My latest for ISPI explores how LAAF-RSF cooperation is transforming logistics & border corridors' governance into geopolitical currency in the competition between Saudi Arabia & the UAE - playing out across the Horn, Sudan, Libya & Chad.

Corridor Governance: How LAAF-RSF Cooperation Sharpens Gulf Competition in Libya and Sudan | ISPI

Cross-border supply corridors linking Libya and Sudan have become the backbone of the RSF’s war endurance.

ispionline.it

Rare for me to publish reflection pieces like this - but this one may resonate with those who’ve followed the arc of Seif al-Islam Gaddafi’s journey, and are grappling with the tangle of his legacy in Libya’s politics - & the tragedy of his killing. emadbadi.com/seif-al-isla...

Seif al-Islam Gaddafi - Between Martyrdom and Myth - Emadeddin Badi

Seif al-Islam Gaddafi’s killing has already been packaged as a national turning point: the removal of a “third option” for Libya, and to some, the end of a supposed last bridge out of Libya’s stagnati...

emadbadi.com

A thread unpacking recent #RSF weapons-supply dynamics in Sudan, & how a set of external shocks is now reshaping how the #UAE moves materiel to Hemedti's forces - from the Turko-Egyptian rapprochement and the Red Sea fallout to the evolving Saudi-Emirati rivalry. threadreaderapp.com/thread/20108...

#Libya #Chad #Sudan @emadbadi.bsky.social 'In weakly governed borderlands, the market for #mercenary labour and the market for #weapons interact to entrench a regionalized economy of insecurity.. networks in which weapons, fighters, fuel and [ICT] move together' globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...

Collateral circuits: The impact of the Sudan's war on arms markets and mercenary networks in Chad and Libya

The war in Sudan has transformed far more than its own frontlines. It has reshaped the security economies of its neighbours, activating new supply nodes and embedding weapons and combatants into cross...

globalinitiative.net

Highly recommend this excellent new report by @emadbadi.bsky.social on the UAE's supply lines to the RSF via Libya and Chad to ayone interested in the regional conflict complex in which the war in Sudan is enmeshed, and in the networks serving UAE interests. globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...

Collateral circuits: The impact of the Sudan's war on arms markets and mercenary networks in Chad and Libya

The war in Sudan has transformed far more than its own frontlines. It has reshaped the security economies of its neighbours, activating new supply nodes and embedding weapons and combatants into cross...

globalinitiative.net

How did the UAE supply the RSF & sustain its war effort in Sudan for 2+ years? What dictated the reliance on Amdjarass, Kufra or other nodes? More broadly, how did Sudan's war affect arms trafficking & mercenary networks in Chad & Libya? My in-depth report: globalinitiative.net/analysis/imp...

Collateral circuits: The impact of the Sudan's war on arms markets and mercenary networks in Chad and Libya

The war in Sudan has transformed far more than its own frontlines. It has reshaped the security economies of its neighbours, activating new supply nodes and embedding weapons and combatants into cross...

globalinitiative.net

Huge kudos to @data.ft.com for putting together this forensic mapping of the utter vileness of the Israel-US "Gaza Humanitarian Foundation" Inside Gaza’s ‘death traps’ www.ft.com/content/6c74... via @data.ft.com

Inside Gaza’s ‘death traps’

A US-backed scheme forces hungry Palestinians to trek kilometres for food aid. Many never make it back

ft.com

My latest, with a view from the ground in #Tripoli: Ankara’s quiet intervention to rein in the GNU reveals a deeper shift - from assertive influence to cautious containment - as #Turkey recalibrates its role in an increasingly unstable capital.

Still in the Game: Ankara’s Quiet Pivot in Libya - A View from Tripoli - Emadeddin Badi

Tripoli, the evening of June 4, 2025. Around sundown, I stood on the corniche of Treeg al-Shat near the Waddan Hotel, watching as a convoy of armored pickups moved hastily toward the Radisson Blu “al-...

emadbadi.com

A failed power grab has eroded trust and deepened rivalries, leaving Tripoli in a state of suspended conflict primed for renewed violence, write @emadbadi.bsky.social and @wlacher.bsky.social‬ for @newlinesmag.bsky.social

A Power Grab Backfires in Tripoli

Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabeiba has set off a series of events destabilizing western Libya, but the structural forces behind the country’s wider stalemate remain strong

newlinesmag.com

'With trust eroded and rivalries deepened, #Tripoli is in a state of suspended conflict, primed for renewed violence.' @emadbadi.bsky.social @wlacher.bsky.social @newlinesmag.bsky.social #Libya newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...

