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Hannah Rajski

@hannahrajski.bsky.social

📈 Election forecasting & vote expectations in 🇩🇪 | Zweitstimme.org | PhD student @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social 👩‍💼 she/her

13 Posts276 Follower274 Folgt
Hannah Rajski@hannahrajski.bsky.social · 2w ago

It’s a wrap! The 2026 Summer School for Women* in Political Methodology has come to an end. It was such a pleasure to welcome so many inspiring women* to Mannheim!

Melanie Sauter@melinscribe.bsky.social · 2w ago

Day 5 of our Summer School for Women* in Political Methodology! It’s been inspiring to see participants from across countries exchange ideas, build collaborations, and strengthen a supportive research community. Huge thanks to our fantastic speakers, organizing team, and supporters! 🙌 #PolMeth #WPM

Jack Bailey@jack-bailey.co.uk · 5mo ago

*Academics of Bluesky:* Do you know a great UG/PG student with excellent quants skills? @nspmartin.bsky.social and I are advertising a great fully-funded PhD on MRP and minority voting with our friends at Ipsos, so send them our way! ✌️ www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

Beyond Forecasting: Using MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) to investigate minority political behaviour at The University of Manchester on FindAPhD.com

PhD Project - Beyond Forecasting: Using MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) to investigate minority political behaviour at The University of Manchester, listed on FindAPhD.com

findaphd.com

Hannah Rajski@hannahrajski.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Join us for this year‘s Summer School for Women* in Political Methodology at @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social. Applications are open until March 1.

Melanie Sauter@melinscribe.bsky.social · 6mo ago

🚨 Join us for the next edition Summer School for Women* in Political Methodology in Mannheim 🚨 7 days of hands-on advanced methods + networking for PhDs, postdocs & early-career researchers. Free of charge (limited travel support). Deadline 1 March 2026: summerschoolwpm.org #methodsky #polisky

Belén Abdala@beluabdala.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Had a great time at the @zweitstimme.bsky.social Workshop on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behavior. I presented my work on why minority groups vote, and how these motivations relate to turnout among LGB and ethnic minorities. Amazing conversations and a very inspiring group!

zweitstimme.org@zweitstimme.bsky.social · 9mo ago

🎉 Kicking off the Zweitstimme.org Workshop! We’re looking forward to two days discussing new work on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour. Today’s sessions: 👉 Panel I – Elites 👉 Panel II – Participation 👉 Panel III – Party Strategies Huge thanks to @hertieschool.bsky.social for hosting us!

Ruth Dassonneville@rdassonneville.bsky.social · 9mo ago

So great to be in Berlin for this fantastic @zweitstimme.bsky.social workshop! I presented joint work with @bjarneck.bsky.social and @bramwauters.bsky.social on the limited effects of mobilizing measures following the abolition of compulsory voting in Flanders.

zweitstimme.org@zweitstimme.bsky.social · 9mo ago

🎉 Kicking off the Zweitstimme.org Workshop! We’re looking forward to two days discussing new work on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour. Today’s sessions: 👉 Panel I – Elites 👉 Panel II – Participation 👉 Panel III – Party Strategies Huge thanks to @hertieschool.bsky.social for hosting us!

Elena Leuschner@elenaleuschner.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Had an absolutely amazing time! Great presentations + discussions, incl. impressive data collections from 160 treatments to 30,000 respondents Thank you for the immaculate organization @eliaskoch.bsky.social @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social @hannahrajski.bsky.social @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social

zweitstimme.org@zweitstimme.bsky.social · 9mo ago

🎉 Kicking off the Zweitstimme.org Workshop! We’re looking forward to two days discussing new work on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour. Today’s sessions: 👉 Panel I – Elites 👉 Panel II – Participation 👉 Panel III – Party Strategies Huge thanks to @hertieschool.bsky.social for hosting us!

EPSS@epssnet.bsky.social · last yr.

EPSA have announced that they will hold a conference in July 2026. 😵‍💫 We understand that there might be some confusion about EPSS and EPSA. 👉🏽 So we thought we would clarify some things. A short 🧵

Hannah Rajski@hannahrajski.bsky.social · last yr.

Truly honored to be at the #WPM summer school and grateful for the chance to connect with so many inspiring women*. Looking forward to the next days! Big thanks to the organizers for making it all happen!

Sophia Hunger@sophiahunger.bsky.social · last yr.

What an inspiring first day at the Summer School for Women* in Political Methodology here in Bremen yesterday! We were honored to be welcomed by the president of @unibremen.bsky.social‬, Prof. Jutta Günther, (1)

Hannah Rajski@hannahrajski.bsky.social · last yr.

