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Irish Polling Indicator

@irishpollingind.bsky.social

The Irish Polling Indicator combines all opinion polls into estimates of political support for Irish parties and Independents | Maintainer: @stefanmueller.bsky.social https://pollingindicator.com

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Irish Polling Indicator @irishpollingind.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Updated pollingindicator.com estimates after adding the most recent Ireland Thinks and RedC polls: SF: 22% [20.5–23] FG: 17% [15.5–18.5] FF: 16% [15–17] Ind/Oth: 12.5% [11–13.5] SD: 10% [9–11.5] II: 8% [7–9] AÚ: 5.5% [4.5–6] LAB: 3.5% [3–4] GP: 3.5% [3–4] SPBP: 2% [1.5–2.5]

Latest estimates:

SF: 22% [20.5–23]
FG: 17% [15.5–18.5]
FF: 16% [15–17]
Ind/Oth: 12.5% [11–13.5]
SD: 10% [9–11.5]
II: 8% [7–9]
AÚ: 5.5% [4.5–6]
LAB: 3.5% [3–4]
GP: 3.5% [3–4]
SPBP: 2% [1.5–2.5]

Michael Gallagher @michaelgtcd.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Very informative – and topical given two upcoming 22 May by-elections – article on Irish by-elections by UCD’s Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social on RTÉ Brainstorm: rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2026/0426/1569745-bye-elections-through-the-years-analysis/

Politics: What a century of bye-election data reveals

What do bye-elections tell us about Irish politics? With contests due in Dublin Central and Galway West on 22 May, a century of results offers a sense of campaign strategies and voting behaviour.

rte.ie

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Ahead of the Dublin Central and Galway West bye-elections next month, I’ve analysed, merged, and extended various datasets to gather insights from all bye-elections over the last century. Article now published at @news.rte.ie 📄 www.rte.ie/news/analysi... 15 stats based on this analysis ⤵️

Wins by government and opposition parties/Independent candidates by decade

Party affiliation of TDs who were previously unsuccessful in a bye-election

Main source used in deciding how to vote, 2024 general election

Irish Polling Indicator @irishpollingind.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Latest @irishpollingind.bsky.social estimates: Sinn Féin: 24% [22–26] Fianna Fáil: 17.5% [16.5–19] Fine Gael: 17.5% [16–19] Ind/Others: 12.5% [11–14.5] Soc Dems: 8.5% [7–9.5] Aontú: 5% [4–6] II: 4.5% [3.5–5.5] Labour: 4.5% [3.5–5] Greens: 3% [2.5–4] S-PBP: 2.5% [2–3.5] ▶️ pollingindicator.com

Sinn Féin: 24% [22–26]
Fianna Fáil: 17.5% [16.5–19]
Fine Gael: 17.5% [16–19]
Ind/Others: 12.5% [11–14.5]
Soc Dems: 8.5% [7–9.5]
Aontú: 5% [4–6]
II: 4.5% [3.5–5.5]
Labour: 4.5% [3.5–5]
Greens: 3% [2.5–4]
S-PBP: 2.5% [2–3.5]

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 6mo ago

📻 @kevcunningham.bsky.social and I talked about the state of the parties, public opinion, and the nature of Irish by-elections with @mcculld.bsky.social on @rteradio1.bsky.social this morning. ➡️ www.rte.ie/radio/radio1...

State of the parties

Kevin Cunningham, Lecturer in Politics at TU Dublin and Founder of Ireland Thinks and Stefan Müller, Associate Professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at UCD.

rte.ie

Irish Polling Indicator @irishpollingind.bsky.social · 6mo ago

The latest aggregated @irishpollingind.bsky.social estimates: SF: 22.5% [21–24] FF: 18% [17–19] FG: 18% [17–19] Ind/Oth: 13.5% [12–14.5] SD: 8.5% [8–9.5] AÚ: 4.5% [4–5.5] II: 4.5% [4–5.5] LAB: 4% [3.5–5] GP: 3% [2.5–3.5] SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5] ▶️ pollingindicator.com

Latest Irish Polling Indicator Estimates (5 February 2026):

SF: 22.5% [21–24]
FF: 18% [17–19]
FG: 18% [17–19]
Ind/Oth: 13.5% [12–14.5]
SD: 8.5% [8–9.5]
AÚ: 4.5% [4–5.5]
II: 4.5% [4–5.5]
LAB: 4% [3.5–5]
GP: 3% [2.5–3.5]
SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5]

Difference between first-preference vote share at the 2024 General Election and current polling estimates.

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Joe Humphreys covers our research on election campaigns, candidates, and voting behaviour in today’s Irish Times. 📰 www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2026... @irishtimes.com

The Irish Times print edition, 2 February 2026

From such examples, one might conclude that relatively trivial factors are having an exaggerated impact on politics, and that social media is accelerating this change. But is it that simple? "What we definitely observe is this personalisation of politics," says Stefan Müller, associate professor in politics and international relations at University College Dublin, but establishing cause and effect is more complicated.
Müller, who specialises in using large data sets to examine political activity, is the joint author of a magnificently titled study, Evidence for the Irrelevance of Irrelevant Events. It looks at the question of whether
"irrelevant events" outside politicians' control, like sports results or natural disasters, affect voting behaviour.

