Jack Bailey
@jack-bailey.co.uk
Political Scientist at the University of Manchester Co-Director of the British Election Study https://www.jack-bailey.co.uk
If you don't already, you should follow @fintan-smith.bsky.social and @dylanspielman.bsky.social. Easily two of the smartest people I've met in polling.
Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)@fintan-smith.bsky.social · 2d agoFirst MRP of the Burnham premiership from @convergent-opinion.bsky.social 👀
New working paper from Stuart Perrett, @drjennings.bsky.social , @jonmellon.bsky.social , @cbwlezien.bsky.social and me: Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family osf.io/preprints/so...
OSF
osf.io
Once again we’re in the Arrested Development meme. Did trying to get single market access without free movement of people work in the past? God no … but it might work for us.
Simon Usherwood@simonusherwood.bsky.social · 10h agoNick Boles on his plan for a European confederation. Paper with Demos coming later www.thetimes.com/article/8459...
This feels like such an obvious own goal. Sure, people deserve 2nd chances but: 1) The guy was a Nazi! 2) You spent years calling out antisemitism in Labour 3) Why spend political capital on him when there are people just like him *who weren’t Nazis*! www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Ex-MP urges Tories to drop candidate jailed for campaign of antisemitic abuse against her
Luciana Berger says Joshua Bonehill-Paine should have no role in public life because of ‘his racism and his view of women’
theguardian.com
Strongly recommend the MC Escher exhibition at Somerset House. Also bonus points to whoever came up with the idea of having the sign for the exhibition at the bottom of the stair well.
About once a decade the British government tries to reinvent Grammar Schools and you just have to wait it out
One issue is that the question doesn't clarify which group the referent is. Should the respondent compare to some average, a member of their ethnic group, or to a white person? I suspect a lot of people assume (even implicitly) "compared to my own group".
YouGov@yougov.co.uk · 2d agoWhite people and ethnic minorities disagree over how police treat ethnic groups Treatment of White people White say: more strict 28% / more lenient 21% Ethnic minority say: strict 11% / lenient 45% Treatment of Muslims White say: strict 17% / lenient 37% EM say: strict 39% / lenient 23%
Aktuelle Situation des Berliner Parteiensystems
Deutschland Wählt / Österreich Wählt@de.whln.eu · 2w agoBERLIN | Sonntagsfrage Abgeordnetenhauswahl INSA/NIUS AfD: 19% (+1) CDU: 18% (-2) LINKE: 18% (+3) GRÜNE: 16% (+1) SPD: 13% (-3) FDP: 4% BSW: 4% Sonstige: 8% Änderungen zur letzten Umfrage vom 15. Mai 2026 Verlauf: whln.eu/UmfragenBerlin #aghw
🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 2 August 2026 25% 🌹 Labour 23% ➡️ Reform 20% 🌳 Conservative 11% 🍃 Green 11% 🐥 Lib Dem 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP
A part of the "hidden curriculum" of academia that was entirely unknown to me until fairly late in my career is the thing where people cold-email each other about meeting up at conferences. So here's general advice to junior scholars, and an offer: (1/n)
What might Number Ten North look like? Well, our experts think it would likely involve the famous front door, alongside - of course - one of Manchester's famous giant killer bees
The 2026 Greater Manchester election was a political science experiment to explore the conditions required for an entirely discourse-free election. The study has now concluded, and the University of Manchester thanks you all for your participation
We are reaching levels of American baking that shouldn't even be possible
POV: you are a forex trader when the government intervenes
Bill McKay@mckay4senate.bsky.social · 6d agoBeing a degenerate currency trader is probably so fun
Great to have an opportunity to vote in an election *not* held under first-past-the-post today. Even if it was the supplementary vote 🗳️🐝
Can't wait for you get your hands on our book! It's worth reading Chris' thread, but I want to highlight our data: we harmonised questions across all of the BES face-to-face surveys, giving us an unprecedented perspective on long-run British politics. Plus, it creates a ton of cool graphs!
Chris Prosser@caprosser.com · last wk.It’s not out for another six months or so, but *Electoral Realignment: How Brexit Reshaped British Voting Behaviour*, my book with Ed Fieldhouse, @profjanegreen.bsky.social , Geoff Evans, @jack-bailey.co.uk and @jonmellon.bsky.social, is up on the OUP website! global.oup.com/academic/pro...