Interested in election forecasting? 📊🗳️ Check out @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social and my talk on different forecasting models for the 2025 German election and insights into our Zweitstimme.org research project.

MZES Social Science Data Lab@mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · last yr.

🚨 Content alert 🚨 New recording and workshop materials published! ➡️ Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches 👤 @hannahrajski.bsky.social (Uni Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke Uni) 📺 youtu.be/iQXUQ3NsKsk 🗒️ github.com/SocialScienc...

Ruth Dassonneville@rdassonneville.bsky.social · last yr.

‼️ There are a few more days left to apply for the PhD positions in my group at KU Leuven. Make sure to send in applications by July 4! 👇

Ruth Dassonneville@rdassonneville.bsky.social · last yr.

I'm recruiting 2 PhD researchers to work with me on a project studying how social groups influence vote choices! Info on the position and how to apply 👉 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo... Please share with interested students who would like to move to beautiful Leuven!

Hannah Rajski@hannahrajski.bsky.social · last yr.

Really enjoyed Day 1 of #EPSA25 here in Madrid! ☀️ Today I’ll be presenting insights from our Zweitstimme.org pre-election survey on Germans’ electoral expectations 🇩🇪🗳️ 🔍 What affected citizens’ accuracy?
🔍 Can financial incentives improve accuracy? 
VOTBEH – When do campaigns work
📅 11:20
📍 OA.10

EPSS@epssnet.bsky.social · last yr.

🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨 We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community. 🔗 epssnet.org Here’s a thread with everything you need to know. 🧵

Klara Müller@klaramueller.bsky.social · last yr.

🚨 Excited to see my first solo-authored paper now published in IJPOR! 🚨 Do election outcomes affect participation in post-election surveys? And specifically, do election winners respond more than losers? The short answer: not really. The slightly longer answer: 🧵👇 academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...

Survey Nonresponse After Elections: Investigating the Role of Winner-Loser Effects in Panel Attrition

Abstract. When and for whom do election outcomes drive survey nonresponse? This paper investigates whether belonging to the winners or losers of an electio

academic.oup.com

MZES Social Science Data Lab@mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · last yr.

🕑 Join us *today* at 13:45 CEST for the talk 'Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches' by @hannahrajski.bsky.social (University of Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke University). ⬇️ Zoom link and details below

MZES Social Science Data Lab@mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · last yr.

🚨 Upcoming: "Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches" 👤 @hannahrajski.bsky.social (Uni Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke Uni) 🗓️ Wed, May 21, 13:45-15:15 CET 📺 Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches Abstract The Zweitstimme.org project presents a comprehensive approach to forecasting the 2025 German federal election, combining multiple methodologies to predict both party vote shares (Zweitstimme) and constituency-level outcomes (Erststimme). This presentation showcases three distinct forecasting approaches: a dynamic Zweitstimme model, a proportional swing Erststimme model, and citizen forecasting. The project also communicated the forecasts and their uncertainties to the public, with results being shared in various media outlets. Presenter(s) Hannah Rajski is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences at the University of Mannheim. She works in the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. Her main research interests lie in quantitative methods, comparative politics, and political sociology with a focus on political behaviour and elections. In her dissertation she analyses voters‘ expectations about election outcomes and how these can be aggregated into citizen forecasts. Hannah holds a bachelor’s degree in Politics, Administration and International Relations from Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany and a master’s degree in Politics and Public Administration from the University of Konstanz, Germany. Cornelius Erfort is Postdoc at the Witten/Herdecke University, working on the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. His general interests are in comparative politics and quantitative methods. More specifically, he is working on voter targeting, interest groups, and voting behavior. In his dissertation, he analyzed how parties use the target and tailor their digital election ads. He was a member of the Research Training Group DYNAMICS which is jointly organized by Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin and the Hertie School.
Cornelius Erfort@cornelius-erfort.bsky.social · last yr.

I'm on my way to Mannheim, looking forward to talk about our forecasting project (zweitstimme.org) with @hannahrajski.bsky.social. Join us at the MZES or online 🤗

zweitstimme.org

zweitstimme.org: Die wissenschaftliche Vorhersage zur Bundestagswahl

zweitstimme.org

MZES Social Science Data Lab@mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · last yr.

