I have read this Response to my Comment and have written a Rejoinder, showing three things: 1. The multiverse is many correlated tests. 2. The randomization inference is wrong. 3. The trichotomous moderator reaffirms my point. I also enumerate 7 misleading claims, now in print in the APSR.

Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR@cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · last wk.

#OpenAccess from @apsrjournal.bsky.social - Still Instrumentally Inclusive - https://cup.org/4bhrhsp "Do individuals in Western democracies shift their views on LGBT+ inclusion when exposed to opposition from Muslim out-groups?" - @turnbulldugarte.com & @bertous.bsky.social #FirstView

🔔🔔 Russian polls have shown ~75% support for the war in Ukraine since February 2022, essentially flat. New working paper with Kirill Chmel and @nikitasavin.bsky.social shows that number is stable partly because it stopped measuring what people actually think. 🧵 ssrn.com/abstract=711...

I don’t read Spanish but I won’t let that get in the way of reposting Central Asian dumpling content. 😋

Seth Trueger@mdaware.org · last wk.

I’m also a big fan of Mongol history* *various dumplings

We have an open call for a postdoc interested in causal effects of Voting Advice Applications on political behaviour (deadline Aug 20): www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...

Postdoctoral Fellow in Political Science (304454) | NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology

Job title: Postdoctoral Fellow in Political Science (304454), Employer: NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Deadline: Thursday, August 20, 2026

jobbnorge.no

You know what's worse than competitive authoritarianism? Plain old authoritarianism

AN ACADEMIC JOB! We are hiring for the Wilson E. Schmidt Distinguished Professorship at the Johns Hopkins SAIS campus in Bologna. We are especially interested in those working on international affairs and technology but open to other topics as well. The main downside is having me across the hall.

Some comparisons between today's tech sector and industrial SEOs in command economies under state socialism practically offer themselves: • bureaucratic targets with questionable economic value [see here] • soft budget constraint [see Kornai] • legitimization by value for the power of the state

Prof Mike Yearworth@mikeyearworth.bsky.social · 3w ago

“Please don’t use AI just for the sake of using AI,” Amazon senior vice-president Dave Treadwell told staff.” www.ft.com/content/cc03...

Fantastic conference on “The Soviet Legacy” at UCLouvain next January. Cfp here: www.uclouvain.be/en/research-...

Several years of data collection, 2 editorial teams and a few rounds of R&R were all well worth it to finally see this paper in print. Thanks to all the survey teams and the many experts who helped make this possible. doi.org/10.1086/736578

The V-Party Dataset has a measure of anti-pluralism, also known as illiberalism, based on Linz (1978) and Levitsky and Ziblatt (2018). We found governing-party anti-pluralist rhetoric to be more informative of subsequent de-democratization than its populism: doi.org/10.1177/1354... 1/2

Cyrus Samii@cdsamii.bsky.social · 4w ago

Brilliant analysis. “Moving from polarization to radicalization shifts the remedy from compromise, encouraging civility, and bridging divides to confronting antidemocratic actors, safeguarding targeted groups, and defending institutional integrity.” (I’d toss “populism” onto the trash pile too.)

In the northern hemisphere, it’s time for a summer break. 🌞 Why not use the well-earned rest to catch up with your democracy reading list? Here are some tips of recent publications from the V-Dem community. Links to the latest books, policy briefs and journal articles in the thread 🧵👇 1(4)

If you're in Astana on Thursday, I'll be presenting some of my ongoing research at NU!

If you're in Astana on Thursday, I'll be presenting some of my ongoing research at NU!

I have a new version of my latent variable modeling/idealstan draft online👇 Even if you're not into the idealstan type of latent variable model, I think this is the most complete discussion of time series dynamics with measurement/latent variables. So perhaps worth a read! osf.io/preprints/os...

1 of Putin’s closest allies for decades has been another Leningrad KGB guy, Nikolay Patrushev. Russian political analyst Andrei Kolesnikov once described him as “the one allowed to explain and clarify Putin’s thoughts.” Interview with him yesterday in official state paper. Short 🧵w/ quotes. 1/6

How many Iranians support the Islamic Republic? In a new working paper, we answer this using a nationally representative survey of 2,000 adults in Iran—and the list experiment, a method for measuring sensitive attitudes.