The short answer is no, despite an
"influential strand" of US research suggesting otherwise. Müller and TCD academic Liam Kneafsey took a novel two-pronged approach, first, mapping GAA results with constituency voting patterns since Irish independence and, then, taking a deep-dive into recent opinion polls.
They found no evidence that sports results - or any change in mood they might generate in a community - affected Irish voting behaviour. "We believe our findings challenge previous arguments that voters are simply irrational and influenced by irrelevancies," they say.

Turning to the Kanturk example, Müller says
"there has been some commentary that this really influenced the campaign but if you look at the polling ... Fine Gael were already losing support before the Kanturk incident.
So it might have contributed to it but was it the only cause? Maybe it has changed some people's view of Simon Harris; that could be the case".
Minor events "can at least change the narrative of the campaign", he says, and there's a bandwagon effect where people tend to mirror the prejudices or preferences of their peers. If a politician gets a negative image in the public sphere - whether it's deserved or not - it can be difficult to shake off.

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 8mo ago

The chapter with @gailmcelroy.bsky.social analyses issue salience and positions. Housing and health were among the most salient issues for nearly all parties. Interestingly, immigration barely featured in the manifestos. Chapter: hdl.handle.net/10197/29172 Book: link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

The five most salient policy areas for each party

Salience of policy areas in the 2024 manifestos

The development of issue salience since 2011

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Exactly one year to the day after the general election, “How Ireland Voted 2024: The New Normal?” is now available in bookshops. ➡️ link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

Copies of “How Ireland Voted 2024: The New Normal?”

Irish Polling Indicator @irishpollingind.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Latest estimates: Sinn Féin: 23% (21.5%–25%) Fianna Fáil: 18.5% (17%–19.5%) Fine Gael: 17.5% (16%–19%) Ind/Others 14.5% (12.5%–16%) Social Democrats: 7.5% (6.5%–9%) Aontú: 5% (4%–6.5%) Labour: 4.5% (4%–5.5%) Independent Ireland: 4% (3%–5%) Solidarity-PBP: 2.5% (2%–3.5%) Green Party: 2.5% (2%–3%)

Latest Irish Polling Indicator estimates – 30 Nov 2025:

Sinn Féin: 23% (21.5%–25%)
Fianna Fáil: 18.5% (17%–19.5%)
Fine Gael: 17.5% (16%–19%)
Ind/Others 14.5% (12.5%–16%)
Social Democrats: 7.5% (6.5%–9%)
Aontú: 5% (4%–6.5%)
Labour: 4.5% (4%–5.5%)
Independent Ireland: 4% (3%–5%)
Solidarity-PBP: 2.5% (2%–3.5%)
Green Party: 2.5% (2%–3%)

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Exactly one year to the day after the general election, “How Ireland Voted 2024: The New Normal?” is now available in bookshops. ➡️ link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Really important and insightful analysis of the voters who spoiled their ballots in the presidential election. @kevcunningham.bsky.social also classifies open-ended survey responses to better understand the underlying reasons and motivations. ➡️ open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...

Respondents were asked ‘Why’ they voted the way they did in an open-ended text box. These are the responses classified into groups.

Open-ended survey responses – proportional sample of statements

% of each voter type that spoiled their ballot as opposed to those who voted at the 2025 Irish Presidential election.

% who spoiled their vote broken down by age, gender and self-reported social class.

Kevin Cunningham@kevcunningham.bsky.social · 9mo ago

I've completed an analysis of the spoiled voter in the link below. This is a voter who will invariably come into play in the future. kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...

Irish Polling Indicator @irishpollingind.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Updated aggregated estimates: Sinn Féin: 24% (22.5–25.5) Fine Gael: 19.5% (18–20.5) Fianna Fáil: 19% (18–20) Ind/Oth: 13.5% (12–15) Soc Dems: 7.5% (6.5–8.5) Lab: 4.5% (4–5.5) Aontú: 4% (3–5) II: 3.5% (3–4.5) SPBP: 2.5% (2–3) GP: 2.5% (2–2.5) ➡️ pollingindicator.com

Sinn Féin: 24% (22.5–25.5)
Fine Gael: 19.5% (18–20.5)
Fianna Fáil: 19% (18–20)
Ind/Oth: 13.5% (12–15)
Soc Dems: 7.5% (6.5–8.5)
Lab: 4.5% (4–5.5)
Aontú: 4% (3–5)
II: 3.5% (3–4.5)
SPBP: 2.5% (2–3)
GP: 2.5% (2–2.5)

https://pollingindicator.com

Irish Polling Indicator @irishpollingind.bsky.social · last yr.

New blog post on party support, seven months after the general election: pollingindicator.com/blog/update-... SF: 21.5% [20–23] FF: 20.5% [19–21.5] FG: 18% [16.5–19.5] Ind/Oth: 15% [13.5–17] SD: 7.5% [6.5–8.5] LAB: 5% [4–5.5] II: 4% [3–5] AÚ: 3.5% [3–4.5] SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5] GP: 2.5% [2–3]

Percentage point differences between current estimates and first-preference vote intention in the 2024 general election. The blog post summarises and interprets these results.

