What is truly "shocking" about the polling miss in Michigan is that it is completely average for a primary "The expected error on the margin between two primary candidates in a race for governor or U.S. Senate is a whopping 13.0 points." blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/2026-texas...

Do we really know who's leading the Texas Senate races?

Primary polls have historically been rather unreliable, and a surge in new primary voters means turnout assumptions matter more than usual

blog.fiftyplusone.news

|horses|@chemotaxis.bsky.social · 9h ago

Polling is like really fucked. Strikes me as a huge problem honestly.

The raw turnout for this race is bananas. It dwarfs previous senate primaries. It’s higher than two of the last three presidential primaries in Michigan, and equal to the third, 2020, with over a dozen candidates on the ballot.

What’s fascinating to me is that I cannot imagine Stevens talking about a Republican opponent like this. I wrote a book about the rise of intra-party factionalism in congressional primaries, and there just aren’t examples of Democrats talking about their co-partisans like this even 10 years ago.

@thejrocktv.bsky.social · 6d ago

She knows she’s losing so she said let’s just go mask off.

People who think Emily Wilson is being mean have clearly never presented a paper at an academic conference

Our latest voting intention sees cross over. Labour move ahead by 4. Their first lead since March 2025 & highest share since Nov 24 🌹 LAB 28% (+4)
⏩ REF 24% (-2)
🌳 CON 22% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (+1)
🟢 GREEN 8% (-3)
🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 2061| Dates 24-27/7| Change w 22/7

It's important to step back for a moment to realize that the duly elected President of the United States is doing a prime time White House address claiming that his country has the most corrupt election system in the world

Mbappe fires back at the racist Paraguayan senator who said he grew up with chimpanzees

The “extreme left”. Somebody save us.

Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani@mayor.nyc.gov · last mo.

Holy shit. 30 year House veteran Diana DeGette defeated in the Dem primary by a challenger younger than her congressional service.

The “extreme left”. Somebody save us.

Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani@mayor.nyc.gov · last mo.

#defendexeteruni c.org/sffZcfYxMw

🚨🎉 New Publication 🚨🎉 I contributed a chapter on "Campaigning and Digital Media" to Developments in American Politics 10. Somewhat surreal to be writing for a textbook that I used in my undergraduate degree. Thanks to the outstanding editorial team: link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...

Developments in American Politics 10

This textbook provides scholarly analysis of recent developments in US Politics and puts contemporary controversies in ideological and historical context

link.springer.com

Factional and ideological politics is alive and well in the Democratic Party overnight. Someone should write a book about how we got here…

Taniel@taniel.bsky.social · last mo.

Across NY & MD, I'm counting 12 Democratic incumbents who lost (or, in one case, are trailing) to a challenger to their left. —2 congressmembers (both NY) —4 state senators (2 in NY, 2 in MD) —6 state house members (5 in NY, 1 in MD) A thread to break this down.

My newest book, "The Elephants in the Room: How Trump Voters Seized the Party from Republican Leaders," hits bookshelves today. If you want to understand the modern GOP, and especially how it saw nominating Trump for a third consecutive time in 2024 as a good idea, this is the book for you. (1/6)

The Elephants in the Room | Cambridge University Press & Assessment

cambridge.org

#3LT2026 @dvpw.bsky.social

Mike Cowburn@mikecowburn.bsky.social · 2mo ago

It's mega-conference week for political scientists in Europe. For those of us not going to Ireland, the DVPW Dreländertagung is also happening here at Zeppelin Universität. I'll be presenting the first empirical paper of @demolaw.bsky.social. It is ☀️☀️☀️, lake swimming definitely an option!

It's mega-conference week for political scientists in Europe. For those of us not going to Ireland, the DVPW Dreländertagung is also happening here at Zeppelin Universität. I'll be presenting the first empirical paper of @demolaw.bsky.social. It is ☀️☀️☀️, lake swimming definitely an option!

📢 PhD position in Political Science Join the ERC-funded #DEMOLAW project, studying the design, creation and survival of democratic laws across the US, UK and EU using computational methods. 📍 Zeppelin University Friedrichshafen 📅 Apply by 12 July 2026 #PhD #PoliticalScience #AcademicJobs

We are hiring! Let me know if you have any questions about working with us.

I'm working on a project on cross-national young gender gap that shows dif patterns. The below w ESS & CSES data show 1. Dif in ideology (id=standardized by country) btwn young men & women, where x is year & y is standard deviations 2. Young men & women ideology relative to other age-gender groups

Seva@seva.bsky.social · 2mo ago

I've now seen four separate pieces accusing John Burn-Murdoch (Financial Times, you've seen his stuff before) of messing with his data on four separate occasions: 1. isitcredible.com/cases 2. unherd.com/newsroom/the... 3. github.com/James-Traina... 4. blog.albertkuo.me/post/2024-01...

🚨 I'm recruiting a PhD student for a new project on Parties' social group ownership, based in the @vd-researchgroup.bsky.social research group at KU Leuven! Deadline for applying is 26 June, estimated starting date is 1 Oct 2026. All info is here 👉 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo... Share widely!

1 doctoraatspositie in kiesgedrag

1 PhD position to research how parties build connections with social groups

kuleuven.be

I fear Labour people risk falling into an ecological fallacy visible from space when reacting to these results. Here is what is very clear in results so far: Labour are losing *seats* to Reform, but... Labour are losing *votes* to the Greens Greens split the vote, Ref comes thru middle

🚨We are so incredibly thrilled to announce that our Multi-Platform Research Special Issue in Political Communication is out now at www.tandfonline.com/toc/upcp20/4...! Special Issue Team: @meredithpruden.bsky.social @yunkangyang.bsky.social @jiyoun-suk.bsky.social Wei Zhong and me!!! 🎉

Political Communication

SI-Multi-Platform Research. Volume 43, Issue 2 of Political Communication

tandfonline.com

In a comparative study, @mikecowburn.bsky.social @ulrikeklinger.bsky.social and Anders Larsson explore how German political actors used Facebook & Twitter across 11 years, finding political actors use more positive rhetoric when campaigning, though negative content was shared more overall

Campaigning in the Age of Platforms: A Longitudinal Analysis of German Parties & Politicians

Social media platforms now play a central role in election campaigns for parties and politicians. Yet comparatively little research has compared how these actors use these platforms during and outs...

tandfonline.com

Our Executive Committee expresses its support for @apsa.bsky.social in light of the proposed drastic cuts to research funding in the USA: 👉 Statement of Support: www.dvpw.de/informatione... 👉 APSA Statement on the Proposed Elimination of the SBE Directorate at the NSF: www.dvpw.de/fileadmin/do...

Usha Vance has the chance to do the funniest thing...

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 4mo ago

JD Vance: "You know what? My wife has the right to skydive, but she doesn't jump out of an airplane because she and I have an agreement she's not gonna do that, because I don't want my wife jumping out of an airplane."

Everyone relax, Kash Patel’s PERSONAL email was hacked. As we all know, conservatives don’t conduct any government business on personal email because they believe it’s wrong

Incredible, sharp, critical reflection on Habermas’ legacy from Nancy Fraser. This is the postmortem I’ve been hoping would come and also sums up so much of my relationship to his work

Nancy Fraser | After Habermas

Jürgen Habermas may be variously described as the moral conscience of postwar Germany, the last great systematic...

lrb.co.uk

Energy independence? Woke.

Roland Smith@rolandmcs.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Morning.