First #WorldCup game today. Democrats should be supporting South Africa against Mexico (if you like V-Dem's measure of electoral democracy) (1/n)

Congrats to Natalia Otrishchenko, Artem Kharchenko, and Valentyna Shevchenko, for winning the AAUS best article prize for their article “Ukrainian Researchers in a War Documentation Project: Intertwined Experiences and Methodologies”! (Article link in next post)

University of California Press@ucpress.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Communist and Post-Communist Studies @cpcs.bsky.social article "Ukrainian Researchers in a War Documentation Project: Intertwined Experiences and Methodologies" wins American Association for Ukrainian Studies' top article prize ukrainianstudies.org/aaus-announc...

Come work at the best Department that exists (yes, I am biased).

Department of Comparative Politics UiB@sampol.bsky.social · 2mo ago

We are hiring! Please share 👉 💡 2 PhD positions 🇳🇴 Department of Comparative Politics, University of Bergen 🗓️ 4 years 💶 Fully funded 👩‍🏫 25 % teaching ⏳ 11 August 2026 🔗 www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...

📑❗️Our article with @grigopop.bsky.social and Graeme Robertson on the effects of Ukraine’s decentralization reform on satisfaction with public services (and democracy) in Ukraine 🇺🇦 was just published in Comparative Political Studies! doi.org/10.1177/0010...

We are hiring! Please share 👉 💡 2 PhD positions 🇳🇴 Department of Comparative Politics, University of Bergen 🗓️ 4 years 💶 Fully funded 👩‍🏫 25 % teaching ⏳ 11 August 2026 🔗 www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...

Excited to announce that my paper "Socioeconomic development and the uneven legacies of authoritarian repression" has been published at the Journal of Historical Political Economy. This grew out of my second year ("591") PhD paper. www.emerald.com/jhpe/article...

New book on democracy. #OpenAccess Seven Myths about Democracy by Jørgen Møller & Svend-Erik Skaaning, Routledge taylorfrancis.com/books/oa-mon.... Challenges (full or partial) misunderstandings about the meaning, trajectory, causes, and consequences of democracy.

Seven Myths about Democracy | Jørgen Møller, Svend-Erik Skaaning | Tay

This timely book challenges seven widespread misconceptions about democracy that continue to shape public and academic debates about its past, present, and

taylorfrancis.com

New open-access window (2 weeks): Erica Marat & Aizada Arystanbek, Decolonial Disruptions in Central Asia (CUP Elements series Politics and Society from Central Europe to Central Asia). Download: www.cambridge.org/core/element... #CentralAsia #DecolonialStudies #MemoryPolitics

Decolonial Disruptions in Central Asia

Cambridge Core - Comparative Politics - Decolonial Disruptions in Central Asia

cambridge.org

Either arXiv’s new policy on LLM-generated text changes nothing, or you should be asking yourself some hard questions about work with your human coauthors.

On arXiv, LLMs, and What It Means to Put Your Name on a Paper

All you have is your name.

scottgehlbach.bearblog.dev

Ok, as we are waiting for crunch time, I’m sure you absolutely want to see this rocket political science plot: The trend is clear, even if noisy: countries with higher liberal democracy scores also tend to perform better at #Eurovision #esc2026 (data: @vdeminstitute.bsky.social)

🚨New Bright Line Watch report on the rule of law in the US - joint w/@rickhasen.bsky.social's Strengthening Democracy Project at UCLA Law The most comprehensive expert survey to date - 21 federal judges, 113 elite lawyers, and 193 law profs brightlinewatch.org/erosion-of-t... 🧵 on findings below ⬇️

Happy to share that my #rstats package for IRT/ideal point models, idealstan, is back on CRAN as v1.0! idealstan supports mixed outcomes, missing data, and time-varying methods (splines, AR(1), etc)--and latent regression \w new latent marginal effects. 😎 cran.r-project.org/web/packages...

idealstan: Robust Measurement with 'Stan'

Offers item-response theory (IRT) ideal-point measurement modeling for diverse distributions, missing data, and over-time variation. Full and approximate Bayesian sampling with 'Stan' (&lt;<a href="ht...

cran.r-project.org

Very excited to be giving this talk on @vdeminstitute.bsky.social methodology on Tuesday, May 12, in Ulaanbaatar - it should be a great conversation! And thanks to @mongoliafocus.bsky.social for the great discussion (and contacts) that led to it! mongoliafocus.com/2026/03/demo...

It's a good example of how the V-Dem MM deals with experts with varying reliability and different levels of DIF - since the expert diverged substantially from the other experts their contribution to the overall estimate was substantially downweighted. doi.org/10.1017/pan....