New post out: There's going to be a lot of talk about wealth taxes in the run up to the budget. So we asked one of the country's leading experts to give us a ten year plan for doing it right. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

The right way to tax wealth

A 10 year programme for an incoming government

open.substack.com

New post just out: "Burnham's first mistake" Splitting 14 year olds into academic and vocational paths seems intuitive. But it's a terrible idea that risks increasing inequality, and closing down options for the young people that need them most. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/b...

Burnham's first mistake

The problem with his education plan

open.substack.com

🎙️ I joined @chathamhouse.org podcast with Sir @ldfreedman.bsky.social , Ambassador Vadym Prystaiko, John Lough. We discussed President Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington, his dismissal of Defence Minister Fedorov, 🇺🇦’s ability to retain initiative, and how to pressure Russia to the negotiating table👇

“Sovereign deep strike has granted Ukraine a level of recognition and agency it did not have before.” Great essay by @frhoffmann.bsky.social missilematters.substack.com/p/the-state-...

The State Makes the Missile, and the Missile Makes the State

The power to hurt: Ukraine's deep-strike campaign and the transformation of the Ukrainian state

missilematters.substack.com

A terrific article on potential Russian mobilisation later this year from @ldfreedman.bsky.social samf.substack.com/p/will-putin...

Will Putin be forced to announce another mobilisation?

Like many people trying to follow the Russo-Ukraine War I spend a lot of time staring at maps of the front line.

samf.substack.com

New post looks at whether or not Putin will move to a large-scale mobilisation. I consider the needs of the front and the extent of Russia’s recruitment crisis. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?

Will Putin be forced to announce another mobilisation?

Like many people trying to follow the Russo-Ukraine War I spend a lot of time staring at maps of the front line.

open.substack.com

This is a great read to get an understanding of how things may progress over the rest of this year.

Lawrence Freedman@ldfreedman.bsky.social · last wk.

New post looks at whether or not Putin will move to a large-scale mobilisation. I consider the needs of the front and the extent of Russia’s recruitment crisis. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?

New post looks at whether or not Putin will move to a large-scale mobilisation. I consider the needs of the front and the extent of Russia’s recruitment crisis. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?

Will Putin be forced to announce another mobilisation?

Like many people trying to follow the Russo-Ukraine War I spend a lot of time staring at maps of the front line.

open.substack.com

Daddy

Jesse Hawken@jessehawken.bsky.social · last wk.

Studio execs are going to want to adapt more poems for the big screen now

The big devolution project is now underway. Sam identifies what needs to be done if it is to succeed. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/burnhams-d...

Burnham's defining project

The five biggest challenges to making devolution work

samf.substack.com

New post out "Burnham's defining project" Number 10 North isn't a gimmick, it's the start of first serious attempt to decentralise the state in England. I look at the five biggest challenges to getting it right and how best to manage them. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/b...

Burnham's defining project

The five biggest challenges to making devolution work

open.substack.com

Please share! A rare PhD studentship @kingshistory.bsky.social *fully* funded by @slaveryinwar.bsky.social to work with myself and Maeve Ryan, supported by a broader community of experts in Caribbean history, transatlantic slavery, and the history of war. www.kcl.ac.uk/study/fundin... 🗃️

AHRC Studentship: Slavery and the Seven Years’ War within and across the Caribbean Archipelago | King's College London

The Leverhulme Centre for Research on Slavery in War (CRSW) is pleased to announce the availability of a fully funded AHRC doctoral studentship, to be jointly supervised across History and War Studies

kcl.ac.uk

Comment is Freed - the substack of @ldfreedman.bsky.social and @samfr.bsky.social - is very good value. Informed, literate, historically aware and invariably stimulating.

Lawrence Freedman@ldfreedman.bsky.social · 2w ago

Latest post looks at why when war going better for Ukraine defence minister and commander-in-chief clashed, so that both replaced. I assess the potential impact of the changes, noting that rows are not unusual at the top when countries are at war. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/turmoil-at...

Latest post looks at why when war going better for Ukraine defence minister and commander-in-chief clashed, so that both replaced. I assess the potential impact of the changes, noting that rows are not unusual at the top when countries are at war. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/turmoil-at...

Turmoil at the top: what Ukraine's defence shake-up means for the war

On 15 July President Zelenskyy sacked the Minister of Defence Mykhailo Fedorov.

samf.substack.com

First post from Sam on Burnham as PM shows how his appointments and early announcements demonstrate that his operation will be very different in practice from Starmer's even while facing the same challenges. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/a-theory-o...

