that feeling when you turn in an A rate peer review knowing you’re going to see that paper published _sans comment_ in another journal soon regardless

So It Was All For Nothing Kyle

ALT: So It Was All For Nothing Kyle

static.klipy.com

Not naming names!

The @houstonchronicle.com editorial board follows up with a family we covered as part of the Pulitzer Prize winning series on dangerous railroad crossings: First, he lost his brother. Now ICE wants to take his dad. How much hardship is enough? www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/edit...

First he lost his brother. Now ICE wants his dad. How much hardship is enough?

"Me, mamá and papá," that's been Marco's world since his brother Sergio was killed. Now, his father may be the latest casualty in the country's mass deportation campaign, writes the editorial...

houstonchronicle.com

They promised us that VAR would be used to fix blatant mistakes (hand of God, ball over the line, clear dives earning penalties, etc). Now, we stop every game for minutes at a time to "fix" an arbitrary set of minor mistakes. All goal celebrations are now provisional. For this???

Lots of implications for IDF curves / precip frequency methods (paper coming very soon!!) but above all it's important to communicate to end users that neither a <<100 year historical record nor downscaled GCMs does a good job constraining the upper tail of precip hazard!

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 2mo ago

‼️ DOUBLED 1000-YR THRESHOLD There was a remarkable record shattered today near Sandusky, Ohio. 17” of rain in one day! The old state record is 10.75” The 1-in-1000 year threshold is only 8.41” in this spot. So this wasn’t just a 1-in-1000 year type event. It was basically impossible, until now!

Good news: We can tell you how much the globe will warm if we continue to burn fossil fuels and emit CO₂ at an alarming rate. Bad news: We’re terrible at telling you how bad the impacts will be, and they’re consistently worse than we predicted.

Closing editorial for the Focus Collection on "Climate Change Informed Catastrophe Models" with @climate-done.bsky.social @kellyhereid.bsky.social and Chia-Ying Lee is out now and open access in @iopp-environment.bsky.social iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Advances in understanding and managing catastrophic risk in a changing climate

Advances in understanding and managing catastrophic risk in a changing climate, Moore, Frances C, Done, James M, Hereid, Kelly, Lee, Chia-Ying

iopscience.iop.org

Adelante #Albirroja!!! Por mas que este mundial es y ha sido una verguenza.... ñamee korasô mbarete vamos muchachos

What the hell www.newyorker.com/culture/prog...

And to me this applies, again, more to the low end of the spectrum than to the high one. Ppl will read “very low” scenarios with lots of CDR as implications of need for it directly and plausibility of those scales (“the IPCC says we need this much CDR”) rather than as “we wanted such a scenario”…

As a point of comparison, the US spent $21 billion in FY 2022 to feed billions of breakfasts and lunches to kids in schools across our whole country for an entire year under the universal school meals program that was later discontinued.

Seung Min Kim@seungminkim1.bsky.social · 6mo ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — Pentagon tells Congress the first week of the Iran war cost the US $11.3 billion, an AP source says.

Kidnapping visa-holding graduate students (from buildings many friends lived in!) for what? To ensure America becomes a less free country? To discourage the smartest people in the world from dreaming of coming here? To make our universities less innovative?

The New York Times@nytimes.com · 7mo ago

Breaking News: Immigration agents arrested a Columbia University student after misrepresenting themselves to access a building, the school said. nyti.ms/4u2Z0xw

Grazalema, Spain, received over 2,000 mm (78 inches) of rain in just the last 20 days. Over a year’s worth of rain — and it’s only early February. This is hydrologically absurd.

man the problem with trying to explain to people why address level flood scores are so fraught is that i feel like i get backed into a corner where i have to start with like well what is knowledge really

Scott 🥐🐟📈🦆🏈@fishecon.bsky.social · 8mo ago

🎁🔗 www.wsj.com/real-estate/...

Featuring a quote from @jdossgollin.bsky.social! As Adam notes, the core problem is these scores cannot be validated (in the strictest sense) for future use, because there are too many assumptions about future changes. We need to be transparent about these and look across a range of projections.