It’s not out for another six months or so, but *Electoral Realignment: How Brexit Reshaped British Voting Behaviour*, my book with Ed Fieldhouse, @profjanegreen.bsky.social , Geoff Evans, @jack-bailey.co.uk and @jonmellon.bsky.social, is up on the OUP website! global.oup.com/academic/pro...
ukranian special forces have been the most effective environmental activists of the 21st century
Simon Evans@drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · last wk.Wind and solar have just overtaken fossil-fuel power in Germany www.carbonbrief.org/...
There are two clear problems with this view: 1) Sometimes data are too frequent and jagged lines become imperceptibly close 2) These measures are noisy and you shouldn’t necessarily trust that the raw data
Soumaya Keynes@soumayakeynes.ft.com · last wk.When I'm queen I will ban line graphs with curvy lines instead of jagged ones. Curvy ones make it hard to see how high frequency the data are and make it hard to read specific data points. I will hear no opposing views on the matter.
I've started to keep notes in @obsidian.md using a simplified and AI-assisted version of the Zettelkasten method and I cannot tell you how satisfying it is to click the graph view and see your little mind map emerge.
Andy Burnham may be giving people some breathing space on the cost of living, but the cost of normal crisis remains as serious as it has ever been
Lord Glasman Wrote A Song For The Exiled Crown Prince Of Iran And Played It To Him
Exclusive: Labour peer Maurice Glasman wrote and recorded a song dedicated to Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah of Iran, in support of his exi...
politicshome.com
Not an economist, but here’s a little idea I mocked up on how to deal with this jack-bailey.co.uk/writing/grow...
Jack Bailey | The Tax Curve
A thought experiment for replacing tax bands with a continuous income tax curve.
jack-bailey.co.uk
Tom Roberts@tpgroberts.bsky.social · last wk.0-12k - 0% 12k - 50k - 28% 50k - 100k 42% 100k - 125k - 62% 125k+ - 47% Unless you have a Plan 2 loan, when you gain another threshold at 30k and can add 9% to every number after that.
Italy is changing its electoral system (again): the fifth reform since 1993. I wrote for @laderafrutal.bsky.social's Fruits & Votes blog on how the new bonus-adjusted system works, why the government wants it, and its political implications. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2026/07/27/i...
Italy is changing its electoral system (again)
Nicknamed the “Stabilicum” by the right-wing coalition government that introduced it, this would be the fifth major electoral reform in Italy since 1993.
fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
Unbelievably, there are *two* academic jobs at Cardiff University. One in British politics (seemingly broadly defined) cardiffuniweb.eploy.net/vacancies/53... One in political behaviour/opinion 🙌 cardiffuniweb.eploy.net/vacancies/52...
Lecturer in Politics - Teaching and Research in Law Building | Internal & External Website
View details and apply for this Lecturer in Politics - Teaching and Research vacancy in Law Building. Lecturer in Politics - Teaching & Research School of Law and Politics The School of Law a...
cardiffuniweb.eploy.net
When we fret about the effect of new technologies on how we learn, it’s worth remembering that similar concerns have accompanied ~ every new technology *including writing*
It's fascinating how our baseline expectations shift in response to party system fragmentation. My immediate response to seeing this was "this is an amazing result for Labour". But they're on *28%*. Even in the dying days of Gordon Brown Labour was comfortably in the mid-30s.
Luke Tryl@luketryl.bsky.social · last wk.Our latest voting intention sees cross over. Labour move ahead by 4. Their first lead since March 2025 & highest share since Nov 24 🌹 LAB 28% (+4) ⏩ REF 24% (-2) 🌳 CON 22% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 12% (+1) 🟢 GREEN 8% (-3) 🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 2061| Dates 24-27/7| Change w 22/7
Well we couldn't possibly allow a situation that might upset the ghost of *checks notes* Joseph Stalin
ChrisO_wiki@chriso-wiki.bsky.social · last wk.6/ "Stalin gave these lands to Ukraine. But he gave them within the framework of a single state [i.e. the USSR]. Apparently, it never occurred to him that a situation like today could arise."
🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 26 July 2026 24% ➡️ Reform 23% 🌹 Labour 21% 🌳 Conservative 12% 🍃 Green 11% 🐥 Lib Dem 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP
