Folks, a *very* exciting announcement: The Downballot has just published updated 2024 presidential results by congressional district for every state with a new map this year! That's 10 states in all, covering a full one-third of the House. Please dive in!

The Downballot releases presidential results for every new House district, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics

10 state have new maps for the midterms. We have data for all of them.

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Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford, the Democratic frontrunner to take on Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo this fall, is this week's guest on The Downballot Podcast. Check out @dwbeard.bsky.social and @joesudbay.bsky.social's interview with Ford, plus a rundown of a truly volatile week in primaries.

Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford previews his race for governor

Listen now | Meanwhile, Trump keeps knocking off Republican incumbents

the-downballot.com

. @hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social, at CAP event, on how House Democrats see this moment: “Either MAGA extremists are going to break the country, or we’re going to break them. And our goal is to break them. We will defeat them. We have to beat them electorally and then we have to break their spirit.”

We're about to have a massive election night with primaries from coast-to-coast and *general* elections for the Georgia Supreme Court. We're out with our hot-off-the-presses preview of the many big races to watch.

Liberals could make major inroads into Georgia's Supreme Court on Tuesday

Plus, we preview nearly 30 primaries in five states ahead of a very busy primary night

the-downballot.com

I think voters often deep down know what they want and it's very hard to get them off of it. In 2024, swing voters wanted Trump b/c they wanted 2019 back. No ad or argument was going to change that. So when Trump said "I won't do Project 2025" they believed him b/c they wanted it to be true.

Dave Weigel@daveweigel.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Indeed one of the most interesting bits of the @robflaherty.bsky.social essay was focus groups not believing the Project 2025 hit bc Trump said he was against it. I have also heard that some groups pulled Project 2025-themed ads for fear of litigation - Trump said it's not him, we'll sue

@dwbeard.bsky.social made an excellent point about the MO map ruling on this week's podcast: If the GOP waits 8 months to suspend the map pending signature review, then uses the map anyway "because it's too late," they can just pass a new gerrymander next year even if the veto referendum succeeds.

Good discussion around the state of Labour for those curious about what's gone wrong in the U.K. over the past two years www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FAv...

HOW DID LABOUR GET IT WRONG?: LabourList 2026 Election Analysis

YouTube video by LabourList

youtube.com

The DOJ's demand for confidential voter data from the states is an alarming effort to exert federal control over elections. On The Downballot podcast this week, Maryam Jazini explains why it's so dangerous—and how @commoncause.org and its allies are fighting back. Listen here!

Good riddance to Eric Swalwell

Listen now | And how Common Cause is fighting the DOJ's voter data grab

the-downballot.com

The 2nd half of this week’s @the-downballot.com podcast features an important discussion on a topic that is not given enough coverage: How election laws impact the Native American community. I learned a lot in this conversation with @toreydolan.bsky.social. www.the-downballot.com/p/the-big-ta...

The big takeaways from the Illinois primaries

Listen now | And Torey Dolan explains the unique problems election law poses for Native voters

the-downballot.com

As called, once again, by Jimmy Roselli and Griffin Wright on High Point student radio:

Yesterday, I joined David Nir and David Beard of @the-downballot.com podcast to discuss the important of county races and how @boostingleaders.bsky.social will help elect great new leaders nationwide. Listen to the podcast here:

The Downballot@the-downballot.com · 5mo ago

*County* offices are very powerful but get almost no attention. On The Downballot podcast this week, we aim to remedy that by talking to Erie County Executive @markpoloncarz.bsky.social, whose new group, @boostingleaders.bsky.social, is helping elect Dems to these posts nationwide. Listen here! →

The Republican party is in a state of constant self-cannibalization, regularly taking down incumbents purely for the sin of being an elected official, only for the cycle to begin anew

In NC's HD-106 Dem primary the progressive challenger Rodney Sadler is dominating the incumbent ConservaDem Carla Cunningham 75%-18% in the early vote

It is by far the best place to talk about elections online

The Downballot@the-downballot.com · 6mo ago

In case you didn't know, The Downballot has a rockin' Discord server that's a true haven for election nerds. If you're a paid subscriber, just click below! And if you're not a paid subscriber, it's tme to become one!

