Solomon Kurz
@solomonkurz.bsky.social
Clinical psychology researcher | applied statistics geek | so called #RStats influencer
Big news! 🎉 𝚖𝚊𝚛𝚐𝚒𝚗𝚊𝚕𝚎𝚏𝚏𝚎𝚌𝚝𝚜 1.0.0 for #Rstats is out. It’s a big number and it feels like a big step. I wrote a blog on the challenges of interpreting statistical models, SPEED, cool new features, the future, and a 5 year package development and writing odyssey. arelbundock.com/posts/margin...
Here's my conversation with @bethclarke.bsky.social, incoming Junior Professor of Psychological Metascience at the Leibniz-Institut für Psychologie. www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Hak... We discussed direct replications, how study limitations are ignored, and p-curving social and personality psychology.
Direct replications, P-curves, and Acknowledging Limitations | Beth Clarke
YouTube video by Metascience Matters
youtube.com
Anyone moving (or keeping) their preregistrations on Zenodo? I'm thinking it makes more sense to move them over so projects will ultimately be on the same platform, but it looks like you can't actually blind them for peer review (even if posted as restricted, identity is still attached)?
Psych Science has retracted Ariely & Wertenbroch (2002). The second author requested the retraction. Both authors agreed to it. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.... So grateful to @datacolada.bsky.social for these blog posts and the work behind them: datacolada.org/138 and datacolada.org/139 1/2
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
journals.sagepub.com
I most definitely didn’t expect this to get covered by 2P4B, yet here we are. Very nice episode, can recommend!
Michael Inzlicht@minzlicht.bsky.social · 6d agoNew episode of @fourbeerspod.bsky.social We had @andymasley.bsky.social on to the show to discuss AI and the environment. We got into data centers, effective altruism and TESCREAL, and whether you should trust a researcher based on who funds them. This was a real fun one! www.fourbeers.com/133
In this special episode of Learning Bayesian Statistics, @alex-andorra.bsky.social is joined by Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, and Richard McElreath to discuss Bayesian Workflow. From simulation and hierarchical pooling to causal inference, there’s a lot to unpack 🎧 lnkd.in/geX2QkxV #Bayesian
Bayesian Workflow - Gelman, Vehtari & McElreath
Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, and Richard McElreath discuss their new book on Bayesian workflow, reverse Bayes and hierarchical pooling.
learnbayesstats.com
Amazing screenshot. I have never been a deadlines researcher, but man oh man, I've also never seen real-life data with that kind of a pattern
Data Colada@datacolada.bsky.social · 6d agoAn influential paper by Ariely & Wertenbroch (2002) reported two studies with tampered data. Post 1 of 2. datacolada.org/138
With {ggcube}, I can finally make versions of Kruschke's 3D plots. It only took 8 years... Here's a couple previews:
bayesplot R package 1.16.0 now in CRAN! This release has quite a lot of new functionality and other improvements. Below are some highlights. For more detailed release notes that cover additional improvements and bug fixes see Changelog mc-stan.org/bayesplot/ne...
Changelog
mc-stan.org
Has anyone written a good piece about the incoming AI science slop tsunami and what to do about it?
New Blog post: Which Data Repository Should you Use? In light of OSF closing down, I compare Zenodo, Dataverse, ResearchBox, PsychArchive, and local repositories on six important dimensions. If you want to know which to pick: It depends! daniellakens.blogspot.com/2026/08/whic...
Which Data Repository Should You Use?
The Center for Open Science has announced that from November 16, 2026, no new projects can be created on the Open Science Framework. After F...
daniellakens.blogspot.com
I’ve been told for years that it’s legally and ethically impossible to share medical RCT data. In 2024, the BMJ made sharing anonymised data mandatory, and now lots* of folk do it. Interesting how the barriers evaporated like that, isn’t it? *not everyone, compliance problems exist.
Availability of clinical trial individual patient data in the BMJ before and after adoption of a stringent data-sharing policy, compared with recent rates at other major medical journals
Background In 2024, the BMJ updated its data-sharing policy for clinical trials, requiring open deposit of deidentified individual participant data (IPD) before publication. We considered whether data...
medrxiv.org
All four books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use: - Bayesian Workflow at avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... Links to other three books are in the quoted post 👇 (too many books to fit in one post!)
Bayesian Workflow book: Website – Bayesian Workflow book
Website for the Bayesian Workflow book by Gelman, Vehtari, McElreath, et al. — case studies, code, and exercises in R and Stan.
avehtari.github.io
Aki Vehtari@avehtari.bsky.social · 2y agoAll three books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use: - #Bayesian Data Analysis, 3rd ed (aka BDA3) at stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/ - #Regression and Other Stories at avehtari.github.io/ROS-Examples/ - Active Statistics at avehtari.github.io/ActiveStatis...
