Methane is a less discussed greenhouse gas but one that is responsible for 30% of current warming. It makes up for its low concentration with a far higher greenhouse strength, and we’ve increased it by over 160%. drtomharris.substack.com/p/methane-co... #climatechange #methane #permafrost #oil

Methane - CO₂’s troublesome little brother that packs a punch.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas but is short lived. This makes it a strong warming driver but also a fast acting brake if emissions are cut. A natural feedback lurks in the permafrost though.

drtomharris.substack.com

Warming is now accelerating to the point where 2ºC will be passed next decade and 3ºC is looking difficult to avoid. There are three levers that we still have available to avoid this outcome: decarbonisation, carbon removal and solar geoengineering. drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-3-leve...

The 3 levers that could stabilise the climate

Decarbonisation, Carbon Dioxide Removal and Solar Geoengineering all have the potential to reduce the Earth’s Energy Imbalance. Will we need all three to stabilise the climate?

drtomharris.substack.com

This is a very well researched and thoughtful analysis of the human cost of continued warming, examining the claim that 3 billion could die if/when 3ºC of warming is reached later this century. Well worth reading👇 safeclimate.org.au/article/coul... #climatechange #foodsecurity #migration #mortality

I gave a climate change talk to the Cybernetics Society this week. The recording is now available on YouTube www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZCk... #climatechange #energyimbalance #geoengineering #decarbonisation #netzero

Have we entered a New Normal? Tom Harris. Cybernetics Live 22 July 2026.

YouTube video by Cybernetics Society

youtube.com

There are some ideas that are bad, but some are completely crazy 🤯 Putting mirrors into space to reflect MORE sunlight down to Earth, when the energy imbalance is so high already counts as crazy. #geoengineering #agriculture #space #spacemirrors #climatechange www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Can giant space mirrors boost green energy on Earth? A start-up aims to find out

Astronomers are deeply worried that a planned array of 50,000 mirror-bearing satellites in orbit will severely compromise telescopes.

nature.com

JOB OFFER: Senior Scientist in integrated assessment modelling & climate change mitigation pathway analysis 📍 Potsdam, Germany 📅 Starting 1 November 2026 ⏳ Fixed term: 2 years, 5 months 🗓 Apply by 13 August 2026 👉 more info: potsdam.pi-asp.de/bewerber-web...

This is a very worthwhile read 👇

Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf@rahmstorf.bsky.social · 2w ago

Responsible politicians need to act now, despite uncertainties, as they do for other security risks. For we won’t have scientific certainty until it’s too late. #AMOC www.bbc.com/news/article...

Slowing emissions reductions means more financially crushing #climate change - was nothing learned from the pandemic? It’s the area under the curve that matters, in this case greenhouse gas emissions over time. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

EU proposes slowing down cuts to carbon emissions for businesses

Under the proposals, the EU plans to relax its emissions trading system to give companies more time to reduce their carbon output.

bbc.co.uk

As we in Europe recover from another heatwave, others brace for the next one and other extreme weather events pepper the globe, weather attribution science updates us on the contribution Climate Change is making to all these events - but how does it work? drtomharris.substack.com/p/how-much-i...

How much is Climate Change to blame for Extreme Weather?

The science of Extreme Weather Attribution is used to assign a climate change contribution to the seasonal climate as well as individual weather events, but how does it work?

drtomharris.substack.com

A new study may have helped to explain how the ocean storage of carbon changes with sea level over the paleoclimate. When sea levels are high, ocean carbon sink drops leading to high atmospheric CO₂ which keeps temperatures and therefore sea levels high. #carbonsink #oceans #paleoclimate #CO2

⚠️🔥⚠️ An 'exceptional' red warning for wildfire has been issued for much of England and Wales. A post on LinkedIn by David Shukman explains the dangers: www.linkedin.com/posts/david-...

#londonclimateresiliencereview | David Shukman | 56 comments

An 'exceptional' red warning for wildfire has been issued for much of England and Wales. This is only the second time we've had this level of alert - so it's serious. It's the result of the endles...

linkedin.com

🚨 The data is finally in for the first quarter of the year, and it's not looking good... Global ocean heat content just set another new record high! Data (anomalies) & methods from www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/globa...

Sea Level Rise is baked in for centuries with only the rate uncertain. Driven by thermal expansion, melting ice sheets and land height changes, and exacerbated by ever more extreme storm surges, protection and adaptation is becoming critical. drtomharris.substack.com/p/coastal-pr... #sealevelrise

Coastal Protection: How much Sea Level Rise is it sensible to plan for?

Sea level rise may hit more slowly than heatwaves, but it is relentless and unstoppable. Building defences is costly and takes time, so what level of protection should Governments plan for?

drtomharris.substack.com

Another study by Bischof et al. 2023 found in dedicated model simulations "that cold subpolar North Atlantic sea surface temperatures significantly increase heat wave duration and magnitude downstream over the European continent." ⬇️ agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

The Role of the North Atlantic for Heat Wave Characteristics in Europe, an ECHAM6 Study

Model study designed to investigate the ocean impact on European heat waves by prescribing observed and realistic ocean surface conditions Cold subpolar North Atlantic sea surface temperatures si...

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf@rahmstorf.bsky.social · last mo.

