This is being widely called a war crime by the BlueSky community but the apparent lack of anything like a legitimate target nearby strongly suggests that this was a guidance failure in the JDAM guided bomb. These are not long distance attack weapons, JDAM are dropped from crewed aircraft.

MeidasTouch@meidastouch.com · 4d ago

The New York Times reports the U.S. dropped a 2,000-pound bomb on a family home in Iran, killing a husband, wife, and their 2-year-old son. The paper found no indication of a nearby military target.

The low-pass itself is one thing and the fact is that they’ve been performing similar manoeuvres for years (and BA are very good at that). The actual problem is that that the F-18 clearly crossed the display line and flew out of the box. Which is strictly prohibited for a reason.

Evergreen Intel@vcdgf555.bsky.social · 4d ago

Couple thoughts on the Blue Angels cancelling the Saturday Air Show event due to high wing gusts. These fighters they use for the demo team are some of the best in the world, flown by the best in the world. They do, in fact, have reasonable limitations, particularly flying so close to one another.

FT for some reason loves to write about this every two or three months even though it’s a well known fact. Do the Western partners provide ELINT, SIGINT and IMINT (and HUMINT)? Sure, what’s surprising. Can Ukraine plan (and execute) raids independently? Yes it absolutely can and sometimes also does

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦@maks23.bsky.social · last wk.

🔥🇺🇸US and 🇫🇷France helped 🇺🇦Ukraine find weaknesses in Russian air defense for drone strikes, - FT Intelligence made it possible to map the location of air defense systems and determine the routes by which drones can bypass air defense and reach targets deep inside Russia.

Lockheed’s response to competition in the European market (the Freya system being developed by a consortium led by Fire Point) and to new US’s requirements and NATO CTs (the 2025 CTs represent a 400% increase in AMD requirements compared to 2024 and have been further increased at the Ankara summit).

UK 🇬🇧 🤝 🇺🇦 □@ukbastard.bsky.social · 2w ago

Lockheed develops a cheaper Patriot missile interceptor Lockheed Martin unveiled the PAC-3 ACE interceptor at Farnborough, priced at less than half the cost of the roughly $4 million PAC-3 MSE. defence-blog.com/lockheed-dev...

Updated my profile. Again.

Some thoughts on recent Iranian strikes Many of these targets are still TSSTs (as defined), just not TCTs, given the pre-launch procedures they use, it is pretty obvious that RU supplied an external ISR and situational-awareness layer that Iran integrated into a streamlined F2T2EA process. 1/3

Some gravity bombs deliverable by max 12 aircraft is not a credible first-use warfighting capability.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists@thebulletin.org · 3w ago

Driven by pre-Cold War planning rather than a modern democratic mandate, the UK's shift toward first-use, non-strategic capabilities risks destabilizing the European balance and inviting escalation with Russia, write S.M. Amadae and Tom Stevenson.

It’s "realism" for me but not for thee It’s funny because he’s author of “coalition-based denial”,yet he attacks the very idea of transactional alliances. Y’know when a patron lacks credibility,even poses a threat and considers coalitions completely dispensable,middle powers begin to hedge SURPRISE

Fubar 🇨🇦@captainfubar.bsky.social · 3w ago

The cheese is mad that Canada (and the EU) are starting to assert themselves on the global stage and rearm AFTER getting pissy with us for the past 6 months that we weren't doing enough

It’s not a single programme. It is an initiative that establishes a political and requirements-setting coalition: common operational requirements (incl C3), technical working groups, governance, data exchange and a roadmap toward initial capability (viewed comprehensively). It follows on from... 1/2

Bleddyn Bowen@bleddb.bsky.social · 3w ago

I’m guessing that this European missile defence programme is basically an equivalent THAAD and/or Patriot programme for terminal phase and theatre missile defence.

It’s gonna have some interesting capabilities, kinematics-wise. If my calculations are at least partially correct it will be in the similar ballpark as PAC-3 CRI, that is effective intercept altitude 12–18 km, 30-38km effective slant reach, 1.25–1.55 km/s terminal etc

NOELREPORTS@noelreports.com · 3w ago

Zelensky said Ukraine is finalizing its own antiballistic missile for the FREYA project. European defense firms can provide radars and other critical components. He called on coalition leaders to politically confirm FREYA as a joint European project. #Ukraine

Cross-post from twitter I recently re-read this text (and some others from the US 1980s debate),so I thought it was worth sharing as it offers a very interesting insight into US strategic thought in the 80s re emerging tripolar system A little🧵-Todd R. Starbuck’s China and the Great Power Balance

A ‘Mirage III.C’ in flight in the early 1960s. The III.C variant was designed for fighter and interceptor roles. It was a truly magnificent aircraft. © Ecpad

Ukraine drone crews have been hammering Russia's fuel tankers last 4 nights in Azov Sea, Crimea. Claimed hits are now around 40 ships. Satellite data support this. Count has gone from around 90 to 40. Of course, some might have fled but gone they are.

