Robert (Bob) Kubinec
@rmkubinec.bsky.social
Political scientist @ Texas A&M Bush School of Government. Interests: business politics/corruption, Middle East, measurement, Bayesian statistics The Bayesian Hitman: https://a.co/d/e4QmtKo Website: www.robertkubinec.com
Don't posit a theory that is only interesting because it implies X causes variation in Y, test for a statistical relationship between X and Y, but then say you are not interpreting causally. Of course you are interpreting it causally. That was the whole point of what you just did.
We're experiencing loneliness epidemic. Could AI chatbots help solve that problem? If you would have asked me up until recently I would say "probably!". But we don't know for sure. To answer this question, researchers in France recently ran a very cool experiment...
It is time for new adventures--this summer my family and I moved to College Station, Texas where I am now an associate professor of political science in the Bush School of Government & Public Service. We will miss many friends in South Carolina, but I am also excited for new opportunities at A&M.
Specifically, smallpox was eradicated after someone reported a regression table where the SMALLPOXV1 variable had a negative coefficient and p<0.001.
Saloni@scientificdiscovery.dev · yesterdayme right now
Cornyn and Tillis' decision on Blanche is a dereliction of duty... but I'm not so sure it's bad for the democratic opposition. To stay in power, autocrats should wield corruption as a tool--reward allies. But this IRS deal does little for anyone but Trump & is a new vulnerability for the midterms.
Replicate everything? Interested in thoughts on this idea: shiny2.wzb.eu/ipi/replicate/ At @wzb.bsky.social we've been developing a protocol for replication files for empirical papers to: ✅be readable by machines ✅keep humans in the loop
I don't think that there's nothing for Cornyn and Tillis to lose; I think there's a lot of lucrative consulting opportunities with conservative orgs that they wouldn't want to give up post-retirement. Principle is expensive.
Jack Hopkins-The Original@therealjackhopkins.bsky.social · 2d agoCornyn lost his primary. Tillis is walking. Neither has a donor, a term, or a future to protect. Both caved before lunch Monday. www.JackHopkinsNow.com
Someone should tell him to ask Claude about the "principal agent problem"
Max P III@blackballer.bsky.social · 2d agoIts embarrassing how many grown ass adults live in these fantasies where people work for some nonsense like the artificial cultures oligarchs manufacture over survival.
I have read this Response to my Comment and have written a Rejoinder, showing three things: 1. The multiverse is many correlated tests. 2. The randomization inference is wrong. 3. The trichotomous moderator reaffirms my point. I also enumerate 7 misleading claims, now in print in the APSR.
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR@cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · last wk.#OpenAccess from @apsrjournal.bsky.social - Still Instrumentally Inclusive - https://cup.org/4bhrhsp "Do individuals in Western democracies shift their views on LGBT+ inclusion when exposed to opposition from Muslim out-groups?" - @turnbulldugarte.com & @bertous.bsky.social #FirstView
Guy who hates AIPAC because they assume it's AI PAC
This is such a bizarre article. I mean, I enjoy having a beer with other people. But obviously society can survive without it. The majority of people living in Arab & Muslim societies do not drink and they do just fine building relationships. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/01/s...
What Else Do We Lose When People Give Up Booze? (Gift Article)
Yes, there are many benefits of cutting back. But bars are closing. Jobs are going away. And a way of being together can feel harder to find.
nytimes.com
And let's not even talk about trying to meet the Kafka-esque formatting requirements for submitting to a top journal
Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 4d agoPeople potentially subject to the nyc pied-à-terre tax are being treated with 1% of the administrative hostility of SNAP and Medicaid applicants, and they’re throwing 100x the fit
Just finished Matt Parker’s “Humble Pi: A comedy of maths errors” which indeed turned out quite funny (albeit sometimes tragic, as bad math occasionally kills). Covers lots of fun errors: date issues, mixed up units, database errors, random numbers…
Next big thing for Leaflet: helping creators monetize! 💸 First step = paid memberships for your publications Next, exploring other things like one-off payments — tell us what you need! Almost ready & we'd love to find some early partners, please fill out the linked form if you're interested!
Piloting paid memberships for the open social web!
Lab Notes 035: building monetization features for Leaflet creators, starting with paid memberships — tell us if you'd like to be the first to try, and what else you need!
lab.leaflet.pub
This is my policy for AI-generated writing. 👇 AI prose adds nothing to my understanding. I have no interest in engaging with it in any form.
Wow. According to @gelliottmorris.com poll tracker, 61% of Americans disapprove of Donald Trump. 👇 Per NYT, engagement with right-wing content creators is also way down this year. 👇 A possibility is open to reset US politics--but the opposition needs to seize the chance. It won't "just happen."
Want to write a paper together introducing the new ODD (odd differences delta)? Title: Isn't that ODD? Bridging the gap between odds ratios and risk differences.
Yet another way that modern scientific publishing violates Bayesian inference axioms (i.e. evidentiary value must always be interpreted relative to the prior).
Nick Huntington-Klein@nickchk.com · 6d agoOne of my empirical-work econ takes is that I think academia should be *more* open to publishing work based on best-we-can-do weak data, as long as there's really no other way to address the question and that work is very clear about what it can and can't actually say.
One of my empirical-work econ takes is that I think academia should be *more* open to publishing work based on best-we-can-do weak data, as long as there's really no other way to address the question and that work is very clear about what it can and can't actually say.
Why doesn't anyone score from right in front of the posts? 🤔
Sam Tighe@stighefootball.bsky.social · 6d agoSo good
And while I'm at this, let's talk about all the reasons why Mamdani's grocery store plan is not the best idea: 1) it consumes a *lot* of resources building stores that could go directly to people who need $$ for food via SNAP 2) competes with private grocery stores 3) requires land/buildings
Robert (Bob) Kubinec@rmkubinec.bsky.social · 6d agoThis has to be the *least* popular post I've written on Bluesky 😅. Guys, you don't just hold the "bad" politicians accountable but also the "good" ones. Just because you have the right intentions doesn't mean you'll end up with the right policies. Critique and debate is how we get better.
This has to be the *least* popular post I've written on Bluesky 😅. Guys, you don't just hold the "bad" politicians accountable but also the "good" ones. Just because you have the right intentions doesn't mean you'll end up with the right policies. Critique and debate is how we get better.
Robert (Bob) Kubinec@rmkubinec.bsky.social · 7d agoWhy do politicians like building stores? It's much more effective to fund a program like SNAP--then people get to choose where they buy groceries (and no need to live near a Mamdani store). Physical stores give the politician much greater name recognition *and* a source of control and patronage.
“It’s worth pondering whether the decision to so loyally support a man like Trump is worth actively repelling millions upon millions of Americans from church,” our columnist David French writes.
Opinion | Gen Z Thinks Religion Got Too Political
I wonder why that could be.
nyti.ms
Now on FirstView ft. @ryanweldzius.bsky.social: We explore how the green transition, geopolitical shifts, and US protectionism could reshape dollar–RMB dynamics, driving a more fragmented and multipolar currency order. #polisky Check it out: doi.org/10.1017/S104...
President Trump used the unilateral powers of the presidency in extraordinary ways during the first 100 days of his second term. Read more here, now on FirstView: doi.org/10.1017/S104... #polisky
Me: I can't do focused work because there are so many distractions during the semester between students, faculty, admin, and conferences. Me during the summer: Oh my gosh it is too quiet, no way I can focus on anything now!