A theory of power

Burnham's cabinet choices and changes to No. 10

samf.substack.com

Latest post looks at the end of the ceasefire in the Iran War. Both sides seek to control the Strait of Hormuz but neither can do so. The economic risks for both are growing as long as it stays closed. (£/free trail), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?

Trump's War Won’t Go Away

Why has the fight over the Strait of Hormuz restarted? Can a permanent resolution be found?

open.substack.com

As Andy Burnham prepares for No 10 Sam considers the five big problems left over from the Starmer government. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/burnhams-i...

Burnham's Inheritance

Five of the biggest challenges facing the new prime minister

samf.substack.com

He’s lost a lot of 🇺🇸 ability to act as a brake on Ukraine’s targetting. Just as he has lost a lot of power amongst all those erstwhile 🇺🇸 “friendly” states I can’t recommend enough these @ldfreedman.bsky.social blogs on Russia’s war on Ukraine.

In his essay, @ldfreedman.bsky.social explains how the original 'arms race' was fuelled by a threat that didn't exist, and asks what that tells us about the one we think we're in now.

Latest post looks at continuing attacks on Russia’s oil refineries, why air defence has been struggling to cope, the ability of the Kremlin to adapt as well as potential economic impact. Also destruction of Russian tankers in Sea of Azov. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...?

Putin's energy crisis

The growing impact of Ukraine's attacks and whether Russia can adapt

open.substack.com

A look beyond Farage's latest by-election ploy by @samfr.bsky.social to the possibility of Farage quitting and the implications for Reform and British politics. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/farages-fo...?

Farage's Folly

Why he's in serious trouble and what happens if he quits

samf.substack.com

Latest post looks at the UK’s Defence Investment Plan in the context of the wider debates about European security and concerns about Russian provocations to try to split the alliance. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?

The Russian Threat: Now or Later?

The defence investment plan and the challenge for the UK and NATO

open.substack.com

How is it that Kemi Badenoch’s personal ratings are up while her Conservative Party still languishes in the polls? Sam explains. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/the-badeno...

The Badenoch Conundrum

Here are three things that are all true:

samf.substack.com

New post: "The Badenoch Conundrum" The Tory leader's approval ratings are up, Reform is doing worse, but the Tories have seen no improvement in their position. Are we on the verge of a Conservative comeback or is she taking the party off a cliff? (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

The Badenoch Conundrum

Here are three things that are all true:

open.substack.com

Excellent overview of where we are on the war. Agree with every point, including re Istanbul and Anchorage.

Lawrence Freedman@ldfreedman.bsky.social · last mo.

Latest post covers the continuing pressure on Crimea and fuel shortages in Russia, Moscow’s anxiety about Trump tilting away from them and back to Kyiv, and Putin’s determination to insist all is well and that his forces are on the advance. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...?

Latest post covers the continuing pressure on Crimea and fuel shortages in Russia, Moscow’s anxiety about Trump tilting away from them and back to Kyiv, and Putin’s determination to insist all is well and that his forces are on the advance. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...?

How do you solve a problem like Crimea?

The big story in the Russo-Ukraine War remains the siege of Crimea.

open.substack.com

Latest post covers the continuing pressure on Crimea and fuel shortages in Russia, Moscow’s anxiety about Trump tilting away from them and back to Kyiv, and Putin’s determination to insist all is well and that his forces are on the advance. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...?

How do you solve a problem like Crimea?

The big story in the Russo-Ukraine War remains the siege of Crimea.

open.substack.com

New post out: "Burnham's policy agenda" What we know about what he wants to do on the economy, political reform and public services. And whether it can work given all the fiscal and political constraints. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/b...

Burnham's policy agenda

What we know about what he wants to do

open.substack.com

It was a privilege to talk to Andrey Kurkov, Ukraine’s greatest living novelist. His book, three Years on Fire, has been short-listed for the Orwell Political Writing Book Prize. We spoke about the state of the war and the issues facing Ukraine. (This is free). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?

"There is no despair and there is no optimism"

An interview with Andrey Kurkov

open.substack.com

Waiting for the demand for ‘Peace, Land, Bread.’

General Boles@generalboles.bsky.social · last mo.

ANDY BURNHAM HAS RETURNED FROM EXILE