New working paper from Stuart Perrett, @drjennings.bsky.social , @jonmellon.bsky.social , @cbwlezien.bsky.social and me: Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family osf.io/preprints/so...

🚨POST BY ME & CALLUM HUNTER-DAWSON🚨 Richard Nixon’s career offers remarkably complete education in modern elections, political science, sociology, media theory, international relations, economics and so much more. This article looks at this life up to 1968 when he became president

How Richard Nixon's life explains modern politics (Part 1)

Social class, material insecurity, status resentment, generations, media image, electoral coalitions, demography and the median voter

substack.com

“The “coalitions” that politicians talk about are, after all, composed of people, not idiots... That this coalition could be described demographically—i.e., blacks, union labor, Jews, etc.—was because demography influences attitude, not because some political boss could deliver a bloc vote."

"Most voters, most often, are not primarily political beings. Thus, neither New Politics, nor Old Politics, nor malaise, nor hatred is the most important thing in the lives of most American voters."

"Humphrey’s plight on the crime issue was exacerbated by some incredible ideological verbiage on the part of liberals... Politically, liberal Democrats should actively have been trying to separate the crime issue from the race issue; instead, they were busy as beavers linking them."

"[The] Middle Voter is a forty-seven-year-old housewife from the outskirts of Dayton, Ohio, whose husband is a machinist. She very likely has a somewhat different view of life and politics from that of a twenty-four-year-old instructor of political science at Yale." FAO: the entirety of Bluesky!!!

On this, if you ever get your hands on Richard M. Scammon & Ben J. Wattenberg's book "The Real Majority", you should read it. Their insights from 1970 are just as relevant today as they were back then. 🧵👇

James Breckwoldt@jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · yesterday

🚨POST BY ME & CALLUM HUNTER-DAWSON🚨 Richard Nixon’s career offers remarkably complete education in modern elections, political science, sociology, media theory, international relations, economics and so much more. This article looks at this life up to 1968 when he became president

Two(!) permanent lectureships coming up at Cardiff: One in political behaviour/opinion cardiffuniweb.eploy.net/vacancies/52... One in British politics (very loosely defined) cardiffuniweb.eploy.net/vacancies/53... Feel free to get in touch and I'll be happy to answer any questions I can

Another fantastic entry in one of the best stacks you could subscribe to. Well worth a read over your coffee today, whether you like it black or unblack ☕️👇👇

James Breckwoldt@jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · yesterday

🚨POST BY ME & CALLUM HUNTER-DAWSON🚨 Richard Nixon’s career offers remarkably complete education in modern elections, political science, sociology, media theory, international relations, economics and so much more. This article looks at this life up to 1968 when he became president

On this, if you ever get your hands on Richard M. Scammon & Ben J. Wattenberg's book "The Real Majority", you should read it. Their insights from 1970 are just as relevant today as they were back then. 🧵👇

James Breckwoldt@jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · yesterday

🚨POST BY ME & CALLUM HUNTER-DAWSON🚨 Richard Nixon’s career offers remarkably complete education in modern elections, political science, sociology, media theory, international relations, economics and so much more. This article looks at this life up to 1968 when he became president

🚨POST BY ME & CALLUM HUNTER-DAWSON🚨 Richard Nixon’s career offers remarkably complete education in modern elections, political science, sociology, media theory, international relations, economics and so much more. This article looks at this life up to 1968 when he became president

How Richard Nixon's life explains modern politics (Part 1)

Social class, material insecurity, status resentment, generations, media image, electoral coalitions, demography and the median voter

substack.com

“McAllister and Klaveness represented their countries at times when their nations hardly represented them. McAllister was one of three women to lobby the Welsh FA to formally recognise the women’s national team in 1992.” - @lauramcallister30.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/athletic/748...

Two women led the resistance to Infantino's World Cup sell-off. That matters

nytimes.com

Terrific and rightly angry piece this:

Rory Waterman@rorywaterman.bsky.social · 4d ago

Some notes by little me on recent, hugely damaging, shamefully shameless events at Cambridge University. rorywaterman.substack.com/p/notes-on-a-cambridge-debacle If you read only one article about what has happened, try the new piece by Lanre Bakare in the Guardian, linked in my blog post.

