Chase Million

@millionconcepts.com

CEO of Million Concepts. Building software and data systems to reduce space mission risk, increase scientific return, and accelerate discovery. Astronomer and planetary scientist. Software engineer. Project manager. Writer. Magician. Dog person.

This is all well and good, but the big question remains: what is NASA trying to accomplish with PROMISE beyond getting a "win"? What is it trying to accomplish, and is it worth drawing down limited stockpiles of Pu-238 and using our spare RTG to do so?

David Burbach 🇺🇸@dburbach.bsky.social · 5d ago

NASA administrator Isaacman's response to @planetarysociety.bsky.social @caseydreier.bsky.social report that flying the earthbound Mars test rover to the moon will likely cost a billion. Isaacman doesn't actually disagree or cite any inaccuracies, one notes

We've gone from "shots on goal" to "wins on the board" just like that, huh? Talking past the real risk of failure. This mission, if attempted, will almost certainly result in total failure. The time-to-science and dollar-per-science of a mission that fails are both infinity. Worse than not trying.

Kaynouky@kaynouky.bsky.social · 5d ago

Dreier de la Planetary Society publie un excellent article dans lequel il évalue le coût probable du projet de rover lunaire PROMISE reconverti. Soit entre 0,7 et 1,3 milliard de dollar. Isaacman répond que pas du tout, que si ça coûte plus de ~150 millions ils ne poursuivront pas le projet :)

Isaacman

Isaacman very strongly implied that a "PROMISE" rover already existed, nearly flight ready, with an RTG. "There is another [...] called PROMISE." "Having a nuclear RTG on it [...]" "We've got the hardware." "It exists. [...] It's real." How was the administrator so mistaken about the proposal?

Casey Dreier@caseydreier.bsky.social · 6d ago

I attempted to put upper and lower bounds on what it would cost to repurpose Perseverance's testbed twin and send it to the Moon. It's not the cheap and fast mission people hope it is. www.planetary.org/articles/the...

One of the biggest and most disruptive innovations of "new space" is that they no longer meticulously define mission success criteria well in advance, with all stakeholders involved, in unambiguous language and verifiable, quantified benchmarks. Now it's vibes. Was that a success? 🤷 Who's asking?

Starship #40, flight 13. Bobs in the ocean on fire.Screenshot from IM-1 landing press conference, showing a small model of IM-1 laying on its side, perched atop an even smaller 3D printed model of IM-1. In what was retroactively described as the "partial success" orientation.

One of the biggest and most disruptive innovations of "new space" is that they no longer meticulously define mission success criteria well in advance, with all stakeholders involved, in unambiguous language and verifiable, quantified benchmarks. Now it's vibes. Was that a success? 🤷 Who's asking?

Starship #40, flight 13. Bobs in the ocean on fire.Screenshot from IM-1 landing press conference, showing a small model of IM-1 laying on its side, perched atop an even smaller 3D printed model of IM-1. In what was retroactively described as the "partial success" orientation.

Went well enough. It would be more impressive if this was Flight 2, not 13. Still losing tiles, there's damage to the airframe, and Super Heavy was lost again. On the same flight path as the others. At some point, this thing has to actually work.

Big Dumb Booster@buccaneerboosters.bsky.social · 3w ago

To reiterate: it's abundantly clear the Starship program is a colossal systems engineering failure. Despite cries of "iteration", we are at the thirteenth flight and third version of this vehicle and it still lacks basic functionality.

By training and culture, scientists tend to assume that others are acting generally in good faith, not willfully lying, and share an interest in pursuit of truth for the good of humanity. This is easily exploited by hostile and bad faith actors. Sometimes the correct response is "Fuck you, liar."

Derek Lowe@dereklowe.bsky.social · 2w ago

Thoughts on the various Trump administration proposals to revamp US science funding - and what they all have in common:

"How did the bot escape its vibe coded sandboxing? [...] Well, they vibed the sandbox, you tell me. [...] If the story told by these press releases is 100% true, then OpenAI hacking HuggingFace is when incompetence crashed into incompetence and they turned it into a mutual marketing stunt."

OpenAI hacks HuggingFace with an AI — allegedly

On 16 July, the AI model repository HuggingFace posted a security incident report. Well, I say “incident report” — it’s written like an AI doomsday press release: [GitHub] Earlier this week, we det…

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