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Stefan Müller

@stefanmueller.bsky.social

Associate Professor @ucddublin.bsky.social • party competition, public opinion, political communication, computational social science • Maintainer @irishpollingind.bsky.social • Young Academy Ireland stefanmueller.ie

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Stefan Müller@stefanmueller.bsky.social · 3w ago

Article on RTÉ Brainstorm with @liamkne.bsky.social ahead of the All-Ireland Finals: we find that GAA interest cuts across income, education and gender, but not politics: Fianna Fáil voters are keenest, left-wing voters least interested. ➡️ www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2... @rtebrainstorm.bsky.social

GAA interest by age (rising from 3.3 for 18–24 year olds to 5.0 for over-65s), by gender (5.0 for men, 4.2 for women), and by area (4.9 rural, 4.4 urban), on a 0–10 scale.Bar chart showing GAA interest by household income (from 3.2 below €20,000 to around 4.7–4.9 across all higher brackets) and by education level (from 4.0 for lower secondary to 4.7 for degree holders), on a 0–10 scale.Average GAA interest by 2024 general election vote choice, ranked from Fianna Fáil (6.3) and Independent Ireland (5.7) down to Social Democrats (3.3) and other parties (3.2), on a 0–10 scale.GAA interest by left-right self-placement, rising from 3.4 on the left to 5.1–5.2 among centrist and right-leaning respondents, on a 0–10 scale.
RTÉ Brainstorm@rtebrainstorm.bsky.social · 3w ago

Does an interest in Gaelic games predict how you will vote? Analysis by @stefanmueller.bsky.social @ucddublin.bsky.social and Liam Kneafsey @tcddublin.bsky.social @researchireland.ie www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2...

Political Studies Association Ireland@psaireland.bsky.social · 2mo ago

The Political Studies Association of Ireland annual conference is coming to Cork in October (16th-18th). The call for papers is open now, papers from across the discipline are welcome. Information is available at www.psai.ie/conferences/... Please do share with interested colleagues.

Conferences - PSAI

The next PSAI Annual Conference will be hosted by University College Cork in October 2026. The PSAI also organises a biennial Postgraduate Conference. The most recent Postgraduate Conference was held ...

psai.ie

Michael Gallagher@michaelgtcd.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Of the 137 winners of contested Dáil by-elections, 11 have started with first preference vote below 25%. Only one below 20%: current Ind Ireland TD Michael Fitzmaurice was elected having received 18.7% of first prefs in Roscommon–South Leitrim S 2014. Maybe this record could be challenged on 22 May?

Michael Gallagher@michaelgtcd.bsky.social · 3mo ago

By-elections 22 May: Analysis of transfers at 2024 election in How Ireland Voted 2024 shows that ‘soft left’ (Soc Dems / Labour / Greens) attract transfers both from FF & FG, who prefer them (esp Labour) to SF & other left, and from SF & other left, who prefer them (esp Soc Dems) to FF & FG.

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Stefan Müller@stefanmueller.bsky.social · 3mo ago

One week to go until the Dublin Central and Galway West bye-elections. I’ve wrangled, merged, and analysed various datasets to describe what a century of bye-elections can tell us about Irish politics.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ @news.rte.ie ➡️ www.rte.ie/news/analysi...

Politics: What a century of bye-election data reveals

What do bye-elections tell us about Irish politics? With contests due in Dublin Central and Galway West on 22 May, a century of results offers a sense of campaign strategies and voting behaviour.

rte.ie

Financial Times@financialtimes.com · 3mo ago

One of Ireland’s most notorious criminal figures is mounting a new bid for a parliamentary seat in Dublin left vacant by the former finance minister. ft.trib.al/apVCvto

Gavan Reilly@gavreilly.com · 3mo ago

Tepid takes: • 14% for Hutch would get him elected in a general election, but not in this. His only meaningful transfer in ‘24 was from Steenson; transfer toxicity is what cost him • Is a three-point lead enough for Boylan to win? Instinct is that the 14% combined Green/Lab vote breaks for SD

Gavan Reilly@gavreilly.com · 3mo ago

POLL: Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos B&A Galway West by-election (May 8-12, MoE 4%) J Boylan (SF) 21 D Ennis (SD) 18 G Hutch 14 R McAdam (FG) 13 J Horner (GP) 8 M Steenson 7 R O'Dea (Lab) 6 J Stephens (FF) 4 E Ó Ceannabháin (PBPS) 3 others 1 or less www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...

Gavan Reilly@gavreilly.com · 3mo ago

Most fascinating part (for me) of last night’s #MondayGR: Kevin Cunningham, pollster at Ireland Thinks, on how Micheál Martin is now so popular with Fine Gael voters that he’s lost Fianna Fáil’s historic support of the working class.

Virgin Media News@virginmedianews.bsky.social · 3mo ago

🗣️ “[Micheál Martin] wasn’t able to distinguish Fianna Fáil, at all, from Fine Gael.” Kevin Cunningham of Ireland Thinks discussed Micheál Martin’s leadership of Fianna Fáil, saying the party has become increasingly similar to coalition partners Fine Gael. #MondayGR | @gavreilly.com

Michael Gallagher@michaelgtcd.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Very informative – and topical given two upcoming 22 May by-elections – article on Irish by-elections by UCD’s Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social on RTÉ Brainstorm: rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2026/0426/1569745-bye-elections-through-the-years-analysis/

Politics: What a century of bye-election data reveals

What do bye-elections tell us about Irish politics? With contests due in Dublin Central and Galway West on 22 May, a century of results offers a sense of campaign strategies and voting behaviour.

rte.ie

European Consortium for Political Research@ecpr.bsky.social · 3mo ago

🛎️ 1 week left to apply for the Summer School on Parliaments @sgparliaments.bsky.social 🗓️ 27 Jul–6 Aug, Goethe University Frankfurt 🎓️ Our expert instructors: @markuswagner.bsky.social @olgaeisele.bsky.social @profrosiecamp.bsky.social @stefanmueller.bsky.social @tomlouwerse.nl ⌛️ Apply by Thu 7 May

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Summer School of the Standing Group on Parliaments, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt, 27 July – 6 August 2026

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Gerry Arthurs@gerryarthurs.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Really interesting piece here by @stefanmueller.bsky.social in advance of the bye elections in Dublin Central and Galway West

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Ahead of the Dublin Central and Galway West bye-elections next month, I’ve analysed, merged, and extended various datasets to gather insights from all bye-elections over the last century. Article now published at @news.rte.ie 📄 www.rte.ie/news/analysi... 15 stats based on this analysis ⤵️

Reasons for calling bye-elections