LHaden

@lhaden-climate.bsky.social

Electrical/Software Engineer @ Sandia National Labs

The rise in Niño 3.4 region sea surface temperatures over the past few weeks has been nothing short of astonishing. We are now hotter than any days during the 1997/1998 super El Niño event, and we are still many months from the peak.

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I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.

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This is a clear example of a compound hazard event (i.e., amplified societal impacts). Severe thunderstorms knocked out power for nearly 250,000 people last night, and many are now seeing near-record heat today while still without electricity. Orange: heat advisories Pink: excessive heat warnings

Map of current NWS warnings and advisories on July 4, 2026 for the MidAtlantic. Map from WeatherFront.Current MidAtlantic region power outages on July 4, 2026. Map from https://poweroutage.us/area/regions/mid-atlantic.

Breaking News! Code Yikes! The June Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly came in at 1.59°C above the 1991-2020 baseline, so we're already in a strong El Nino. The latest CFSv2 model runs now show the Nino 3.4 SST anomaly forecast peaking at 4.10°C in November.

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Regional changes in those overnight (minimum) temperatures during the months of June and July since 1990. Most all areas are seeing warming, which is largest in the Southwest. This is particularly dangerous without access to cooling. Find more US climate change visuals: zacklabe.com/united-state...

Map of changes in June and July minimum temperatures across the contiguous United States from 1990 to 2025. Nearly all areas are seeing warming, which is largest over the Southwest. Data is from NClimGrid.