A Power Grab Backfires in Tripoli

Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabeiba has set off a series of events destabilizing western Libya, but the structural forces behind the country’s wider stalemate remain strong

newlinesmag.com

Excellent, must-read analysis of unfolding events in Libya by @emadbadi.bsky.social and @wlacher.bsky.social 👇

Emadeddin Badi@emadbadi.bsky.social · last yr.

After a gambit by #Libya's Dabeiba to consolidate control in #Tripoli backfired, the capital has entered a state of suspended conflict - a tenuous standoff unlikely to hold. In our latest @newlinesmag.bsky.social , @wlacher.bsky.social & I trace the breakdown, aftermath, & potential paths forward.

Excellent review and analysis of the recent fighting and shifting power dynamics in #Tripoli #Libya @wlacher.bsky.social @emadbadi.bsky.social

Wolfram Lacher@wlacher.bsky.social · last yr.

New @newlinesmag.bsky.social piece with @emadbadi.bsky.social, in which we try to make sense of a dramatic set of events in Tripoli over the past two weeks and what they mean for Libya's political stalemate. newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...

New @newlinesmag.bsky.social piece with @emadbadi.bsky.social, in which we try to make sense of a dramatic set of events in Tripoli over the past two weeks and what they mean for Libya's political stalemate. newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...

A Power Grab Backfires in Tripoli

Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabeiba has set off a series of events destabilizing western Libya, but the structural forces behind the country’s wider stalemate remain strong

newlinesmag.com

After a gambit by #Libya's Dabeiba to consolidate control in #Tripoli backfired, the capital has entered a state of suspended conflict - a tenuous standoff unlikely to hold. In our latest @newlinesmag.bsky.social , @wlacher.bsky.social & I trace the breakdown, aftermath, & potential paths forward.

A Power Grab Backfires in Tripoli

Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabeiba has set off a series of events destabilizing western Libya, but the structural forces behind the country’s wider stalemate remain strong

newlinesmag.com

Haaretz’s Yaniv Kubovich reports that Israel plans to seize 75% of Gaza and relocate more than 1,3 million Palestinians in the upcoming offensive, ultimately forcing the entire population into three military zones with food supplies strictly controlled by GHF/Israel. www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...

Literally every experienced humanitarian or medical professional coming out of Gaza says: „this is the worst I have seen, anywhere, anytime“

BBC Newsnight@bbcnewsnight.bsky.social · last yr.

“It’s the worst I’ve ever seen it in Gaza.” British surgeon Dr Victoria Rose tells @vicderbyshire.bsky.social about the current situation at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, Gaza, adding: “there are more patients coming through the door than I have ever witnessed before.” #Newsnight

My latest for @mecouncil.bsky.social unpacks how a bid to rein in militias in #Tripoli unraveled into a war of militias, & what is now at stake. International policy must now pivot from managing dysfunction to enabling transition before #Libya's history repeats itself.

In Tripoli, A War on Militias Quickly Becomes a War of Militias

A recent upsurge in violence in the Libyan capital portends a familiar and dangerous path for the war-torn country, and the urgent need for a political reset.

mecouncil.org

Granular analysis of events unfolding in Tripoli, Libya. recommend reading ⬇️

Emadeddin Badi@emadbadi.bsky.social · last yr.

For those following the latest developments in #Libya's #Tripoli, this analysis outlines what unfolded overnight, covering key military dynamics. It closes with a call for more hands-on empowered mediation to prevent further bloodshed & build on the tenuous ceasefires. emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...

Precious analysis of events in Tripoli over the past 24 hours, by @emadbadi.bsky.social emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...

The Unraveling of "Stability" in Tripoli - Emadeddin Badi

Over the past 24 hours, Tripoli has witnessed a rapid escalation in armed confrontations involving key factions aligned with the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Special Deterrence Force (SD...

emadbadi.com

For those following the latest developments in #Libya's #Tripoli, this analysis outlines what unfolded overnight, covering key military dynamics. It closes with a call for more hands-on empowered mediation to prevent further bloodshed & build on the tenuous ceasefires. emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...

