Jens Wäckerle

@jwaeckerle.bsky.social

Post-doctoral researcher at the Cologne Center for Comparative Politics (University of Cologne) https://www.jenswaeckerle.com/

Today, the European Parliament voted to put the Mercosur trade agreement to the European Court of Justice for review. It was a politically momentous decision, very tight and carried by an unusual majority, so it is worth looking a bit deeper into it.

HowTheyVote.eu@howtheyvote.eu · 7mo ago

This just in: The #EP requests judicial review by the ECJ on the Mercosur Trade Deal with an ultra-thin majority of 10 votes. More in-depth analysis will follow, but the majority was formed in probably the wildest way yet - relevant shares of votes from all groups. howtheyvote.eu/votes/183884

Today’s Omnibus vote has rolled over an already perforated cordon sanitaire in the European Parliament. For the first time, the EPP sided with far-right groups on a file key to the Commission’s agenda. Make no mistake: this was no accident and it’s unclear whether the centrist coalition can recover🧵

Blog post: github.com/sophieehill/... TL;DR: There are a LOT of errors/inconsistencies in the results reported in this paper (estimates outside CIs, sign errors, duplicates, asymmetric CIs). Even in the abstract itself! This suggests manual editing of results tables. Which is not good... 🧵

Summary
Unfortunately, this example is not an isolated issue.

Across 9 appendix tables with 256 regression coefficients, I find:

5 cases of estimates outside their reported confidence interval
46 duplicates (i.e. estimate/CI combinations with an identical match in the same table)
At least 20 cases of asymmetric confidence intervals, which cannot be explained as rounding errors
17 values rounded to 4 decimal places (all others to 3 decimal places), indicating manual editing of tables
Over 50% of all estimates and confidence intervals are multiples of 0.008
It is difficult to diagnose exactly what is going on without access to the underlying data and code.

However, two broad conclusions can be drawn:

There are many errors and inconsistencies in the results which appear to be the result of manual editing.
There are strange patterns in the results which, if genuine, should have been noted and explained by the authors.
Sophie E. Hill@sophieehill.bsky.social · 11mo ago

"Sweeteners can harm cognitive health equivalent to 1.6 years of ageing, study finds" Or does it? Let's take a look at this "study"... www.theguardian.com/food/2025/se...

EPSA have announced that they will hold a conference in July 2026. 😵‍💫 We understand that there might be some confusion about EPSS and EPSA. 👉🏽 So we thought we would clarify some things. A short 🧵

It tells us so much about the debate around immigration that the first response by journalists and politicians here is not: does this mean they are over- or underrepresented? This bias and ignorance used to be limited to the most lurid and hateful parts of the media. It is now a standard response.

Ben Ansell@benansell.bsky.social · last yr.

Others have noted that this means foreign-born people are LESS likely than UK-born people to be in prison. What I want to note is that The Times is now referring to foreign-born UK citizens as ‘foreigners’. This includes Boris Johnson, Sir Mo Farah, Emma Watson, Rory Stewart and little old me.

If you are interested in how to design survey experiments in the social sciences, I am teaching a course on exactly that @methodsnet.bsky.social Vienna summer school at CEU! Early bird discount applies through 26 March 👇. Looking forward to meeting you ☺️ methodsnet.org/course/d01-0...

D01-01AM: Designing Survey Experiments – Methodsnet

Not a Member yet? Check out the long list of benefits here – Student Membership from only €33.00 and FREE for some locations! > Courses > D01-01AM: Design

methodsnet.org

Romania has started voting in a Presidential Election, which has flown largely under the international media radar, despite the country’s strategic importance to the EU/NATO & a real possibility that RO could elect either its first pro Russian far right president or its first woman President.(1)