Ukraine blows up Russian data centres and immediately and mysteriously online talk about Germany’s Far Right AfD virtually disappears. Stop Putin you stop the Far Right.
Mark Norbury
@markjnorbury.bsky.social
@unltd @acevo - generally prefer hopeful liberal progress + humour over despair, division, aggro, ego
For those playing along at home: To give the appearance of action on the impacts of his humiliating blunder on the world stage, the President of the United States is making a humiliating blunder on the world stage by bailing the Russian president out of a humiliating blunder on the world stage.
Estonian PM Kristen Michal after Trump's diesel deal with Putin: “It will be worth discussing in Estonia and at the European Council next week whether we can quickly contribute more to Ukraine so they can blast Russia's oil refineries to smithereens.”
Zelenskyy approval rating: 54% Trump approval rating: 32%
Trump: “I think it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president”
When I say the politics will become increasingly obvious... I mean look at this. If you want to unite the left/centre and split the Tories, without a big spending committment there's no better option.
On the substack this week.... I looked at the route back into the EU. It's going to become increasingly obvious that the politics works for a manifesto pledge. What are the barriers? What would a negotiation look like? How might another referendum play out? samf.substack.com/p/the-route-...
If money is available for tax cuts, then they need to be targeted. Proper modelling, not vibes. And surely, given the position the UK is in, growth should be the priority.
This is a bad IHT cut. For the same money we could increase the nil rate band to £900k/person, or alternatively cut the rate from 40% to 17.5%. Either would be simpler, fairer, and not distort the housing market.
And there are other undesirable effects. The proposal could shift £60bn–£110bn from savings and investments into housing, and reduce the number of £1m-plus homes coming onto the market in London and the South East by 3%–6% each year.
Take these effects into account, and the proposal won't cost the £6bn the Tories claim. We estimate £7.7bn–£10.9bn. (full working for this on our website)
Today, selling a £1m house and moving to a £400,000 flat won’t change your children’s IHT. The estate is the same size. Under the Tory proposal, the £1m house was exempt from IHT, but the £600,000 you released is fully subject to IHT. Your house move caused £240,000 IHT.
NEW: Kemi Badenoch’s flagship party conference policy document, The Right Way, overestimated the cost of net zero by nearly £500bn, seemingly after someone accidentally double-counted figures on a spreadsheet. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Tories overstate net zero cost by nearly £500bn in apparent spreadsheet error
Exclusive: Badenoch’s flagship conference policy document cites £957bn estimate, twice the total in climate advisers’ data
theguardian.com
“If you don’t like public executions just don’t watch it” says the crowd trying to ban drag shows and books
Badenoch speech: The Tory leader is having an argument with herself and she's losing inews.co.uk/opinion/bade...
Paying taxes is punishment is it? Some might say it's a contribution to the infrastructure and regulations (like the rule of law) that enables you to build a successful business and, being less transactional, your contribution to society..
I'm furious about the two Iranians who came across as part of the surge in small boats created by my Brexit and under a Home Office run by my MPs Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick.
After the Brexit referendum in 2016, Nigel Farage predicted that the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Austria and Italy. 2016 to 2025: each country has become more pro EU 🇳🇱 Netherlands - from 72% to 81% 🇩🇰 Denmark - from 62% to 85% 🇸🇪 Sweden - from 64% to 85% 🇦🇹 Austria - 37% to 51% 🇮🇹 Italy - 33% to 52%
Avg GDP growth 1945-79: 2.8% Since then: 1.6% And this apparently "broken, economically stagnant" basket case kept its AAA status right through the Winter of Discontent We lost it under Cameron, and it fell again under May, then Johnson, and then Truss: i.e. the whole time Clarke was in govt
You either bow down to the assumption that voters’ preferences are fixed or at least exogenous. Or you decide that they’re malleable and endogenous - and so prepare to make a political argument. Better, perhaps, to risk dying on your feet than live on your knees.
On rejoining the EU Support: 55% Oppose: 34% ... but on the conditions of single currency and Schengen membership Support: 35% Oppose: 43% via YouGov, Jun 2026 britainelects.substack.com/p/is-rejoin-...
NEW: How does Burnham’s conference speech land with voters when they see it it? In short, very well it seems. A thread on some new video testing of the PM’s speech among voters by @persuasionuk.bsky.social Top line findings and some caveats below! 🧵👇
Bad news, everyone - Brexit has apparently caused the entire United Kingdom to detach from Europe and drift several thousand miles west. We are now slowly approaching Newfoundland. Can someone please let Eurostar now there might be some issues.
A country that will not fix its mistakes is a country that has given up on the future. And Brexit was, it’s now clear, a terrible, terrible mistake inews.co.uk/opinion/brex...
This is your semi-regular reminder that pensioner poverty: a) is real b) is significantly less prevalent than working-age poverty and half the rate of child poverty, and c) is such that a pensioner is statistically more likely to live in a household worth over £1 million than to live in poverty
This two tier policing is disgraceful. It's as if there is one approach for people who helpfully film themselves committing crimes and another approach when there is insufficient evidence.
Burnham's speech hasn't gone unnoticed in Brussels (where I am) Maybe Canada helped pave the way But a sense among senior officials here there's a more purposeful and political Govt in London that's willing to be clearer and more strategic about what it wants with/from EU
Outstandingly dishonest even by Nigel Farage's standards. Farage knows that the men arrested at Fairford would not have been released if they were still suspected to be terrorists. He's stirring up fear, hatred & resentment against both immigrants & the police. Pure malice.
The BBC news summary this morning went seamlessly from "critics warn PM scrapping triple lock would be electoral suicide" to "critics ask if PM has nerve to make tough decisions" and I don't think it's a particularly pro Burnham stance to suggest he might not be the entire problem here.
"There are reasons to hope the right wing populists can be pushed back. Some of that is about messaging, some of it is down to vibes. "But once you’re in government, there is something bigger than all of that: when you’re in power, you can just do things. So do them."
Memo to Burnham: this is how you beat the populists
Carney, Mamdani and Ossoff are all showing you can take on the raging right and win. But there’s one crucial lesson from them that Andy Burnham must learn
thenewworld.co.uk