to hear an #EconSky debate about dropping macro from the PhD core ever again.

It’s not secret at all! Hmu for your dog bandana needs, and I’ll ship you some for free. My goal is for all dogs to be #DogsInBandanas.

In contrast with much in the world being terrible, let it be known that @maibennett.com is a delight to hang out with irl, and she has a not-so-secret hobby sewing adorable dog bandannas

magdalena bennett@maibennett.com · last yr.

Another happy client of #BobsBandanas cc @lukestein.com

Another happy client of #BobsBandanas cc @lukestein.com

Literally recorded a pod about this to release tomorrow. Investors don't buy shares; they buy interest in an SPV, so the companies can limit the number of investors on their books and remain legally private

The Wall Street Journal@wsj.com · last yr.

Exclusive: EquityZen and Forge Global are lowering the minimum investment in private companies like SpaceX to $5,000, making it easier for individual investors to access high-risk, high-reward opportunities.

I am not saying this out of glee or schadenfreude, or to score political points. I actually think it's an important data point that may not be getting through to people in the US because of all the other horrors they're confronting and trying to resist.

Liam McHugh-Russell@xntl.info · last yr.

I wonder if my American friends understand how much Trump has destroyed the US as a travel destination. People are legitimately afraid that they might be detained for weeks in conditions that violate human rights standards, and have no idea how to avoid that outcome. So they aren't coming.

I wasn't browsing r/dataisbeautiful for this, but interesting pattern, good use of the scatter (and layers) and the overlaid histograms (which generally isn't my favorite). www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeau...

“So, why don’t you start by telling us a bit about your job market paper”

If the government can do this to universities, we don't live in a free society. Five alarm fire.

Jameel Jaffer@jameeljaffer.bsky.social · last yr.

I’m told this is a real letter. It basically says, “We’ll destroy Columbia unless you destroy it first.”

Lunchtime chat w colleague Linghang. In spirit of what our MSF students are learning to code, here’s max drawdown following every 10% S&P 500 correction back to 1980 (n=15 excl. today) - 6 hit a new high before dropping 15% - Another 6 fell >25% - Only 3 turned around at 15–25% (all close to 20%)

Context for today's headlines

genuine respect for williams & connolly, hope law students with multiple options take notice

Greg Lipper@theglipper.bsky.social · last yr.

Williams & Connolly is representing Perkins Coie. And/but "[s]everal other firms declined to represent Perkins Coie, fearing that they, too, could become targets of Mr. Trump’s ire." www.nytimes.com/2025/03/10/u...

Hi, McDonalds here! Everyone at our company is a stupid dumbass moron and think people don't wanna order hotcakes and sausages at 1 P.M when it's been shown with extensive market research and customer reviews they DO want that. We used to offer it but removed it. Sorry, I hate our hashbrowns too.

Let's say you work at a fund of funds that cuts the lowest 10% performers every calendar year. You are beta=1 with decent alpha that puts you reliably in the top 40% of performers at your firm. You also have a reliable prediction: "70% chance market goes down next 3 months."

Senior PowerPoint Engineer@ryxcommar.bsky.social · last yr.

A lot of market participants are structurally long, e.g. their funds' prospectuses require it. There is also more career risk in losing money when markets are going up than losing money when markets go down, which creates additional long bias above just what you expect from E[returns] > 0.

With his permission, I'm sharing Dean Treanor's response to Ed Martin's letter:

🎂 @johnjhorton.bsky.social

There it is: Speaker of the House says Elon has already started running your Social Security through his AI.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · last yr.

Mike Johnson on Elon Musk: "We meet late into the night in his office and we've looked at that. What he's finding with his algorithms crawling through the data of Social Security system is enormous amounts of fraud, waste, and abuse."

This is my Twitter DM inbox

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · last yr.

Mike Johnson on Elon Musk: "We meet late into the night in his office and we've looked at that. What he's finding with his algorithms crawling through the data of Social Security system is enormous amounts of fraud, waste, and abuse."

Has the whole world gone crazy? Am I the only one around here who gives a sh!t about the rules? Mark it zero!

a man with a beard and sunglasses is sitting at a table in a crowded room .

ALT: a man with a beard and sunglasses is sitting at a table in a crowded room .

media.tenor.com

Justin Wolfers@justinwolfers.bsky.social · last yr.

Worth tracking these data closely.

Luke stein visits NKU’s Haile College of Business. @lukestein.com open.substack.com/pub/draalbah...

Luke Stein at Haile Research Lab

Another great Haile Research Lab.

open.substack.com

🚨 NEW WORKING PAPER ALERT 🚨 What if we told you that NFL officiating might not be as neutral as we all assume? That penalties in the postseason aren’t just random whistles, but instead, they tend to favor one team? Read the paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.....

I remember distinctly when I hung out with @lukestein.com in SF for the AGU one year and he told me the good word about Donald Shoup. May we all strive to see a horrible thing so clearly and then move others to act against it. #EconSky #RIP #Shoupist4lyfe

Elle@biknmusicmama.bsky.social · last yr.

It’s almost funny to me how sad I am about this man’s passing. But there are some people in life who just think, and flesh out the obvious that no one sees, and change everything, and this man was one of those. RIP Donald Shoup

Flyout season! (1) research whoever you’ll meet & their work (ask for list, if not finalized ask for tentative schedule); (2) act professional with everyone (students, admin, faculty), everybody talks to everybody; (3) be genuinely excited #econbluesky #econsky - I’m very pumped to meet everyone!

Cool cool cool