A fair bit of "house effect" going on. Labour leads everywhere, by anything from 3 to 8 pts. 2nd place depends on whose poll you read: Opinium, Deltapoll & ourselves have Reform. Ipsos, YouGov, MiC and FON have the Tories.

Today, the UK government has approved extraction from the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea. Previous polling on behalf of the Forum for Research on Energy showed that 6 in 10 Scots supported the approval prior to its happening: www.survation.com/six-in-ten-s...

Six in ten Scots backed Jackdaw before the government approved it | Survation

Six in ten Scots backed Jackdaw before the government approved it On the 21st of October the UK Government approved gas production at the Jackdaw...

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OUT NOW: Our Holborn & St. Pancras by-election reaction is in all your podcast feeds! @survation.bsky.social's @damiansurvation.bsky.social and @fayebrownjourno.bsky.social join our Director Neal Lawson and Dep. Director Lena Swedlow to break down what the result means for progressive politics.

Tonight at 6pm we have a LIVE recording of our podcast focusing on the fallout of the Holborn & St. Pancras by-election! Our Director Neal and Deputy Director Lena are joined by @damiansurvation.bsky.social and @fayebrownjourno.bsky.social! Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

Inside me are two wolves. The first wolf goes ‘go to bed early before the by-election in Holborn & St Pancras, then do an early start’. The second wolf… got through a 7:20am LBC News slot and is excited to be on "It’s Bloody Complicated: After H&StP at 6pm: www.compassonline.org.uk/podcast/list...

Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social · 4w ago

Inside me are two wolves. The first wolf goes 'but I liked being represented by national figures in Stoke Newington and Kings Cross'. The second wolf goes 'thank god I will never have to hear unevidenced and mad opinions about my local MP again'.

Jim Waterson in today’s @londoncentric.media mailer on the London mayoral strategy ahead for James Cleverly - reverse the *vile dystopia* plan;

Is Kemi more popular than her party, and what does this mean for the Conservatives? The Conservatives are on 19% in Survation's latest Westminster voting intention poll, conducted for Mandate Research on the 29th of September In all of our polls since June 2025, they have been between 18% and 21%.

NEW: Where will the public land on Andy Burnham’s Triple Lock changes and National Care Service plans? Initial reactions to the PM’s speech in a poll of 1,548 adults in the UK interviewed in the hours after the speech on 29 September on behalf of Mandate Research 🧵1/9

If you are headed to the Labour Party Conference and would like to catch up, or just want to be briefed on our pre conference research, go here for details: eepurl.com/F2ohRItFCX

Who’s in Second Place? Estimating Tactical Voting in an Era of Extreme Volatility. Survation analyst @pjstock.bsky.social rolls through the changed electoral reality and what that means for looking past the “raw” MRP numbers: www.survation.com/whos-in-seco...

Who's in Second Place? Estimating Tactical Voting in an Era of Extreme Volatility: | Survation

In 2024, most top two contests were Labour vs Conservatives – now it’s Labour vs Reform In 2024, almost half of all seats were Labour–Conservative...

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Aside from the 7pm clash with @Channel4News, for me the special value of @BBCNewsnight is specifically the time slot - late at the end of the day - so there's time to fold in late breaking news and perspectives - a 7pm Friday slot adds nothing to a news junkie...

Russty Russ@russtyruss.bsky.social · 2mo ago

From next Friday onwards, Newsnight will transfer to the 7pm slot on BBC Two. Newsnight will remain at 10.30pm Monday to Thursday. TFI Newsnight perhaps? I can't wait for the Its Your Letters slot!

Despite excitable coverage of tonight’s AfD result in Saxony-Anhalt, the outcome was broadly in line with polling across the east. This is the AfD’s strongest region, not a proxy for Germany - nationally AfD poll in the mid-20s - tonight tells us little that’s new about the west or Germany broadly.

