Philippe Papin

@pppapin.bsky.social

Sr. Hurricane Specialist at NHC 🌀 | Ph.D + M.S. via UAlbany & B.S. via UNCA | Enjoy all kinds of weather 🌤❄️⛈🌪| Thoughts are my own

Take this storm seriously. Moderate to major impacts are expected from the Central US through to the Northeast through the weekend. - Hazardous to impossible driving conditions are expected. Avoid travel if at all possible. - Widespread closures and disruption to infrastructure may also occur.

Winter Storm Severity Index. No more important added content to add from what is in the post text.

I’d be very careful with posting snow maps for the weekend storm this far out. There’s still significant uncertainty with the amplitude & progression of both SW US + north stream troughs, which drives both the event duration & how far north heavy snow expands into the Northeast.

Unseasonable warmth is forecast across a large portion of the Lower 48 this week. High temps will soar to 30-40 degrees above normal, with some areas as much as 50 degrees above normal. Dozens of daily temp records could be broken. How warm will it be where you live this week? Check weather.gov.

Wildfires can spread quickly — by the time one is nearby, you may not have much time. Have an evacuation plan, and prepare an emergency supply kit ahead of time. Listen to local officials for emergency information and any evacuation orders.

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❄️ D.C.'s first measurable snow of the season covers the capital in a hush of flurries. Winter is making a return with cooler than normal temperatures in the forecast for the next several days. Stay up to date with the latest forecast at weather.gov. Credit: Bob Hyatt, NWS

Following the ongoing winter storm across the Upper Midwest, another storm system is forecast to impact parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes with wintry weather this weekend. Keep an eye on the forecast and check weather.gov for more information. ❄️

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What is poor practice during Hurricane season is also poor practice in Winter Season. Do not share deterministic models forecasts >5-7 days out. Snowfall maps are an especially poor choice of model graphic to share with much lead time. My 2️⃣🪙

Dr. Stephen Bieda III@drwildcatwx.bsky.social · 8mo ago

There is a reason why most (unfortunately I can’t say all) #meteorologists don’t show extended range ensemble forecasts for a reason. Even if a disclaimer like “this is not a forecast” is given, the forecast is still being shown and could be misinterpreted as such. 😒

A horrific accident early Saturday morning left a car in the side of an NWS office and the office relying on the NWS service backup system. Service backup is important in situations like this - but also is being increasingly used due to NWS staffing and infrastructure issues. tinyurl.com/4txuyhbz

Tragic vehicle accident takes an NWS office offline

Looking at how the NWS offices back each other up. Severe weather and flash flooding in the south central US next couple of days.

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Love observing the local effects of terrain on the boundary layer fog in California. For instance, Check out the drainage into the San Luis Reservoir where low level flow is forced to curve anticyclonic into the local saddle point of the Coastal Range. Makes for some photogenic views!

Hurricane Melissa produced the fastest hurricane winds to be recorded by a dropsonde, verified by reviewing data at NSF NCAR! Hurricane Melissa’s 252 mph wind gust surpassed the previous record from Typhoon Megi over the Western Pacific in 2010, where a dropsonde measured wind gusts of 248 mph.

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Still waiting for @bsky.app to build out functionality with direct messages. Namely, allow users to include images/videos in messages & ability to DM multiple users at once. Twitter's botched update on their platform for DMs should provide motivation to move here, but need similar functionality.⏰

I love how the wake-free zone of stratocu nicely corresponds to the area of >50F dewpoints advected off the Florida Peninsula & adjacent Gulf coast area. Taking a while for the sfc fluxes to moisten boundary layer enough to reach convective temp. Plot via @burgwx.bsky.social's RTMA analysis. #FLwx

Tomer Burg's RTMA centered over the Southeast. Plotted is dewpoint (shaded, deg F), 10 m wind (barbs), and MSLP (every 2 mb, thin black lines).
Jeff Frame@vortexjeff.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Satellite image of a wake free of cold-air stratocumulus clouds surrounding Florida. These clouds form when cold air moves over warm water.

Another way to put it -- in time it took to get 2️⃣ daily record lows at #KMIA, we set new record highs for more than a quarter of days in the calendar year b/w Nov 2014 to Nov 2025 (97/365 ~ 27% of all days). So yes, a remarkable cold snap, but got to put in proper context of record tends. #FLwx

Philippe Papin@pppapin.bsky.social · 9mo ago

This cold outbreak was also impressive in how far south it pushed, even to #Miami, FL. The Miami International Airport #KMIA set its first record low (49°F) in more than a decade! Between the last two record lows (11/2/14 to 11/11/25), there have been *97 new record highs* set at the airport. #FLwx

This cold outbreak was also impressive in how far south it pushed, even to #Miami, FL. The Miami International Airport #KMIA set its first record low (49°F) in more than a decade! Between the last two record lows (11/2/14 to 11/11/25), there have been *97 new record highs* set at the airport. #FLwx

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 9mo ago

More than 80 record lows broken or tied this morning (dark blue)! This is a huge feat given that fall has warmed by about ~3F here in the SE in the last 50 years. I can’t remember a cold air outbreak in November with this many record lows. #winter #florida #freeze #cold