“Schemes such as this will keep returning in different forms as long as FIFA is structured to profit from the decisions it makes. Only institutional reform can break that cycle.” Sharp piece by @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social for Arguably on how to fix FIFA. www.arguably.uk/p/infantino-...

Infantino isn’t the problem

FIFA’s conflicting incentives are the root of this crisis – here’s how to fix them.

arguably.uk

It’s not out for another six months or so, but *Electoral Realignment: How Brexit Reshaped British Voting Behaviour*, my book with Ed Fieldhouse, @profjanegreen.bsky.social , Geoff Evans, @jack-bailey.co.uk and @jonmellon.bsky.social, is up on the OUP website! global.oup.com/academic/pro...

Some academics seem to be committed to proving that conservative enemies of academia are entirely right about it. I still think they aren't and that most scholars just want to ignore this shit to stay out of trouble, but that there are professional academics defending obvious plagiarism is shocking

Alan Lester@alanlester.bsky.social · last wk.

Disgusted with @thetimes for presenting this non-story. If it has to be covered at all it should be framed as Discredited Racist Smears Black Cambridge Professor in Sustained Campaign to Undermine Him. Arday quoted & cited sources appropriately. www.thetimes.com/uk/education...

But ultimately the *starting point* for many commentators seems to be “oh here we go again, we’re indulging those uneducated, backwards looking people in the provinces”

Going 1-0 up in a knock out game and then sitting as deep as possible for as long as possible

battle plan (blackadder)

YouTube video by Sanja Maksimovic

youtube.com

To reiterate, the number of early career researchers in social sciences in the UK dropped by 8% in *one year* Based on what we saw in our job ads data I assume it was the same again or worse in 2025-36

Margot Finn@eicathomefinn.bsky.social · 3w ago

'The decline is most pronounced in the humanities, where the number of ECRs has fallen by 20 per cent since 2016-17. ECR numbers in the social sciences also fell sharply in 2024-25, by 8 per cent, though this followed a broadly positive trend since 2012-13.' 2/3

🚨New research for the Bevan Foundation on economic (in)security in Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Full report, based on framework of @profjanegreen.bsky.social et al with @jrf-uk.bsky.social, here in English: tinyurl.com/2prrsdpj & Cymraeg: tinyurl.com/mwavt63a Thread below on a couple of things that stood out:

Going to be interesting to see what the other parties do in Clacton. Con are second and will doubtless fight hard Labour might prefer a Farage defeat even if Cons are the winners? Even more so for LD/Grn voters but would they be willing to vote Con? Will Restore put up a high profile candidate?

This is a great article, especially on the importance of national identity for the rise and fall of Welsh Labour Mae hon yn erthygl wych, yn enwedig ar bwysigrwydd hunaniaeth genedlaethol i dwf a chwymp Llafur Cymru

I told you this segment could be important... jamesbreckwoldt.shinyapps.io/randomvoters...

Mexicans are most relaxed about Iran, though Americans and Canadians still lean in favour Mexicans are keenest on Mamdani-style discounts for local residents Canadians are most insistent FIFA foots bill for hosting and most sceptical tournament is worth it if costs overrun

For Americans, the biggest fear is Trump overshadowing the tournament or immigration enforcement controversies Canadians and Mexicans are more focused on prices and costs, particularly that tickets, travel and hotels will simply be too expensive for ordinary fans.

Americans are split on what they want from the World Cup, with no single goal commanding the room. Canadians and Mexicans are clearer, and top of both their lists is boosting the national economy Mexicans also want to show off their culture to the world

When asked how excited they are about the World Cup, soccer fans are excited, scoring around 8/10 on average in all three. Problem for US and Canada is there are not many of them. Among vast majority here who do not follow soccer, excitement drops sharply to 3.7 in US and 2.6 in Canada

Then there is the small matter of whether people actually like the sport. In Mexico, 70% say they regularly watch or play. In the USA and Canada, it is closer to one in five (22% and 24%), trailing the NFL, basketball and ice hockey. They are, for the most part, not soccer countries.

Americans rate the current state of relations with Canada positively and see those with Mexico as roughly neutral. However, Canadians are very gloomy about the state of relations with the USA, and Mexicans lean negative on the same question too. Not the ideal backdrop for the tournament