Michael Shurkin
@michaelshurkin.bsky.social
Ex-CIA, Ex-RAND, ex-historian. I post on things related to defense, national security, Africa (esp. the Sahel), and all things French military. Sometimes troll antisemites.
5 August 1928 | A French Jewish girl, Bella Rubin, was born in Paris. She arrived at #Auschwitz on 19 July 1942 in a transport of 1,000 Jews deported from Drancy together white her mother Marta and a younger sister Micheline. They were all murdered in a gas chamber.
"Basically, for the Left, Ceuta is a demonstration of Jews’ fantastical and malignant power. For the Right, Ceuta is a demonstration of what happens when one is soft on immigration. Rare are the voices that try to explain events by looking at Moroccan domestic politics."
My thoughts on Ceuta. shurkin.substack.com/p/what-happe...
In 2026 so far, the Trump admin has bombed: —Iran—14,000+ strikes; 1 JSOC mission —Somalia—strikes on 66 days —Caribbean/E. Pacific—31 strikes —Iraq—strikes on 26+ days —Syria—strikes on 18 days —Arabian Sea—9 strikes —Nigeria—strikes on 3 days; 1 JSOC raid —Venezuela—strikes on 2 days; 1 JSOC raid
Year-end tally of Trump admin combat actions in 2025: —Yemen—1,000+ strikes* —Somalia—140+ strikes, 1 ground raid** —Syria—78+ strikes, 3 ground raids*** —Iran—3 B-2 strikes —Iraq—1 strike —Nigeria—1 set of TLAM strikes —Caribbean—11 strikes —Eastern Pacific—20 strikes —Venezuela—1 known CIA strike
What ever happened to fiscal conservatives and budget hawks?
Bad news: The 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high today. 🚨🚨🚨 America's going to have to pay more for its colossal debt, which will soon hit $40 trillion. Interest already tops $1T a year and is growing rapidly. Latest GOP/WH plans would increase the deficit. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
❗️U.S. Senate advanced Senator Lindsey Graham’s Russia sanctions bill in an 86-12 vote. The legislation would impose 100% secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and gas, target Russia’s shadow fleet and extend sanctions on Iran. Zelensky watched the vote from the Senate gallery. #Ukraine
Cannibalism has been on my mind, and I'm not happy about it. open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...
Cannibalism as a Policy Challenge
A recent report by the Washington Post saying that the White House was weighing options for providing security assistance to Mali’s beleaguered government prompted a Malian friend to note, scornfully,...
open.substack.com
New for RUSI today - An Update on the Air War over Ukraine four years on: www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
Four Years On: An Update on the Air War Over Ukraine
An established Ukrainian F-16 Fighter Wing and the overstretch of fighters and air defences on both sides by sustained long-range strike campaigns have changed the nature of the air war.
rusi.org
67 boat strikes 221 people killed EXCLUSIVE: Operation Southern Spear has not reduced the volume, availability, purity or price of cocaine arriving in the U.S., according to an internal DEA assessment and a closed-door Pentagon briefing for senators, and has made enforcement more difficult
67 boat strikes. 221 dead. The cocaine hasn’t slowed, officials report.
The president says Operation Southern Spear has virtually ended drug trafficking by sea. Pentagon and DEA analysts have concluded otherwise.
washingtonpost.com
I had a conversation with Salah Bayaziddi about Iran, Kurds and the war. Check it out. I learned a lot. youtu.be/JyVeTShtg08?...
Salah Bayaziddi on Iran and the Kurds
YouTube video by Pax Americana
youtu.be
Incroyable photo face au Cap Ferret en flammes... En 2026, le mème « This is fine » prend vie. (𝑃ℎ𝑜𝑡𝑜 𝐴𝐹𝑃 - 𝑀𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑛 𝐿𝑎𝑚𝑦)
Vous n'avez pas encore lu ceci? www.amazon.fr/-/en/Penser-...
Penser la guerre à la française: Huit leçons de stratégie pour les conflits d’aujourd’hui : Shurkin, Michael: Amazon.fr: Books
Penser la guerre à la française: Huit leçons de stratégie pour les conflits d’aujourd’hui : Shurkin, Michael: Amazon.fr: Books
amazon.fr
Leavitt confirms that Trump is unilaterally changing the terms of the Saudi nuclear deal via Truth Social posts without even contacting any Saudi officials
The Insider asked me to write about who actually controls the Strait of Hormuz. "As things currently stand, Iran sets the terms of risk while the United States retains the capacity to set the terms of consequence. Importantly, these are not the same thing." theins.press/en/opinion/s...
Open but off-limits: Who actually controls the Strait of Hormuz?
At this moment, no one can say with certainty who controls the Strait of Hormuz. Everyone understands that the United States holds all of the strongest cards,…
theins.press
Another day, another cannibalism video coming out of Mali.
The contrast between the US and UK is amazing. America has Trump. The UK has a new leader no one's ever heard of and was just upstaged by Larry the Cat.
@michaelshurkin.bsky.social gives an excellent commentary on the #Iranwar. @scottlucas.bsky.social @hcrichardson.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...
When Trump Derangement Syndrome Goes Too Far
I have made no secret of my misgivings about the Iran war, namely the apparent absence of anything I might call a coherent strategy.
open.substack.com
I saw that movie everyone's complaining about. It was awesome. Definitely something to see in a theater. Don't leave for streaming.
I had the honor of interviewing the great Tsiporah Fried about French nuclear policy and European defense integration. Check it out! youtu.be/pKKYhjuFpkI
Talking to Tsiporah Fried about French Nuclear Deterrence and Euro Defense Integration
YouTube video by Pax Americana
youtu.be
I had the honor of interviewing the great Tsiporah Fried about French nuclear policy and European defense integration. Check it out! youtu.be/pKKYhjuFpkI
Talking to Tsiporah Fried about French Nuclear Deterrence and Euro Defense Integration
YouTube video by Pax Americana
youtu.be
Just in time for 14 July: Here is an interview I recently did with Vago Muradian about my book on French military strategy, for Muradian's Defense and Aerospace podcast. You can find it on all the usual platforms (soundcloud, spotify, apple). defaeroreport.com/2026/07/14/d...
DEFAERO Strategy Series [Jul 14, 26] Dr. Michael Shurkin on the French Way of War - Defense & Aerospace Report
On today’s Strategy Series program, sponsored by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Dr. Michael Shurkin, a veteran of the CIA as well as the RAND Corporation think tank who’s now the director of Gl...
defaeroreport.com
“Less America is not just about fewer [US] troops or tanks coming to support us: it’s about questioning how we will fight if we don’t need to fight like Americans.” 🎁🔗
How Europe would fight without America
As Nato meets, the continent is starting to think about how to defend itself without the US
giftarticle.ft.com