Bacon (retiring) and Massie (weirdo) make sense but Kiley has always been a company man; he’s just pissed Trump’s redistricting wars led to his district getting torched lol

Jamie Dupree@jamiedupree.bsky.social · 6mo ago

House refuses to approve a new tariff Gag Rule, voting against a plan to prevent votes on Trump tariffs through the end of July. 3 GOP 'No' votes were Kiley CA, Bacon NE, and Massie KY. Tariff votes expected now on Wednesday from Democrats.

the thing about AOC 2028 that reminds me of Trump 2016 is that it seems obvious *somebody* will take her down but as soon as you get to individual names you have your doubts anyone actually can

Michael Love@elkmovie.bsky.social · 6mo ago

I'm still long on AOC, I think she'd consolidate the progressive lane if she ran while half a dozen centrist assholes duke it out to see which one can most convincingly refuse to imagine a better world

This week’s @the-downballot.com podcast is every election nerd’s dream: Full coverage of the Texas Senate special election earthquake, filing deadlines, Senate fundraising, House fundraising, and a special look at one of my 2026 House race obsessions: #NC11 www.the-downballot.com/p/why-the-go...

Why the GOP is right to freak out after Texas

Listen now | And breaking down fourth-quarter fundraising reports

the-downballot.com

Direct hit, losing altitude, everyone get your parachutes

Rachel Merrill Artist for Gil Thorp and Death To Pachuco!@ohhhaeee.bsky.social · 6mo ago

NGL this description of Bsky in Vulture cracked me up

What would happen if Trump sends his goons to terrorize a city during an election? The brave residents of the Twin Cities just showed us—in astonishing fashion. On this The Downballot podcast this week, we discuss the astonishing special election in St. Paul—and why Trump should fear a backlash.

The Twin Cities' fierce response to ICE—at the ballot box

Listen now | And DDHQ's Geoffrey Skelley joins us to nerd out and talk shop

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Noting that Trump clearly thinks it's fine to say really nasty things about someone just after they've died - might revisit this post one day

Philip Bump@pbump.com · 8mo ago

utterly incapable of grace

Trump is pretty much already a lame duck at this point

The GOP is deeply unsettled by the big Dem showing in #TN07. On The Downballot podcast this week, @davidnir.com & @dwbeard.bsky.social explain why they're right to be. We also geek out w/Lou Jacobson about the Almanac of American Politics, a seminal resource for all political nerds. Listen here!

GOP in disarray after Tennessee special

Listen now | And Lou Jacobson explains the Almanac of American Politics

the-downballot.com

Given what we’ve seen, Behn should win the early vote in total, but we know the E-Day vote will shift red so the question is by how much and is there any differential turnout between rural and non-rural counties

While we were recording the show, @dwbeard.bsky.social & I debated whether to address the TX dissent, which had just dropped. We decided we couldn't, because it would have simply taken way too long to dissect all the lunacy. But this great piece from @mjsdc.bsky.social gives you the full flavor -->

This Dissent From a Reagan Judge Is One of the Most Unhinged Judicial Opinions in U.S. History

He invokes the liberal Jewish philanthropist George Soros no fewer than 17 times.

slate.com

The Downballot@the-downballot.com · 9mo ago

On today's episode of The Downballot podcast, we explore every detail of the astounding TX redistricting ruling that blocked the GOP's new gerrymander. We also talk to @pbrown83.bsky.social about why Dems need a "voter-centric" approach to communication, and what that looks like. Listen here -->

People coming to bluesky because twitter is broke

We've got a jam-packed podcast this week! First up is @jlray.bsky.social to discuss a fascinating polling experiment we conducted w/YouGov Blue. Then we talk to @cgaldieri.bsky.social about all things New Hampshire, including the already nasty GOP Senate primary. Listen here!

The inside scoop on The Downballot's new polling

Listen now | And a deep dive into New Hampshire politics with Chris Galdieri

the-downballot.com

Warner is obviously a no because he's up for re-election next year - I'd be surprised if any 2026ers running again vote for it

Every shutdown fight ends the same way (moderates concede with little to show to outrage from the base) b/c their very existence is an error in how the fed government runs. Dems are the opposition, they should not be forced to vote for legislation for the GOP-led government to function.

I loved this observation/conversation between the Davids on this week’s @the-downballot.com podcast. Whereas so many elite institutions have caved to Trump in the face of his threats this year, it is the PEOPLE who have consistently stood up to him, whether as voters, protesters, or even jurors.