The Unraveling of "Stability" in Tripoli - Emadeddin Badi

Over the past 24 hours, Tripoli has witnessed a rapid escalation in armed confrontations involving key factions aligned with the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Special Deterrence Force (SD...

emadbadi.com

Tripoli may be on the cusp of being the theater for warfare unlike anything seen since 2011 - an urban battlefield marked by drone strikes, street-to-street clashes, & guerilla warfare. The vast majority of casualties in this context will unfortunately be innocent civilians.

For an excellent analysis of Ghnewa's rise, see this @smallarmssurvey.bsky.social paper written under a pseudonym by @emadbadi.bsky.social - Emad outed himself as the author last night. www.smallarmssurvey.org/resource/pol...

A Political Economy of Tripoli’s Abu Salim: The Rise of the Stability Support Apparatus as Hegemon

Once a hotbed of pro-Qaddafi resistance, Abu Salim is now a stronghold dominated by Abdelghani al-Kikli (widely known as ‘Ghaniwa’) and his Stability Support Apparatus (SSA). Ghaniwa has consolidated ...

smallarmssurvey.org

And you know who is in no position to comment on these plans? The EU and its member states, who have been seeking to trap migrants in Libya for the past eight years.

Wolfram Lacher@wlacher.bsky.social · last yr.

If the first deportation flight to Libya does leave today, we will find out which of the two rival ruling families the Trump administration has reached a deal with. It's most likely the Haftars, believing they can handle the negative public reaction this will trigger. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/u...

Heartbroken at the passing of Pope Francis, a man who may not have been perfect but who consistently used his immense platform and his influence not only to say what was right in the face of political power, but also to model the behavior that brought those words to life. (1)

Excellent recap of the recent crisis in the Libyan economy short, concise, and well done. Please give it a read

Emadeddin Badi@emadbadi.bsky.social · last yr.

My latest for the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social is a clarion call: #Libya’s economy isn’t unraveling by accident. From shadow oil deals to digital money printing, what looks like drift is direction - & the path leads to collapse unless reforms reverse course.

My latest for the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social is a clarion call: #Libya’s economy isn’t unraveling by accident. From shadow oil deals to digital money printing, what looks like drift is direction - & the path leads to collapse unless reforms reverse course.

Solving Libya’s economic collapse will require confrontation—not consensus

If the status quo continues, the next phase of Libya’s crisis will not be quiet erosion. It will be public revolt.

atlanticcouncil.org

In one world, Libya's Central Bank begs for help - calling out graft, diverted oil revenues, and wild spending that's sinking Libya; all while passing policy that makes ordinary people foot the bill. In another world, Libya is “stable” and “open for business.” Only one of these worlds is real.

Al Jazeera Correspondent Hossam Shabat was killed by Israeli forces today in a targeted strike on is car. He was 23 years old. His final social media post reported fellow journalist Mohammed Mansour’s killing an hour earlier. ≈200 of our colleagues have now been killed in Gaza.

The parallels between Libya and Iraq thoroughly explored in this groundbreaking comparative study. Stellar cast of authors incl. @wlacher.bsky.social @emadbadi.bsky.social @timeaton.bsky.social @renadmansour.bsky.social Inna Rudolf Salam Said Tamer Badawi

Wolfram Lacher@wlacher.bsky.social · last yr.

Libya and Iraq share some striking parallels, yet they have rarely been considered alongside each other. We are embarking on a comparative analysis of state formation under conditions of fragmented central authority. This collection is the first step in this process. library.fes.de/pdf-files/bu...

#Libya’s post-2011 trajectory has been defined by the entrenchment of armed groups within state structures, raising a critical puzzle: how have militias wielded state power while remaining autonomous from it? In my contribution to this volume, I take the first steps in unraveling this paradox

Wolfram Lacher@wlacher.bsky.social · last yr.

Libya and Iraq share some striking parallels, yet they have rarely been considered alongside each other. We are embarking on a comparative analysis of state formation under conditions of fragmented central authority. This collection is the first step in this process. library.fes.de/pdf-files/bu...