Tropical Storm #Bertha is a sheared and tilted tropical cyclone. But many TCs start out this way. What factors determine whether a storm can become aligned and intensify? Well, that is exactly what we explored in our recent publication: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

The fireworks are starting early with #Bavi. Some explosive rapid intensification is likely to occur over the next 24 hours.

It's the first day of hurricane season in the Atlantic. TC-ATLAS now features a real-time monitoring page with geostationary and microwave satellite data, real-time surface observations, and objective model forecasts from Google DeepMind. michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/rea...

Hello friends, just a note that I have been steadily adding features over the last month+ to TC-ATLAS. This includes a real-time monitoring page for synoptic, subseasonal, and seasonal aspects. Examples attached. Check out more here: michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/rea...

Michael Fischer@mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Interested in hurricanes? I want to introduce TC-ATLAS: the Tropical Cyclone Analysis Tool for Live and Archived Structure. Explore live or past storms without writing a line of code or downloading a data file, building on the capabilities of TC-RADAR: michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/ind...

News: WH released proposed FY27 budget, continuing to push plan to eliminate NOAA Research and massively cut Earth sciences - while NOAA grant data for FY2026 shows only 7 new grants so far compared to 379 in FY2025, further evidence of curtailed science budget execution. tinyurl.com/5e3ptub2

White House releases FY27 budget proposal, continuing plan of massive cuts to Earth science, including elimination of NOAA Research

NOAA grant data shows agency awarding grants at a much slower rate than previous years, likely showing administration strategy to reduce scientific spending through budget execution

tinyurl.com

Hello from 34k ft in the air as I’m headed to @AMSTropical. I just wanted to share that TC-ATLAS now features environmental diagnostics from ERA5 courtesy of TC-PRIMED and interactive NEXRAD radar data in the global archive page: michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/ind...

Michael Fischer@mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 4mo ago

One more new feature: The global archive page of TC-ATLAS now has a "models" toggle so you can review the evolution of past forecasts going back to 1991. Some notable examples of challenging forecasts below. michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/ind...

One more new feature: The global archive page of TC-ATLAS now has a "models" toggle so you can review the evolution of past forecasts going back to 1991. Some notable examples of challenging forecasts below. michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/ind...

Michael Fischer@mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Interested in hurricanes? I want to introduce TC-ATLAS: the Tropical Cyclone Analysis Tool for Live and Archived Structure. Explore live or past storms without writing a line of code or downloading a data file, building on the capabilities of TC-RADAR: michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/ind...

Interested in hurricanes? I want to introduce TC-ATLAS: the Tropical Cyclone Analysis Tool for Live and Archived Structure. Explore live or past storms without writing a line of code or downloading a data file, building on the capabilities of TC-RADAR: michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/ind...

Unfortunately the sky was indeed the limit. Catastrophic #Melissa is on track to be the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the Atlantic in 90 years. Just absolutely gutted for the souls in Jamaica.

Michael Fischer@mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 9mo ago

#Melissa is intensifying very rapidly this evening. TDR structure is nearly perfect for a TC of this intensity. Incredibly symmetric, strong eyewall, and a deep, aligned circulation. The sky is the limit. Very scary situation.

#Melissa is intensifying very rapidly this evening. TDR structure is nearly perfect for a TC of this intensity. Incredibly symmetric, strong eyewall, and a deep, aligned circulation. The sky is the limit. Very scary situation.

Michael Fischer@mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 9mo ago

#Melissa is about to undergo rapid intensification (RI). And I anticipate it will be quite explosive. A classic cyan ring on 37 GHz imagery from this GMI overpass at 1447 UTC.

And here we go again with Hurricane #Melissa. RI ongoing and expected to continue.

Michael Fischer@mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 10mo ago

Anomalous upshear convection is often associated with rapid intensification in hurricanes. Here is a schematic from my dissertation and a recent snapshot of Hurricane Humberto, which is experiencing westerly shear. Although Humberto is fairly compact, its structure suggests RI is ongoing.

#Melissa is about to undergo rapid intensification (RI). And I anticipate it will be quite explosive. A classic cyan ring on 37 GHz imagery from this GMI overpass at 1447 UTC.

Two tropical cyclones churning in the western Atlantic. Here in FL, it’s business as usual. The power of modern meteorology.

This is one of the best satellite signatures I have ever seen in the SW Atlantic (non-Gulf/Caribbean). #Humberto is up there with storms like Andrew, Dorian, and Irma in my eyes.

