Benjamin Cook

@dustybowl.bsky.social

Climate scientist studying drought, land surface processes, climate extremes. https://www.drbenjamincook.net/

I’ve updated the long-running (starts 1866) CRU Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). This lets us compare the currently developing El Niño with earlier events including 1877-78. 2026 has developed very quickly, similar to the 1997-98 one. Thick line is 3-month running mean, with y-axis reversed.

1866-present timeseries of Climatic Research Unit SOI with some major El Niño events marked.

All the September dynamical ENSO models (including SINTEX) are now in, and they give a 100% chance of a record event this year using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) metric:

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Get in losers-we're talking about how extreme heat seasons are changing around the world! New work led by former (sniffle) excellent postdoc @ccivanovich.bsky.social (advised by me and Sonali McDermid)

Casey Ivanovich@ccivanovich.bsky.social · last mo.

Feel like heatwaves started early this year? Or like they're dragging on later than ever? Our new @aguadvances.bsky.social paper shows that extreme heat is no longer limited to summer and is now creeping into the shoulder seasons -- but unevenly so. (1/6) doi.org/10.1029/2026...

The emissions scenarios underlying the next generation of climate model runs that will be featured in the upcoming IPCC 7th Assessment Report are officially out! I have a big new explainer over at Carbon Brief taking an in-depth look at what they mean and whats changed: www.carbonbrief.org/...

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A striking finding from global drought experiments: Trees show little evidence of physiological acclimation to drought. The inner hydraulic machinery stays the same. The safety margin shrinks. That’s a very different, more vulnerable picture of forest resilience. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Declining hydraulic safety in a drier world | PNAS

Forests worldwide are increasingly exposed to soil drought under climate change, with their fates depending on the ability to maintain essential fu...

pnas.org

Extreme weather is complicated (there are over 150 definitions of drought in the literature!), the Earth system is complex, models are imperfect, and we still have much to learn. But it's remarkable how spot-on most of our predictions have been: drawdown.org/insights/is-...

Is climate change unfolding faster and fiercer than scientists expected?

Climate change is undeniably here, and it’s bad. But is it, as some are claiming, worse than even the scientists expected?

drawdown.org

I am pleased to announce that we are inviting applications for a Lead Laboratory Coordinator at the University of Arizona’s Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research. Review of applications will begin on September 15, 2026. For details and to apply, visit arizona.csod.com/ux/ats/caree...

Lead Laboratory Coordinator, Tree Ring Laboratory

In this role, you will:Lead the oversight of a dendrochronology laboratory in collaboration with the Director, including the mentoring, training,...

arizona.csod.com

2026 El Niño models continue their inexorable march upwards. CanSIPS (which used to be among the cooler ones!) released their August runs today, and now show a Nov/Dec peak of 3.6C (CanESM5) and 4.2C (GEM-NEMO). For reference, the prior record El Niño peaked at 2.8C.

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Fires depend on: ♨️ Weather ⚡ Ignition 🍂 Fuel 🧯 Suppression In North America: ♨️ Climate change = hotter and drier ⚡Ignition = no real change 🍂 Fire deficit = more fuel 🧯Warmer nights = suppression is hard What should we do? 📉 Cut emissions ✅ 🔥 Controlled burns ✅ 🍁 Rake more? ❌ 🇨🇦 Be mean to Canada ❌

The Associated Press@apnews.com · 2mo ago

Experts say the world is experiencing two opposing fire trends because of human impact.