Do rent controls actually reduce housing costs for private renters? What do they do to the availability and quality of rental housing – and to who lives where? All this and more in @matthewoulton.bsky.social’s new explainer – read below!

Matthew Oulton@matthewoulton.bsky.social · 3w ago

NEW: Private renters are spending more than ever on housing (28% income in 2024-25), fuelling debate about rent controls. But do rent controls work? My new explainer with Tom Wernham for @theifs.bsky.social interrogates the research about their effects in practice (🧵):

NEW: Private renters are spending more than ever on housing (28% income in 2024-25), fuelling debate about rent controls. But do rent controls work? My new explainer with Tom Wernham for @theifs.bsky.social interrogates the research about their effects in practice (🧵):

NEW: What are rent controls? How do they impact renters, landlords and rental properties? And are they the answer the UK’s historically high housing costs? 📗 @matthewoulton.bsky.social and Tom Wernham review the evidence in our new explainer on the effects of rent controls ⬇️

This is the most important chart for understanding how working-age benefit spending has changed over last two decades. In overall levels spending as % of GDP is lower now that it was in 2012, but the composition of that spending is very different.

Eduin Latimer@eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 2mo ago

3. Rising spending on disability benefits and other health-related benefit spending have pushed up overall spending on benefits for working-age adults and children since the pandemic but as a share of GDP total benefit spending is still lower than it was in 2012.

We have a comment in the Times today on how yesterday's VAT cut will be paid for. The money has to come from somewhere within departmental budgets, but we don't know what will be squeezed. That's different to the bus fares policy, where more specific cuts have been set out

"This reform reduces one arbitrary distinction in the tax system while increasing another. A simpler system of pensions taxation is possible." 📰 Read @matthewoulton.bsky.social & @laurenceobrien.bsky.social's article in FT Adviser on the latest pension tax reform: www.ftadviser.com/content/387f...

Pensions tax reform is a step in the wrong direction

In last November’s Budget the chancellor announced a significant change to the taxation of pensions.

ftadviser.com

Data on NEETs are often low quality. But we have good information on payrolled employees, and the picture here suggests employment has fallen substantially for young adults in the years after they’d normally enter the labour market

The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 4mo ago

The falls in employment among 16- and 17-year-olds are likely at least in part due to fewer people working part-time alongside studies. Employment rates among 22- to- 24-year-olds – the substantial majority of whom have finished education - fell by 4.8 percentage points.

NEW: The new tax on salary sacrifice pension contributions are set to hit higher earners in the private sector the hardest. 📗 @laurenceobrien.bsky.social & @matthewoulton.bsky.social’s new report examines who will be most affected by changes to how salary sacrifice pension contributions are taxed:

The House of Lords Economic Affairs committee has just published a report on the fiscal framework. One fairly major suggestion: that the government set out an additional fiscal target, in which debt as a share of GDP is lower in the third year of the forecast than in the first year in normal times

Fortifying the fiscal framework report published - Committees - UK Parliament

The House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee has today published its report, ‘Fortifying the fiscal framework’.

committees.parliament.uk

An SSAC report today highlights a huge difference in the treatment by the benefit system of young people aged 16-19 depending on if they remain in full time education or pursue an apprenticeship. What does this mean for apprenticeships? THREAD:

NEW: The government’s decision to abolish the Carbon Price Support is “a welcome, if small, step towards more uniform taxation of carbon emissions.” 📗 Read Stuart Adam, Isaac Delestre, @peterlevell.bsky.social and Bobbie Upton's response to the announcement here: ifs.org.uk/articles/res...

Many of the weirdest and worst features of our tax system are small things that distort incentives or contradict other objectives pursued elsewhere in the tax system. The government’s decision is a small step towards a more sensible approach to taxing carbon.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 5mo ago

NEW: The government’s decision to abolish the Carbon Price Support is “a welcome, if small, step towards more uniform taxation of carbon emissions.” 📗 Read Stuart Adam, Isaac Delestre, @peterlevell.bsky.social and Bobbie Upton's response to the announcement here: ifs.org.uk/articles/res...

2. The gap between rich & poor areas is roughly a decade for lifespan & roughly 2 decades for good health Life expectancy: recovered a bit from pandemic era, but is still worse than before. So prolonged sliippage Healthy life: expectancy actually worse than pandemic era

1. Powerful visualisation of the cast-iron link between deprivation, health and lifespans One of the most important official data sets there is ... Full report here ... www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

One thing I find really striking on defence spending: the Strategic Defence Review was meant to be deliverable with *slower* defence spending than currently planned. The govt accepted all its recommendations. But it's long looked very ambitious to deliver within spending plans

Financial Times@financialtimes.com · 5mo ago

Starmer accused of ‘corrosive complacency’ on UK defence by former Nato chief ft.trib.al/zagwzgh

Some incredibly important findings here for housing policy. The demand-side policies adopting the last couple of decades mostly helped relatively high earners

The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 5mo ago

NEW: ‘Help to Buy’ schemes mainly increased affordability for higher earners living in cheap areas, with limited impact on social mobility 🧵 @beeboileau.bsky.social, Lucas Conwell and @peterlevell.bsky.social’s new research examines the impact of Help to Buy on housing affordability: [THREAD]

NEW: Upcoming changes to universal credit this April will have a significant impact on the incomes of millions of people. What changes are coming in and how will this affect incomes? @matthewoulton.bsky.social and Tom Waters explain: [THREAD]

1/ The labour market has seen significant changes in recent decades. With automation accelerating, more is coming. Can workers switch jobs fast enough to keep up? We study how reallocation across occupations shapes wages, employment and inequality. #EconSky New WP ⬇️ ifs.org.uk/publications...

The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW #IFSWorkingPaper: The impact of labour demand shocks when occupational labour supplies are heterogeneous Michael J. Böhm, Ben Etheridge and @aitor-if.bsky.social's model quantifies the heterogeneous impacts of labour demand shifts on wages and employment: ifs.org.uk/publications...

NEW: A look ahead to the Spring Forecast @beeboileau.bsky.social, Carl Emmerson, @matthewoulton.bsky.social, Isabel Stockton & @benzaranko.bsky.social look at the Chancellor’s options in the upcoming Spring Forecast: [THREAD: 1/6]

4a/Where does this inequality arise? It turns out that most of the differences in inflation rates across households is not because of differences across categories or types, rather it is driven by differences in what exact products they buy *within* categories.

How to dodge a tariff My column this week for the @financialtimes.com 1st 300 clicks free to read... on.ft.com/3CDBKzA