Much of Europe is sweating in an exceptional heat wave. Heat in Europe has increased 4 times more than in other mid-latitude areas, which has been linked to the Atlantic #coldblob in several studies. #AMOC Slide from a talk I'm about the present at London Climate Action Week #LCAW2026. 1/

The Barents Sea, a shallow area on the edge of the Arctic Ocean played an important role in the evolution of the ice age but could also provide a useful backstop to a weakening AMOC. #climatechange #Arctic #AMOC #paleoclimate #oceancirculation #iceage drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-barent...

The Barents Sea - Architect of the Ice Age and potential AMOC Backstop

Two recent papers show the importance of the Barents Seaway in sustaining the AMOC today as well as helping to shape the evolution of the ice age through the mid-Pleistocene Transition.

drtomharris.substack.com

This is a very interesting analysis of deforestation from Hannah Ritchie. Well worth a read 👇 hannahritchie.substack.com/p/deforestat... #deforestation #food #imports

How much deforestation is your country importing through trade?

An interactive tool to explore deforestation flows across the world.

hannahritchie.substack.com

For context the 2023 peak was 2.03ºC and the 2016 strong event was 2.72ºC peak. Model mean of 4ºC forecast is just insane 🤯 This is going to get ugly

Prof. Eliot Jacobson@climatecasino.net · last mo.

Here's the daily Nino 3.4 anomaly forecast with respect to the 1991-2020 baseline for June 25th, 2026, with data from CFSv2, and with the y-axis extended to 5.0°C. Data source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFS...

Every heatwave is a glimpse of a possible future. This is a good time to decide which future we want.

Link a short overview on currents We trigger a non linear reaction of upper currents in the oceans and break downs of deeper currents Not just the AMOC it's way worse Stratification is the main driver Internal tides 5x times speed up Great gyres can abruptly change #climate #earth

How Do Ocean Currents Affect Climate?

Why is Western Europe so mild for its latitude? Discover how ocean currents move heat across the globe and shape the climates we live in.

worldatlas.com

Within a system as complex as the Earth’s climate, small events in one place can trigger and be triggered by seemingly unconnected events thousands of miles away. We are living in a Domino Maze and we keep nudging the start tile. drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-planet... #climatechange #cascade

The Planetary Domino Effect - Global Climate Teleconnections & Feedback Cascades

How breaking climate buffers, teleconnections, and feedbacks are synchronising into a self-amplifying domino effect that threatens to permanently push global temperatures past 1.5°C

drtomharris.substack.com

Much of Europe is sweating in an exceptional heat wave. Heat in Europe has increased 4 times more than in other mid-latitude areas, which has been linked to the Atlantic #coldblob in several studies. #AMOC Slide from a talk I'm about the present at London Climate Action Week #LCAW2026. 1/

Dangerous and potentially historic extreme heat is forecast to impact parts of western Europe this week. We already know that these temperatures are made at least 5x more likely due to human-caused climate change. Stay safe! Explore the attribution data at csi.climatecentral.org/climate-shif...

Today is #ShowYourStripes Day! It is a global moment to share our concern about how the climate is changing. This is my little contribution - I hope you enjoy it 🕺, if so please like ❤️ share 🔁 and discuss 💬 drtomharris.substack.com/p/show-your-... #globalwarming #climatechange #climateimpacts

Show Your Stripes Day 2026 - 🔊Turn up the volume🎶

The Warming Stripes were devised by Prof.

drtomharris.substack.com

Mongolia is warming so fast that permafrost coverage has fallen from ~63% of the country in the 1970s to just 26–29% today. The consequences are already visible in this picture essay: expanding thermokarst ponds, collapsing pingos, waterlogged pastures… www.theguardian.com/artanddesign...

The changing face of Mongolia as, beneath the grass, permafrost thaws

The warming caused by climate breakdown in the landlocked east Asian country is transforming its fragile ecosystem

theguardian.com

My latest on Substack: open.substack.com/pub/climatec...

Godzilla El Nino Update for June 18, 2026

All the sea-surface temperature news that's fit to print, and some that isn't.

open.substack.com

The upcoming ‘Super’ El Niño is, quite rightly, getting a lot of attention as the impacts are likely to be severe over the coming 12 months. There is more to this story though, as I discuss in this week’s article. drtomharris.substack.com/p/not-just-a... #elnino #ENSO #climatechange #tippingpoint

Not Just Another “Super” El Niño Article

The world is bracing, quite rightly, for a newly confirmed and likely very strong El Niño event, but the real risks lay in what follows.

drtomharris.substack.com

Take the difference in temperature for each day, January 1, 1950 through June 13, 2026, from the exact same day 10 years earlier, to get a "daily decadal temperature difference." Graph those points with a linear trendline. The current rate of warming is about 0.32°C per decade.

Are we willing to invest just five cents per person per year to maintain one of the world’s most important climate monitoring systems? That provides crucial information about a potentially existential risk for Europe?

Femke de Jong@fmkdejong.bsky.social · 2mo ago

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre... We are raising the alarm because continuing observations of one of our most important components in the climate system are becoming unsustainable.

In case you were wondering why the upcoming Ell Nino is being described as a "Goliath", take a look at these projections with the 2023 and 2026 peaks added for scale... #elnino #ENSO

theconversation.com/a-5-3-millio...

A 5.3 million-year-old whale graveyard has been found on the floor of the Indian Ocean

Chinese scientists have discovered hundreds of ancient whale carcasses deep in the Diamantina Zone off the coast of Western Australia.

theconversation.com