Just got feedback from the peer review. It looks like the mistakes I found were indeed mistakes, and they are even more pervasive than I thought. More to come, soon. In the meantime, do not rely on this paper.
Solomon Kurz@solomonkurz.bsky.social · 4w agoLooking for #RStats peer review: I may have found a mistake in Reluga et al's (2024; doi.org/10.1214/24-E...) simulation code, which changes the results. The reviewer would need some knowledge simulation studies, and/or causal inference, and/or Poisson regression. Ideally they'd be a statistician.
The following R script downloads your public projects from the OSF. Set the variable "me" to your OSF user ID, which you can find at osf.io/profile after logging in.
You can use this R function to download all of the files associated with an OSF project. Improvements are coming in the next version to include registrations. Should we add a function to download all your public and private projects? osf_file_download(“abcde”) www.scienceverse.org/metacheck/
Check Research Outputs for Best Practices
A modular, extendable system for checking research outputs for best practices using text search, R code, and/or (optional) LLM queries.
scienceverse.org
Joe Bak-Coleman@jbakcoleman.bsky.social · 4w agoOn the off chance you're relying on OSF to store your data; put copies of it somewhere safe ASAP. I like to think they've got the runway to keep storing things like they suggest, but it wouldn't be the first time something like this went dark on the internet. www.cos.io/osf-changes
Many of you will have seen the recent post about changes at OSF. If you'd like to learn more about how to use other services (particularly Zenodo) to share data and code, see my book chapter on resource sharing. bettercode-book.org/book-sharing...
12 Sharing Research Objects – Better Code, Better Science
bettercode-book.org
Looking for #RStats peer review: I may have found a mistake in Reluga et al's (2024; doi.org/10.1214/24-E...) simulation code, which changes the results. The reviewer would need some knowledge simulation studies, and/or causal inference, and/or Poisson regression. Ideally they'd be a statistician.
A unified analysis of regression adjustment in randomized experiments
Regression adjustment is broadly applied in randomized trials under the premise that it usually improves the precision of a treatment effect estimator. However, previous work has shown that this is not always true. To further understand this phenomenon, we develop a unified comparison of the asymptotic variance of a class of linear regression-adjusted estimators. Our analysis is based on the classical theory for linear regression with heteroscedastic errors and thus does not assume that the postulated linear model is correct. For a randomized Bernoulli trial, we provide sufficient conditions under which some regression-adjusted estimators are guaranteed to be more asymptotically efficient than others. We comment on the extension of our theory to other settings such as general treatment mechanisms and generalized linear models, and find that the variance dominance phenomenon no longer occurs
doi.org
Over the next several months, we will phase out some popular OSF features. These changes do not affect current public content, which remains safe and accessible. We have prepared support material to help users adapt. I am very sorry for the disruption to your work. Please read this post for details.
OSF Changes | Center for Open Science
We are preparing substantial changes to OSF that will reduce its functionality, focus OSF on its unique strengths, and move toward an integrated model with complementary services. As part of that shif...
cos.io
Bomb discourse from a historian. A+ Much better than the usual Bluesky drivel on this topic.
Alex Wellerstein@wellerstein.bsky.social · 4w ago81 years ago today, on August 9, 1945, an atomic bomb was dropped upon the city of Nagasaki, Japan, by the United States. This was 3 days after the first atomic attack on Hiroshima.
Since measles vaccines are on the news again (and sadly never for good reasons anymore), here are three articles I've written about them. 1. How well does the measles vaccine work? What are the risks? I summarise the evidence here.
How effective and safe are measles vaccines?
Data from large meta-analyses show that measles vaccination is highly effective and safe, giving a 95% reduction in the risk of measles.
ourworldindata.org
I'm so happy to announce version 2.0.0 of my #Rstats package WeightIt is out on CRAN! New features: censoring weights, multilevel propensity scores, improved weights for continuous treatments, bias-reduced ordinal and multinomial models, M-estimation in subgroups Check out the website below!
Weighting for Covariate Balance in Observational Studies
Generates balancing weights for causal effect estimation in observational studies with binary, multi-category, or continuous point or longitudinal treatments by easing and extending the functionality ...
ngreifer.github.io
Psychological Science is running a special issue on "Advancing Psychological Science using Large Language Models", co-edited by me and @ruben.the100.ci. Check out the calls for submissions below! www.psychologicalscience.org/publications...
Special Issue Call for Submissions: “Advancing Psychological Science using Large Language Models”
Editors: Jamie Cummins and Ruben C. ArslanPsychological Science invites submissions for a special issue on psychological science involving large language models. We welcome theoretically and empirical...
psychologicalscience.org
I'm interested in finding and potentially supporting people who are interested in doing long-form writing on the big efforts in global health: Gavi, Global Fund, PEPFAR, etc. If this is you or someone you know, please make yourself known!
