Jason P. Casellas

@jpcasellas.bsky.social

Professor and Chair @houstonpolsci.bsky.social‬; American Legislative politics, co-author of Governing Texas, RP & *-≠-endorsement

Today Strength In Numbers published an open-source estimate of candidate quality in U.S. House elections. We estimate a traditional WAR number using a predictive model with effects for legislators, and introduce a new metric, WARP, which captures probabilities: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/and-the-mo...

The U.S. House candidates who moved the needle in 2024

Announcing our new measure of candidate quality, the Wins Above Replacement Probability (WARP)

gelliottmorris.com

The European Political Science Society is now accepting paper & panel proposals for its annual conference! 📢 Call for Papers: EPSS 2026 – Belfast
 🗓️ June 18–20, 2026
 📍 ICC Belfast
 📬 Deadline: Nov 7, 2025 🧵

Last call to submit APSA committee nominations! 📢 Self-nominations are welcome! If you or your colleagues are looking for a meaningful way to contribute and expand your network, nominate yourself or others to serve on APSA committees now! 📧 Submit to: Nominations@apsanet.org buff.ly/6DWfIb9