New Q2 2026 UK trade data this morning. While the impact of the Iran war will be the first thing on people’s mind, it seems to still be too early to see the full pass-through effects on UK trade.
Stephen Hunsaker
@hunsaker.bsky.social
Economist @ Resolution Foundation Analogue filmmaker and photographer
0.4%. That is the headline figure for the UK economy in the second quarter of this year. While not quite as strong as last quarter (0.6%), growth was stronger than the Bank of England forecast at 0.3%.
RIP Bonnie Tyler. And RIP Tandi Iman Dupree. This remains the best stage entrance by a drag queen of all time, even some 25 years later, and the best use of Tyler’s “Holding Out for a Hero” ever. youtu.be/IHQA5vqn6rw?...
...Make sure you read the full report by @sophiehale.bsky.social @simonpittaway.bsky.social & @hunsaker.bsky.social Leaving EU Behind: How Britain lost its trading edge and whether Brexit is to blame www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Leaving EU behind • Resolution Foundation
A decade after the Brexit vote, the UK has lost its trading edge in goods faster and more broadly than any G7 peer. This briefing note explores why that has happened, and what the Government must do t...
resolutionfoundation.org
Why is the UK such an outlier on trade? Most countries have pretty consistent exports from one decade to the next, but in the past 5 years the UK’s trade profile has lurched in the opposite direction to almost everyone else. On our substack, @hunsaker.bsky.social digs in to what has happened⬇️
Britain is doubling down, as other economies rebalance their trade.
Most countries have pretty consistent exports from one decade to the next. Stephen Hunsaker asks why the UK’s trade profile has lurched in the opposite direction to almost everyone else.
buff.ly
With a h/t to @anandmenon.bsky.social (and all at UK in a Changing Europe) as well as @jonnelledge.bsky.social (just avoid reading BTL in the Guardian article)
Anand Menon@anandmenon.bsky.social · last yr.
"The government's argument sounds plausible. There's just one problem. It doesn't fit the facts. And the government knows it." www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
There’s only one problem with Labour’s immigration plans: they’re completely untethered from reality | Jonathan Portes
The government’s new policy will take us back to an uglier, more dangerous place – and it’s not even supported by the data, says professor of public policy Jonathan Portes
theguardian.com
Labour wants to curb immigration: but doesn't want to engage in social care reform It wants to curb student visas and encourage more UK training: but wont fund unis or FE colleges. It just tells voter they can have both. /2
59% of the public, and 64% of 2024 Labour voters, agree that migrants living in the UK and paying taxes should be eligible to apply for citizenship after five years or less, according to our new Focaldata research. www.britishfuture.org/white-paper-... #ImmigrationWhitePaper
British Future@britishfuture.bsky.social · last yr.New British Future research, published ahead of the government’s expected Immigration White Paper, find more balanced public views on immigration for work or study: www.britishfuture.org/white-paper-...
Trump hasn’t named the UK as a tariff target… but it’s not ‘if’, it’s ‘when’ says @hunsaker.bsky.social 👇 www.express.co.uk/news/politic...
Donald Trump disaster looms for Keir Starmer in ticking timebomb for UK | Politics | News | Express.co.uk
It's less a question of 'if' when it comes to one Donald Trump tactic and more a question of 'when?'.
express.co.uk
I know amist Trump tariff news that the PEM Convention is on sooooo many people’s mind. Tl:dr PEM will have modest impact on UK trade, but it can be a decent first step in a UK-EU ‘reset’ for trade. Can also listen starting at 38 mins on Moncole. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...