WarTranslated (Dmitri)@wartranslated.bsky.social · 4w ago

Burning tankers of Russia's shadow fleet in the Sea of Azov.

Maybe NATO should just not have summits for 2027 and 2028. Low-key constructive work to transfer more responsibility to Europe can continue without giving Trump a platform to beat up on allies and undermine deterrence further.

Henry Foy@henryjfoy.ft.com · 4w ago

💥 Trump "completely committed" to Nato despite threats over Greenland, US troops in Europe & Iran support, Rutte insists as leaders arrive at a summit of the shaky alliance Follow the developments live from Ankara w/ @jprathbone.bsky.social @lucyfisher.ft.com & I here: www.ft.com/content/f2eb...

❗️EU authorities demand urgent explanations from Hungary after leaked recordings reveal FM Szijjarto shared internal EU and national discussions with Russia between 2023 and 2025. Lawmakers are also pushing to restrict access to sensitive information for pro-Russian officials within EU institutions.

On 4 March, French Defence Minister Vautrin dropped quite the bomb in an interview with Etienne Ouvrier of Le Dauphine regarding French stocks of HEU and plutonium: France has enough recoverable material from dismantled warheads for new warheads. 1/8 www.ledauphine.com/defense-guer...

Yeah, when pro-Israel voices say that the US military commits war crimes just like the IDF, I want to throw hands.

Meanwhile, the USAF isn’t procuring MAWS for F-15EX

Zach@thrustwr.bsky.social · 4mo ago

F-15E was brought down by a regular MANPAD. We saw some of the IRGC guys in the area where it was shot down carrying Iranian MANPADs.

2 things 1 Everyone should calm down, the US is not going to nuke Tehran. 2 Trump’s genocidal rhetoric is absolutely repugnant and should be instantly condemned in any decent society, regardless of politics, and it is pathetic and a sign of the times that this man is president

Have you ever heard of MMIII?

Mike Black@mikeblack114.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Despite what this place has apparently convinced themselves of, the US military is not capable of placing a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet instantaneously

Few words on NATO nuclear deterrence by Jim Stokes (frmr NATO Director of Nuclear Policy) and Yanitsa Dyakova (NATO Nuclear Policy) www.jwc.nato.int/wp-content/u...

As for the possible Qaem payload- Iranians have some experience with graphite-filled carbon-phenolic (C-Ph) composites (for nozzles, the technology for TPS is fairly similar in that regard) even though they have never tested RVs at such ranges. Not speaking about the accuracy, likely horrible

Trilateral/3-body deterrence dynamics are spooky and might be intrinsically unstable. Guess we are going to find out!

I'm gonna say it: Bob is at least directionally right even if I do not agree on all of his prescriptions. "We build, they build. We stop, they build" is back on the menu. It takes two to arms race, but we are categorically NOT the initiators if this race begins in earnest.

Sharon 🪳🌹@sharonk.bsky.social · 5mo ago

checking on Bob Peters and Heritage and.... God damn it, Bob, this is how we get a nuclear arms race again www.heritage.org/china/commen...

TLAM, LRASM, JASSM and LRAShCM-N are really bad ideas but other points are quite sensible from the planning perspective. Agree that most of this aren’t happening. At least GLCM should happen though, even if it’s difficult to containerise SLCM-N (use control features)

Andrew Facini@andrewfacini.com · 5mo ago

Like yeah sure just play the hits. P2025 calls for a ton of pet projects and retro-bad ideas. Most aren't happening because it's a Bridge too far. But if we're not even going to be graced with a perfunctory sentence on uploading or missile defenses or NSNW, who is this op-ed even for?

This is one of my favorite products to produce because it is about getting the terrain to tell a story to the staff.

Nate Ledbetter@nhledbetter.bsky.social · 5mo ago

The example here is a textbook MCOO (Modified Combined Obstacle Overlay), which shows terrain features including key terrain, mobility corridors (roads),urban settings, and other locations of note. 14/

This is very good on how the cult of tactics and lethality is about to do serious damage to US PME I'd add that anti-intellectualism is a major threat to PME elsewhere, too

True in a technical sense, tho it’s important to note that in modern conflicts (Iran is no exception), the air dominance is localised to enable the mission objectives. So it is “localised total” air dominance

NOELREPORTS@noelreports.com · 5mo ago

Israeli/US fighter jets flying really low over Chabahar, southern Iran. Earlier today, low flying fighter jets were spotted near Isfahan, indicating total air dominance. #Iran