🚨 Upcoming: "Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches" 👤 @hannahrajski.bsky.social (Uni Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke Uni) 🗓️ Wed, May 21, 13:45-15:15 CET 📺 Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches Abstract The Zweitstimme.org project presents a comprehensive approach to forecasting the 2025 German federal election, combining multiple methodologies to predict both party vote shares (Zweitstimme) and constituency-level outcomes (Erststimme). This presentation showcases three distinct forecasting approaches: a dynamic Zweitstimme model, a proportional swing Erststimme model, and citizen forecasting. The project also communicated the forecasts and their uncertainties to the public, with results being shared in various media outlets. Presenter(s) Hannah Rajski is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences at the University of Mannheim. She works in the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. Her main research interests lie in quantitative methods, comparative politics, and political sociology with a focus on political behaviour and elections. In her dissertation she analyses voters‘ expectations about election outcomes and how these can be aggregated into citizen forecasts. Hannah holds a bachelor’s degree in Politics, Administration and International Relations from Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany and a master’s degree in Politics and Public Administration from the University of Konstanz, Germany. Cornelius Erfort is Postdoc at the Witten/Herdecke University, working on the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. His general interests are in comparative politics and quantitative methods. More specifically, he is working on voter targeting, interest groups, and voting behavior. In his dissertation, he analyzed how parties use the target and tailor their digital election ads. He was a member of the Research Training Group DYNAMICS which is jointly organized by Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin and the Hertie School.
Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences - GESS@gessunimannheim.bsky.social · last yr.

📣 If you are interested in election forecasting, cancel your plans! CDSS doctoral candidate @hannahrajski.bsky.social and co-author Dr. @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social will be sharing their work at the MZES Social Science Data Lab. Time, location, and abstract below. Don’t miss it.

MZES Social Science Data Lab@mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · last yr.

🚨 Upcoming: "Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches" 👤 @hannahrajski.bsky.social (Uni Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke Uni) 🗓️ Wed, May 21, 13:45-15:15 CET 📺 Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches Abstract The Zweitstimme.org project presents a comprehensive approach to forecasting the 2025 German federal election, combining multiple methodologies to predict both party vote shares (Zweitstimme) and constituency-level outcomes (Erststimme). This presentation showcases three distinct forecasting approaches: a dynamic Zweitstimme model, a proportional swing Erststimme model, and citizen forecasting. The project also communicated the forecasts and their uncertainties to the public, with results being shared in various media outlets. Presenter(s) Hannah Rajski is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences at the University of Mannheim. She works in the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. Her main research interests lie in quantitative methods, comparative politics, and political sociology with a focus on political behaviour and elections. In her dissertation she analyses voters‘ expectations about election outcomes and how these can be aggregated into citizen forecasts. Hannah holds a bachelor’s degree in Politics, Administration and International Relations from Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany and a master’s degree in Politics and Public Administration from the University of Konstanz, Germany. Cornelius Erfort is Postdoc at the Witten/Herdecke University, working on the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. His general interests are in comparative politics and quantitative methods. More specifically, he is working on voter targeting, interest groups, and voting behavior. In his dissertation, he analyzed how parties use the target and tailor their digital election ads. He was a member of the Research Training Group DYNAMICS which is jointly organized by Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin and the Hertie School.
Hannah Rajski@hannahrajski.bsky.social · last yr.

Looking forward to presenting our latest insights from forecasting the German federal election (zweitstimme.org) with @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social. Join us at the MZES or online!

MZES Social Science Data Lab@mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · last yr.

🚨 Upcoming: "Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches" 👤 @hannahrajski.bsky.social (Uni Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke Uni) 🗓️ Wed, May 21, 13:45-15:15 CET 📺 Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches Abstract The Zweitstimme.org project presents a comprehensive approach to forecasting the 2025 German federal election, combining multiple methodologies to predict both party vote shares (Zweitstimme) and constituency-level outcomes (Erststimme). This presentation showcases three distinct forecasting approaches: a dynamic Zweitstimme model, a proportional swing Erststimme model, and citizen forecasting. The project also communicated the forecasts and their uncertainties to the public, with results being shared in various media outlets. Presenter(s) Hannah Rajski is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences at the University of Mannheim. She works in the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. Her main research interests lie in quantitative methods, comparative politics, and political sociology with a focus on political behaviour and elections. In her dissertation she analyses voters‘ expectations about election outcomes and how these can be aggregated into citizen forecasts. Hannah holds a bachelor’s degree in Politics, Administration and International Relations from Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany and a master’s degree in Politics and Public Administration from the University of Konstanz, Germany. Cornelius Erfort is Postdoc at the Witten/Herdecke University, working on the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. His general interests are in comparative politics and quantitative methods. More specifically, he is working on voter targeting, interest groups, and voting behavior. In his dissertation, he analyzed how parties use the target and tailor their digital election ads. He was a member of the Research Training Group DYNAMICS which is jointly organized by Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin and the Hertie School.