Netanyahu goes to Washington
Podcast Episode · The Globalist · 02/03/2025 · 58m
podcasts.apple.com
UK in a Changing Europe@ukandeu.bsky.social · 2y ago🤝 The EU has recently suggested that it would be open to the UK joining the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean (PEM) Convention 🤔 But what exactly is the PEM convention? What does it do? And what might its impact be? 🤩 UKICE's @hunsaker.bsky.social explains all! 👇 https://buff.ly/4hy4Akc
I completely agree, the message from this cabinet is clear: it is not ‘business as usual’
Paul Krugman@pkrugman.bsky.social · 2y agoSo, to everyone who thought the Bessent pick meant that Trump would be reasonable on economic policy: I hope you enjoyed your vacation from reality 1/ www.nytimes.com/2024/11/25/b...
I completely agree, I think the message from this selected cabinet is it will not ‘business as usual’
Paul Krugman@pkrugman.bsky.social · 2y agoSo, to everyone who thought the Bessent pick meant that Trump would be reasonable on economic policy: I hope you enjoyed your vacation from reality 1/ www.nytimes.com/2024/11/25/b...
Tl;dr The UK should take a two ponged approach: focus first on closing loopholes in the current system while doing that start the long process of implementing a wealth tax in the future. ukandeu.ac.uk/is-it-time-f...
ukandeu.ac.uk
As always @emilyfry.bsky.social is coming in with quick and brilliant analysis of ONS trade data. Some worrying services number to watch while some growth in non-EU goods. Definitely give her a follow!
Emily Fry@emilyfry.bsky.social · 2y agoQuarterly ONS trade data is out this morning after Reeves plugged ‘free and open trade’ in last night’s Mansion House speech. But total trade fell this quarter in current prices – exports fell by 2.4% and imports by 1.6%. A short thread to come...
This week's edition of MFN looks at what a UK-US Free Trade Agreement (or rather, free trade agreement) could look like. Also why I'd hate to be the Pitcairn islands right now. mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/a-uk-us-fr...
A UK-US Free Trade Agreement?
And why the Falklands and Pitcairn are at risk
mostfavourednation.substack.com
While a man who said Prozac is the cause of school shootings is being put in charge of health in the US, in London I went and saw Roots with Morfydd Clark at Almeida Theatre and thought it was very well done and would recommend it. You win some you lose some.
🚨🚨 It took me ages and I am pretty certain I missed a number of people that should be on the list but I made my first starter pack now for #brexit and #ukpolitics here: go.bsky.app/NZG5maf
Reposting our UK in a Changing Europe researchers and academics (past and present) starter pack for our new followers! Follow for evidence-based analysis and insights 👇 go.bsky.app/796PuWt
Wednesday I was depressed. Thursday I rage-wrote and @labourlist.bsky.social was kind enough to publish my thoughts post-US election. labourlist.org/2024/11/us-e...
‘Is it the economy, stupid? Why politicians need to create a human-felt economy’ – LabourList
For nearly the last half century, the top issue for US voters has been the economy. But as the dust starts to settle on the…
labourlist.org
Oh how was Tory Party Conference?? Very educational, very demure, very mindful…
Great experience on the Kings College London panel on the upcoming US election. youtu.be/pN601G3basY?... For a quick catch up before the election check out my explainer. ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/t...
Um what’s that next to the cheese? Oh, Don’t mind that, it’s just £1,200 of 16mm film, normal fridge things ya know.
🚨🚨 "The UK has potentially lost £44 billion in public investment due to Brexit". @hunsaker.bsky.social has an excellent follow up analysis of a year old @ukandeu.bsky.social report on UK's public investment gap. Tldr; things are not looking better. 🧵 ukandeu.ac.uk/the-uk-has-p...
The UK has potentially lost £44 billion in public investment due to Brexit - UK in a changing Europe
Stephen Hunsaker highlights that the UK has potentially lost over £44 billion in public investment since 2017.
ukandeu.ac.uk
They handed out pastel de natas at the premiere of Poor Things at the London Film Festival… I’m not saying it helped but it definitely didn’t hurt when I gave it five stars. Review: boxd.it/4ZT9XR
Me: can I buy hunger games? Mom: we have hunger games at home…
Wales: we are putting a dragon on our flag. Zheleznogorsk, Russia: hold my vodka
