It’s gone full silly season in the Survation press office:

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention RFM 24% (-3) LAB 24% (+5) CON 21% (+1) LD 11% (-1) GRN 11% (=) SNP 3% (=) RB 2% (=) PC 2% (=) OTH 4% (=) F/w 10-14 July 2026. Changes vs 17/06/2026

We are currently looking to hire a project manager with some level of market research experience to start as soon as we find the right candidate. Do get in touch with me if you’d like to work at Survation. Email: careers@survation.com We’ll also have a proper job spec out soonish.

Journalist on Times Radio just now saying the polls in Makerfield are too small to be meaningful and unless someone paid for a 10 (Ten) THOUSAND sample they couldn’t say much. Then launched into some anecdotal comments about what he’s hearing in the doors and confirming that those trends were *real*

I fear Labour people risk falling into an ecological fallacy visible from space when reacting to these results. Here is what is very clear in results so far: Labour are losing *seats* to Reform, but... Labour are losing *votes* to the Greens Greens split the vote, Ref comes thru middle

We are hiring! Survation is looking for a Junior Research and Data Analyst to join our team. More info: www.survation.com/survation-is...

Given how voters usually respond instinctively negatively towards anything Starmer does, these seem like pretty good numbers for him

This is not a robust way to assess the potential of a new party, the “new entry” is given prominence vs the alternatives - so what you see is more of a survey effect than a real vote intention. I imagine the % of people who even know what this party *is* is close to 1%

Much of the pol sci analysis has positioned McSweeney as a veto player against a proper policy reset. If that's true, then Keir Starmer now has his first real opening to reset on policy lines - the question is whether he now uses it - I think we can avoid rushing to judgement.

Anyway, obviously very, very important not to be blasé about an actual armed conflict with the US, but I do genuinely think over this year the US is suddenly going to find out that "being the most powerful country in the world" is still fundamentally reliant on having allies.

RIP Chris Rea youtu.be/FJCg_3DfKvU

Josephine (French Edit)

YouTube video by Chris Rea - Topic

youtu.be

Survation October Newsletter: Long Nights, Illuminating Insights This month, we've covered Welsh politics, the Labour deputy leadership election, and much more. Read in full: shorturl.at/D7Bav Subscribe to our mailing list here: eepurl.com/mOK8P 🧵 1/6

Note of caution on More in Common’s MRP showing a chunky Reform overall majority. It is based on a *10pt* REF lead over LAB. The pollster’s regular VI is just a 3 pt lead. MRP is not very good at getting national shares correct and needs assistance - which does not appear to have happened here.

Ballotbox.scot with their usual excellent coverage of our Scotland polling this week: ballotbox.scot/survation-se...

Ballot Box Scotland

Democracy in Detail

ballotbox.scot

Some thoughts on our new poll of Labour members on behalf of @labourlist.bsky.social: Disappointed By Labour's Direction, Labour Members Turn To Lucy Powell in the Deputy Leader Race: mailchi.mp/survation/ne...

Labour's Next Deputy Leader? In terms of an ideological battle, there’s likely little perceived difference between Lucy Powell and Bridget Phillipson. In our councillor perceptions study of MPs on economic issues (mpsleftright.co.uk), both scored near-identical results.

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention RFM 30 (+3) LAB 24 (-) CON 19 (-1) LD 11 (-2) GRN 8 (-) OTH 6 (-2) F/w 28th August- 2nd September 2025. Changes vs 2nd June. 🧵1/5

Could Labour’s hope for the future be gaining tactical votes from Green & LibDem supporters? 👀 Polling guru @damiansurvation.bsky.social breaks down this strategic dilemma in the latest episode of The Political Marketing Podcast. politicaladvertising.co.uk/2025/07/19/p...

Polling & Political Strategy: An Inside Look At What Parties Really Know About Voters

In the most recent episode of The Political Marketing Podcast I had the privilege of sitting down with Damian Lyons Lowe, CEO of Survation, one of the UK’s most influential market research firms.&n…

politicaladvertising.co.uk

Great post about the limitations of ONS data and why being governed by statistical noise is the current state of affairs!

Martin Robbins@mjrobbins.com · last yr.

My latest, on how the government is in a brilliant position to make big decisions, if only it can stop thinking small.

Signs you are getting old #342. The homemade Father’s Day cards reach political satire level:

Where are Reform’s new voters coming from in Scotland? More than 1 in 5 Labour voters from the 2024 general election are now intending on switching to Reform, with 1 in 4 Tory voters intending on making the switch also. New analysis from Survation's Fred Power: www.survation.com/new-survatio...

Ahead of the locals, I shared some thoughts with @alexrogerssky in that Reform could pose a real threat to Labour in "post-industrial" areas potentially receptive to a message of "protectionism, industrial revival, and national self-sufficiency". news.sky.com/story/how-ni...

How Nigel Farage is flirting with Labour's most loyal voters - and the battle to stop him

Nigel Farage's courting of union members has alarmed the movement's leaders - and now they are plotting how to stop the Reform UK leader in his tracks.

news.sky.com

In by-elections, losing parties often find some solace in blaming low turnout - not so in Runcorn & Helsby. While turnout yesterday was lower than at the 2024 general election in that seat - it was still higher than in 19 other constituencies at GE 2024:

Consensus seat forecast for net LE seat gains (Baxter, Hayward, Freedman, Fisher, Walker, Booth). I don't know yet if we will be told this would be a "very bad night for Labour" 😉

NEW: How did Labour members react to the Spring Statement? Our latest poll with @labourlist.bsky.social shows: - Sharp drops in cabinet favourability - Disapproval of welfare reforms - Pessimism ahead of May’s elections @vlazarov.bsky.social breaks down the findings 🧵 Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7f0

Labour Members React to Spring Statement with Pessimism on Policies and Electoral Prospects | Survation

Survation’s second Labour members’ poll in partnership with LabourList conducted immediately following Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement shows sharp declines in leadership favourability, stro...

survation.com

NEW: We’re excited to unveil a new partnership with @survation.bsky.social – polling Labour members among our readership. We think it’s important to highlight the full range and nuances of members’ views. Send us ideas for Qs at mail@labourlist.org. Some findings…🧵 labourlist.org/2025/03/cabi...

Cabinet league tables: LabourList-Survation poll on members’ favourites - LabourList

Ed Miliband is the most liked member of the Labour Cabinet among LabourList readers, a new poll can reveal.

labourlist.org

@lordashcroft.bsky.social's polling in Runcorn & Helsby shows Labour have a turnout problem they will need to fix if there's any chance of squeaking a victory. Just 55% of LAB 2024 GE voters say they will definitely vote, vs 78% of REF voters and 70% of CON: lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/03/runc...

Maybe there is such a thing as bad publicity? Tesla’s crash back towards reality, in several charts: www.ft.com/content/ca1c...

Tesla’s crash back towards reality, in several charts

Rapid unscheduled share-price disassembly

ft.com

Pleased to see @politico.com’s article today “Top Trump allies hold secret talks with Zelenskyy’s Ukrainian opponents” featured our new Ukraine polling - which serves as a useful reality check on Zelenskyy’s true popularity: www.politico.eu/article/dona...

Top Trump allies hold secret talks with Zelenskyy’s Ukrainian opponents

As Washington ramps up its pressure on Zelenskyy to step aside, his rivals are talking to Trump’s team.

politico.eu

Trump slapping tariffs on Canada like they’re a global supervillain while giving Russia a free pass. Exactly what did Trudeau do to deserve this?