Update: Hurricane #Humberto has intensified 55 kt in the last 12 h… extreme RI ongoing. Anomalous upshear convection is again a tell for subsequent RI. Thankfully the storm is well away from land for now.

Michael Fischer@mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 10mo ago

Anomalous upshear convection is often associated with rapid intensification in hurricanes. Here is a schematic from my dissertation and a recent snapshot of Hurricane Humberto, which is experiencing westerly shear. Although Humberto is fairly compact, its structure suggests RI is ongoing.

Anomalous upshear convection is often associated with rapid intensification in hurricanes. Here is a schematic from my dissertation and a recent snapshot of Hurricane Humberto, which is experiencing westerly shear. Although Humberto is fairly compact, its structure suggests RI is ongoing.

Hurricane #Erin looks poised to intensify, and likely rapidly.

With anomalously weak trade winds, the eastern Main Development Region of the Atlantic has rapidly warmed over the last two weeks. Models suggest this flow pattern should largely continue, favoring additional warming.

As of 6am CST 18 June #Erick is now a #hurricane & is likely starting rapid intensification, #RI, as a central dense overcast, #CDO, forms over the center. Hurricane warnings in effect for coastal #Mexico from Acapulco to Puerto Angel & Erick forecast to be near major hurricane at landfall.

The 2026 budget passback plan calls for eliminating NOAA Research, the scientific backbone that keeps weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings accurate and effective. This would have disastrous consequences. Read the AMS statement, in partnership w/ @nwas.org: bit.ly/4cz2RtC

Stand Up for NOAA Research – The Time to Act is Now

The AMS is a global community committed to advancing weather, water, and climate science and service.

bit.ly

Cyclone Errol is an extremely powerful storm. IR brightness temps in the eye are quite warm for a core that small. Reminds me of Milton in the Atlantic last year. And for my northern hemisphere friends, I have rotated the IR pattern to be consistent with a positive Coriolis value in the 2nd image.

68,845,865. That's how many individuals in the United States speak a language other than English at home. Everyone deserves a chance to stay safe during disasters, and I will never stop advocating for that. Thinking of all the communities that are going to be affected by this change.

Lauren Rosenthal@laurenthal.bsky.social · last yr.

The National Weather Service will stop issuing forecasts + storm warnings in Spanish after a translation software contract lapsed at midnight Tuesday. Unclear when/if service will return. Scoop with @weathersullivan.bsky.social (free link): www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Thank you to UAH for the opportunity and hospitality during my visit. I had a great time talking about hurricanes and machine learning with the folks there. And a special thanks to @tcblers.bsky.social for the invitation and a great time in Huntsville!

Xiaomin Chen@tcblers.bsky.social · last yr.

Exciting to have @mikefischerwx.bsky.social to share his hurricane research at the UAH AES seminar and BLM class. Students showed high interests in the TC-RADAR dataset and future AI applications of aircraft observations. An extended Q&A session is the testament. Way to go, Professor :)

Here's my annual blog post about the NOAA National Hurricane Center's updated "cone of uncertainty". Hopefully there are some tidbits in there that are new to you! Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30. bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/03/2025...

2025 "Cone of Uncertainty" Update & Refresher

Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.

bmcnoldy.blogspot.com

Probationary employees across @NOAA and the @NWS are being terminated today, including those in mission-essential roles. My own wife is among them, essential to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's 24/7 critical mission of seismic monitoring and tsunami prediction to protect the public.

Dr. Levi Cowan@tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · last yr.

A statement I must make:

Uh oh. Zelia is explosively intensifying at this point. The enclosed pink ring in 36 GHz imagery is typically a signal only seen in extremely intense TCs or those about to be extremely intense.

Michael Fischer@mikefischerwx.bsky.social · last yr.

Off the northwest coast of Australia, Cyclone Zelia appears to be intensifying quite quickly. Some of the hurricane guidance brings the system up to the equivalent of category-5 intensity before landfall. Hopefully that’s overly aggressive.

Off the northwest coast of Australia, Cyclone Zelia appears to be intensifying quite quickly. Some of the hurricane guidance brings the system up to the equivalent of category-5 intensity before landfall. Hopefully that’s overly aggressive.

Just feel like I’m stuck in a nightmare that I’m not waking up from. What was egregious yesterday is tame today. When will it stop?

"Are rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones associated with unique vortex and convective characteristics?" Well, you can find out more here: doi.org/10.1175/MWR-... I'll summarize in the thread below.

Are rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones associated with unique vortex and convective characteristics?

Abstract The largest tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors are typically associated with episodes of rapid intensification (RI). Here, we explore whether TCs that undergo RI are associated w...

doi.org