It’s gone full silly season in the Survation press office:

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention RFM 24% (-3) LAB 24% (+5) CON 21% (+1) LD 11% (-1) GRN 11% (=) SNP 3% (=) RB 2% (=) PC 2% (=) OTH 4% (=) F/w 10-14 July 2026. Changes vs 17/06/2026

We are currently looking to hire a project manager with some level of market research experience to start as soon as we find the right candidate. Do get in touch with me if you’d like to work at Survation. Email: careers@survation.com We’ll also have a proper job spec out soonish.

Journalist on Times Radio just now saying the polls in Makerfield are too small to be meaningful and unless someone paid for a 10 (Ten) THOUSAND sample they couldn’t say much. Then launched into some anecdotal comments about what he’s hearing in the doors and confirming that those trends were *real*

I fear Labour people risk falling into an ecological fallacy visible from space when reacting to these results. Here is what is very clear in results so far: Labour are losing *seats* to Reform, but... Labour are losing *votes* to the Greens Greens split the vote, Ref comes thru middle

We are hiring! Survation is looking for a Junior Research and Data Analyst to join our team. More info: www.survation.com/survation-is...

Given how voters usually respond instinctively negatively towards anything Starmer does, these seem like pretty good numbers for him

This is not a robust way to assess the potential of a new party, the “new entry” is given prominence vs the alternatives - so what you see is more of a survey effect than a real vote intention. I imagine the % of people who even know what this party *is* is close to 1%

Much of the pol sci analysis has positioned McSweeney as a veto player against a proper policy reset. If that's true, then Keir Starmer now has his first real opening to reset on policy lines - the question is whether he now uses it - I think we can avoid rushing to judgement.

Anyway, obviously very, very important not to be blasé about an actual armed conflict with the US, but I do genuinely think over this year the US is suddenly going to find out that "being the most powerful country in the world" is still fundamentally reliant on having allies.

RIP Chris Rea youtu.be/FJCg_3DfKvU

Josephine (French Edit)

YouTube video by Chris Rea - Topic

youtu.be

Survation October Newsletter: Long Nights, Illuminating Insights This month, we've covered Welsh politics, the Labour deputy leadership election, and much more. Read in full: shorturl.at/D7Bav Subscribe to our mailing list here: eepurl.com/mOK8P 🧵 1/6

Note of caution on More in Common’s MRP showing a chunky Reform overall majority. It is based on a *10pt* REF lead over LAB. The pollster’s regular VI is just a 3 pt lead. MRP is not very good at getting national shares correct and needs assistance - which does not appear to have happened here.

Ballotbox.scot with their usual excellent coverage of our Scotland polling this week: ballotbox.scot/survation-se...

Ballot Box Scotland

Democracy in Detail

ballotbox.scot

Some thoughts on our new poll of Labour members on behalf of @labourlist.bsky.social: Disappointed By Labour's Direction, Labour Members Turn To Lucy Powell in the Deputy Leader Race: mailchi.mp/survation/ne...

Labour's Next Deputy Leader? In terms of an ideological battle, there’s likely little perceived difference between Lucy Powell and Bridget Phillipson. In our councillor perceptions study of MPs on economic issues (mpsleftright.co.uk), both scored near-identical results.

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention RFM 30 (+3) LAB 24 (-) CON 19 (-1) LD 11 (-2) GRN 8 (-) OTH 6 (-2) F/w 28th August- 2nd September 2025. Changes vs 2nd June. 🧵1/5

Could Labour’s hope for the future be gaining tactical votes from Green & LibDem supporters? 👀 Polling guru @damiansurvation.bsky.social breaks down this strategic dilemma in the latest episode of The Political Marketing Podcast. politicaladvertising.co.uk/2025/07/19/p...

Polling & Political Strategy: An Inside Look At What Parties Really Know About Voters

In the most recent episode of The Political Marketing Podcast I had the privilege of sitting down with Damian Lyons Lowe, CEO of Survation, one of the UK’s most influential market research firms.&n…

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