81 years ago today, on August 9, 1945, an atomic bomb was dropped upon the city of Nagasaki, Japan, by the United States. This was 3 days after the first atomic attack on Hiroshima.

Does a favorable nuclear balance of power strengthen extended deterrence? My new JPR paper tests this claim and finds no strong evidence for it. doi.org/10.1093/jopr... A 🧵..

Nuclear balance and extended deterrence: evidence from cold war superpower alliances

Abstract. Does a favorable nuclear balance of power strengthen the credibility of extended deterrence against nuclear-armed opponents? This “superiority-cr

doi.org

The New START treaty doesn't expire until February 5. Stationing Oreshnik in Belarus prior to it's expiration is one last violation of the treaty. 🧵

1. Crises, acquisitions, and policy all suggest that conventional weapons are taking on a larger role deterring nuclear use. My new article in @intsecurity.bsky.social examines why US officials would consider conventional options when they have nuclear options available and how they might use them.

🚨 New article out in @jeppjournal.bsky.social with @svenhegewald.bsky.social “The changing geography of support for European integration in the shadow of the Ukraine war." How did Russia’s invasion reshape public support for EU policies? www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Fantastic resource for historians: a spreadsheet of NARA's digitized microfilm, with links to the files in the Archives catalog. May it help you as much as it has helped me. www.archives.gov/files/colleg...

Thrilled to share my new EJIR article on what reassures U.S. allies in crises. It’s Open Access: doi.org/10.1177/1354... A short thread 🧵

Reassuring allies in times of crisis: assessing the effectiveness of tools for alliance reassurance in crises - Kyungwon Suh, 2025

What military and diplomatic instruments are effective for the United States to reassure its allies that their security will be protected as promised? Despite i...

doi.org

Good piece by Richard Nephew, on why the destruction of Fordow isn't likely to be a silver bullet thebulletin.org/2025/06/the-...

The United States may destroy the Fordow enrichment plant. It won’t make the Iranian nuclear threat go away

If Israel decides to continue down the military path against Iran’s nuclear program, it has no choice but to ensure that the Fordow enrichment plant no longer poses a threat.

thebulletin.org

Interested in how major geopolitical shifts shape the dynamics of state birth? Check out our new article on great power shocks and global patterns of secessionist movements (with Ryan Griffiths and @seva.bsky.social). Link: doi.org/10.1080/0305... A short thread 🧵

Hegemonic shocks and patterns of secession

Studies of secession typically focus on domestic factors that produce independence movements, such as the role of ethnic divides or the concentration of material resources. But motivations for sece...

doi.org

Also for teacher.. I have a student essay where a footnote claims that a 1983 AJPS article used rare event logit estimator (!)

Bill Hayton@billhayton.bsky.social · last yr.

A cautionary tale for academic journal editors. Every single one of these very convincing-looking references is fake. Thanks AI for making us all more suspicious of each other and raising the barriers to publication...

NEW - Anti-Asian Hate Crimes and American Reputation - cup.org/43cUf7F "findings underscore the global significance of addressing hate crimes in the USA for the country’s reputation and soft power" -Joonseok Yang, @sungeunkim.bsky.social, @jongheepark.bsky.social & @inbok.bsky.social #OpenAccess

Short thread (hopefully in plain English) on the nuclear deterrence dynamics in the India-Pakistan relationship and where this goes if escalation continues. <1>

If the WW2 Vday for the US is May 8, then who won the Pacific War? Did I miss something?

📽️Are your favourite characters from Disney, Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, & Star Wars left-wing or right-wing? 🤔 ➡️ @turnbulldugarte.com & @markuswagner.bsky.social explore how we project political identities onto heroes & villains www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

BREAKING: The Trump administration is considering to give up the role of NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe - a role that began with then-World War II hero and future president Dwight D. Eisenhower.

Trump admin considers giving up NATO command that has been American since Eisenhower

The move is being discussed as part of a possible restructuring of combatant commands that would help the Defense Department cut costs.

nbcnews.to

There are indeed competing arguments on the capability requirement for credible extended nuclear deterrence. As for empirical research, I have not seen a poli sci publication that demonstrates that quant/qual nuclear balance has any impact on the credibility of extended nuclear deterrence.

Many US allies in Asia experienced this with China when it comes to econ relationship. Now they will see the US following the same approach, and you still want to secure allied support to contain China. Good luck!

Andrew Kurjata@akurjata.ca · 2y ago

'Just say thank you': Lutnick says Canada is acting like Ukraine nationalpost.com/news/canada/...

With all the paperwork finalized, I am thrilled to announce that I’ve been awarded the Stanton Foundation’s Nuclear Security Grant to support my research on US arms control diplomacy and allies’ perceptions of extended deterrence credibility.

A good thread--could see some interrsting connections with ROK

Carrie A Lee@carriealee.bsky.social · 2y ago

Ok, let’s have a conversation about the true cost of the AVF, which it appears Elon and Vivek are just now discovering. But also why it’s the best system we have and why advocates for a return to the draft are fundamentally unserious. Buckle up for a fun #civmilsky thread 1/

🚨New First View Article🚨 "‘How to entrap your protector: Reassessing entrapment in light of the Crimean War crisis" by Tudor Onea is now available online first view! 📜➡️ buff.ly/3OsfhbG

Not only strategically incoherent and immoral, this also demonstrates the core lack of character, courage and intelligence behind such thinking. www.reuters.com/world/trump-...

Exclusive: Trump adviser proposes new tiered system for NATO members who don't pay up

A leading national security adviser to Donald Trump told Reuters on Tuesday that he would push for changes to NATO if the former president returns to power that could result in some member nations losing protection against an outside attack.

reuters.com