Adam Pollack@crispapoll.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Companies projecting property climate risks don't agree on future, let alone historical risks. Limited (or fundamentally unavailable) validation data, different defensible assumptions, etc., This is exactly the kind of problem we offer a vision to overcome here: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Tools that help savvy companies who hire scientists like @kellyhereid.bsky.social use, in conjunction with lots of other information, to answer specific questions are not intrinsically useful for ordinary people making the biggest financial decision of their lives

Kelly Hereid@kellyhereid.bsky.social · 8mo ago

My best advice is to use tools like this not at address level, but to browse around the neighborhood you're considering. None are going to give the same answer all the time, which @jdossgollin.bsky.social very correctly points out in article. But familiarizing yourself w local hot spots helps.

I am calling for a complete and total shutdown of daycare germs until somebody can figure out what the hell is going on (while I still have some backup care days left for 2026)

Climate risk science's greatest project successes have come in part due to transparency and reusability. We show that at the paper-level, there is plenty of room for growth. We talk about why this matters, what researchers can do, and how the greatest progress requires institutional support

Madison Condon@madisoncondon.bsky.social · 8mo ago

🚨 Publication alert! Very happy to see our paper "Unlocking the benefits of transparent and reusable science for climate risk management" out in PNAS today. With @crispapoll.bsky.social @jdossgollin.bsky.social @bobkopp.net and many others. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

This paper began as a manifesto but (largely thank to @crispapoll.bsky.social's hard work) evolved into an empirically grounded, thoughtful, and nuanced analysis of why transparency is *especially* critical for #climate #climaterisk research and how current standards fall short

Madison Condon@madisoncondon.bsky.social · 8mo ago

🚨 Publication alert! Very happy to see our paper "Unlocking the benefits of transparent and reusable science for climate risk management" out in PNAS today. With @crispapoll.bsky.social @jdossgollin.bsky.social @bobkopp.net and many others. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Sorry editors -- I got about a billion invitations to review this week and had to decline most of them. Prioritizing (1) society journals, (2) open access journals, and (3) journals I have recently submitted to, down-weighted if I have more recently reviewed there.

All emails should cost $0.01. An email to all 20,000 people on campus should cost 200 bucks -- enough that you have to accept accountability and justify your choice, not so much that important stuff is blocked

Kelly's point is why I think the merits of Zillow removing climate risk scores (www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...) is fairly nuanced. To make it clear: Zillow clearly did not do this for the right reasons, and the realty and developer lobbies have long been opponents of better climate information.

Zillow Removes Climate Risk Scores From Home Listings

nytimes.com

Kelly Hereid@kellyhereid.bsky.social · 10mo ago

A reminder, in light of that NYT story today, about skill and spread across climate analytics providers: Getting good climate info in the hands of individuals would be highly valuable. Just not convinced we're actually there yet.

My favorite thing about Thanksgiving week is that all the companies who’s crap I need to unsubscribe from hopefully send me multiple reminders

Our free and open source software for estimating property level flood risk under uncertainty now has a peer reviewed software paper! We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe @jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social

Journal of Open Source Software@joss-openjournals.bsky.social · 10mo ago

Just published in JOSS: 'UNSAFE: An UNcertain Structure And Fragility Ensemble framework for property-level flood risk estimation' https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.07527

On Wed, Dec 10 I am offering a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian regression modeling, with exercises in both RStan and PyStan, at a steep discount in an effort to raise funds for World Central Kitchen and United Farm Workers. For registration details see betanalpha.github.io/courses/.

Courses

betanalpha.github.io

There seems to be very little coverage, but Hurricane Melissa is about to do terrible damage to millions of people. gdacs.org/report.aspx?...

Climate risk models require DEEP expertise to use well. It is easier every day to download some black-box risk estimate for your house/community/portfolio. However, the common mindset of "some data is better than no data" can lead to trouble!

Kelly Hereid@kellyhereid.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Absolutely fantastic study comparing anonymized outputs of climate analytics models. Everyone loves to bag on flood (rightly so), but can we talk about how the spread here is "30mph breeze to Cat 5 hurricane" www.fca.org.uk/publication/... HT @ruarirhodes.bsky.social

Thanks to everyone who is out (on behalf of all of us knocked out by daycare germs) to demand and defend accountability, transparency, democracy, and the very concept of morality.

I literally only use this app to grumble

I knew having kids would change my life, but I wasn’t ready for Spotify to pack my recommendations with 98% white noise and nature sounds