Have crossed the red river for a few days to Norman Oklahoma. Giving the following talk today at the University of Oklahoma:
Mike Cowburn
@mikecowburn.bsky.social
Research Fellow, @demolaw.bsky.social, Zeppelin Universität Intra-Party Politics | Candidate Selection | Legislative Politics | PolComm | Primaries Author: Party Transformation in Congressional Primaries https://tinyurl.com/4w6tfvjx www.mikecowburn.com
+++ EIL +++ Die Linke liegt bei der Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl deutlich vor der CDU. Laut Prognose des Meinungsforschungsinstituts Infratest Dimap kommt die Linkspartei auf 24,5 Prozent, die CDU erreicht 20 Prozent.
RESULT: David Morales, a socialist challenger, has ousted the mayor of Providence David Smiley. Add Providence to NYC, DC, and Ann Arbor as socialist wins in mayoral elections.
After a successful #APSA2026 in Boston, I am spending the next month at @utaustin.bsky.social Department of Government, working with Sean Theriault. This week, I will present research from @demolaw.bsky.social tomorrow at 11:00. On Wednesday, I present in the American Politics Speaker Series:
A key issue is whether BSW will get above 5%. If they do, then it’s the worst possible outcome. If they don’t, AfD might not be able to govern, as the others would all vote against them. Either way, though, it’s a disaster for Germany and Europe.
Happening at midday today #APSA2026
Mike Cowburn@mikecowburn.bsky.social · 2mo agoI’m in Boston for #APSA2026. Tomorrow at 12:00 I’ll be presenting the following paper in the excellent-looking panel Elite Polarization and its Institutional Consequences (Marriott, Provincetown). Paper: doi.org/10.33774/aps...
I’m in Boston for #APSA2026. Tomorrow at 12:00 I’ll be presenting the following paper in the excellent-looking panel Elite Polarization and its Institutional Consequences (Marriott, Provincetown). Paper: doi.org/10.33774/aps...
Divided We Legislate: How Party Conflict Shapes Legislative Design
Though research on elite party conflict has long emphasized its effect on legislative productivity and outcomes, little attention has been paid to how these dynamics shape the design of legislation it...
doi.org
📄New preprint with @steffenhurka.bsky.social , @steffiru.bsky.social, and @kaplaner.bsky.social. (@demolaw.bsky.social) Divided We Legislate: How Party Conflict Shapes Legislative Design. doi.org/10.33774/aps...
Divided We Legislate: How Party Conflict Shapes Legislative Design
Though research on elite party conflict has long emphasized its effect on legislative productivity and outcomes, little attention has been paid to how these dynamics shape the design of legislation it...
doi.org
📄New preprint with @steffenhurka.bsky.social , @steffiru.bsky.social, and @kaplaner.bsky.social. (@demolaw.bsky.social) Divided We Legislate: How Party Conflict Shapes Legislative Design. doi.org/10.33774/aps...
Divided We Legislate: How Party Conflict Shapes Legislative Design
Though research on elite party conflict has long emphasized its effect on legislative productivity and outcomes, little attention has been paid to how these dynamics shape the design of legislation it...
doi.org
Ugh: A new Massachusetts poll has a 51-32 lead for a ballot initiative to adopt the top-two “primary” system. This system has been a wreck in California. The majority party frequently risks getting shut out of general elections, so party organizations often pick favorites in primaries to avoid that
All but two Mass. ballot questions likely to pass in November, poll finds
Nine statewide ballot questions will face all Massachusetts voters this November, and a new poll finds that all but two are likely to pass.
wcvb.com
Fully *a fifth* of Wyoming house incumbents (13 / 62) lost their primaries in a big backlash against the hard right caucus. Even more as a share of incumbents running (45). I don't have hard numbers for comparison, but that's got to be pretty far up there for any state chamber, historically.
The Democratic Party is and remains a heterodox coalition of factions, constrained by single-member districts to fight itself bitterly over what it wants to be when it finally grows up, wasting valuable resources. Alternative: it could be multiple parties.
What is truly "shocking" about the polling miss in Michigan is that it is completely average for a primary "The expected error on the margin between two primary candidates in a race for governor or U.S. Senate is a whopping 13.0 points." blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/2026-texas...
Do we really know who's leading the Texas Senate races?
Primary polls have historically been rather unreliable, and a surge in new primary voters means turnout assumptions matter more than usual
blog.fiftyplusone.news
intracranial aneurysm (spooky, scary)@chemotaxis.bsky.social · 3mo agoPolling is like really fucked. Strikes me as a huge problem honestly.
The raw turnout for this race is bananas. It dwarfs previous senate primaries. It’s higher than two of the last three presidential primaries in Michigan, and equal to the third, 2020, with over a dozen candidates on the ballot.
What’s fascinating to me is that I cannot imagine Stevens talking about a Republican opponent like this. I wrote a book about the rise of intra-party factionalism in congressional primaries, and there just aren’t examples of Democrats talking about their co-partisans like this even 10 years ago.
@thejrocktv.bsky.social · 3mo agoShe knows she’s losing so she said let’s just go mask off.
People who think Emily Wilson is being mean have clearly never presented a paper at an academic conference
Our latest voting intention sees cross over. Labour move ahead by 4. Their first lead since March 2025 & highest share since Nov 24 🌹 LAB 28% (+4) ⏩ REF 24% (-2) 🌳 CON 22% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 12% (+1) 🟢 GREEN 8% (-3) 🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 2061| Dates 24-27/7| Change w 22/7
Mbappe fires back at the racist Paraguayan senator who said he grew up with chimpanzees
🚨🎉 New Publication 🚨🎉 I contributed a chapter on "Campaigning and Digital Media" to Developments in American Politics 10. Somewhat surreal to be writing for a textbook that I used in my undergraduate degree. Thanks to the outstanding editorial team: link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...
Developments in American Politics 10
This textbook provides scholarly analysis of recent developments in US Politics and puts contemporary controversies in ideological and historical context
link.springer.com
Factional and ideological politics is alive and well in the Democratic Party overnight. Someone should write a book about how we got here…
Taniel@taniel.bsky.social · 4mo agoAcross NY & MD, I'm counting 12 Democratic incumbents who lost (or, in one case, are trailing) to a challenger to their left. —2 congressmembers (both NY) —4 state senators (2 in NY, 2 in MD) —6 state house members (5 in NY, 1 in MD) A thread to break this down.
Mike Cowburn@mikecowburn.bsky.social · 4mo agoIt's mega-conference week for political scientists in Europe. For those of us not going to Ireland, the DVPW Dreländertagung is also happening here at Zeppelin Universität. I'll be presenting the first empirical paper of @demolaw.bsky.social. It is ☀️☀️☀️, lake swimming definitely an option!