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · last yr.

The GE 2024 Election Study Data are released this morning. Rory Costello shows that only one-third of respondents feel close to a party, and over 30% reported having voted for a different party in 2020. Confirms that volatility and party affiliation differ from the typical European country.

Slide showing statistics on party affiliation and levels of volatility.

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · last yr.

Gail and I wrote a chapter on issue salience and party positions. The most streamlined project I’ve worked on – thanks to the editors’ clear instructions and tight deadlines. 1️⃣ Election: 29 Nov 2024 2️⃣ First drafts due just two months (!) after election day 3️⃣ Final version due 5 March 2025

How Ireland Voted 2024

This book is the 10th volume in the established How Ireland Voted series and provides the definitive story of Ireland’s 2024 election.

link.springer.com

Theresa Reidy@theresareidy.bsky.social · last yr.

We are hoping that How Ireland 2024 will hit the shelves in late Summer with a launch in late September. Lots of great contributions on the campaign, manifestos and results from @janesuit.bsky.social @harrymcgee.bsky.social @gailmcelroy.bsky.social @stefanmueller.bsky.social and many more

Irish Polling Indicator @irishpollingind.bsky.social · last yr.

The latest Irish Polling Indicator estimates, five months after the General Election: SF: 24% [22.5–25.5] FF: 22% [21–23] FG: 18.5% [17.5–20] Ind/Oth: 11.5% [10–13] SD: 7% [6.5–8] LAB: 4% [3.5–4.5] II: 3.5% [3–4.5] AÚ: 3.5% [2.5–4.5] SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5] GP: 2.5% [2.5–3] ➡️ pollingindicator.com

Graph showing most recent Irish Polling Indicator estimates:

SF: 24% [22.5–25.5]
FF: 22% [21–23]
FG: 18.5% [17.5–20]
Ind/Oth: 11.5% [10–13]
SD: 7% [6.5–8]
LAB: 4% [3.5–4.5]
II: 3.5% [3–4.5]
AÚ: 3.5% [2.5–4.5]
SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5]
GP: 2.5% [2.5–3]

Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · last yr.

POLL: Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks (April 3-4, MoE 2.2%) Fianna Fáil 25 (+3 in five weeks) Fine Gael 21 (-1) Sinn Féin 21 Social Democrats 8 (+1) Aontú 4 (+1) Ind Ireland 4 (-1) Labour 4 PBP-Solidarity 3 (+1) Greens 2 Inds/others 9 (-2) www.independent.ie/irish-news/p...

Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Fianna Fáil see bounce in support after meeting with Donald Trump, new Sunday Independent poll shows

Fianna Fáil has seen a bounce in support after Taoiseach Micheál Martin endured a tense exchange with US President Donald Trump in advance of the tariffs war, the latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thi...

m.independent.ie

Business Post @businesspost.bsky.social · last yr.

Red C Poll: Fine Gael slumps to lowest level of support with party five points behind Fianna Fáil

Simon Harris now finds his party one point below its previous lowest level of support in September 2022

businesspost.ie

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · last yr.

We have added a new section on the accuracy (vote-poll error) of the Irish Polling Indicator estimates in all elections since 1987: pollingindicator.com#validation Summary of changes: pollingindicator.com/blog/update-... Thanks to @tomlouwerse.nl for help with updating the interactive graphs.

This graph compares first-preference vote shares in the 2024 General Election with the Irish Polling Indicator estimates released the day before the election. On average, the election results deviated by less than 0.6 percentage points from the Polling Indicator estimate. With the exception of the Green Party and Solidarity-PBP, the Irish Polling Indicator estimates were within the margin of error.

To assess the accuracy of polls more systematically, we can calculate the vote-poll error. If the election result matches the polls exactly, the vote-poll error is zero. For example, a vote-poll error of 1 would mean that, on average, the polls were off by one percentage point from the election results across all parties and Independents. The figure below shows polling errors for Irish general elections from 1989 to 2024. Across these nine elections, the estimates were off by 1.23 percentage points from actual first-preference vote shares. This vote-poll error is considerably better than the errors observed in a comparative study of over 30,000 opinion polls from 350 elections in 45 countries.
The Irish Polling Indicator achieved a vote-poll error of 0.54 in the 2024 General Election, its most accurate result yet.

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · last yr.

The @irishpollingind.bsky.social website has been updated: – Revisions of all interactive graphs – Details on accuracy in previous elections – New datasets @harvarddataverse.bsky.social: daily estimates (1987–2024) and poll results (1983–2024): doi.org/10.7910/DVN/... ➡️ pollingindicator.com

Most recent Irish Polling Indicator estimates:

SF: 22.5% [20–24.5]
FF: 22% [21–23.5]
FG: 20.5% [18.5–22]
Ind/Oth: 10% [8–12]
SD: 7.5% [6–9]
LAB: 4% [3–5]
AÚ: 4% [3.5–5]
II: 4% [3.5–5]
GP: 3% [2–3.5]
SPBP: 2.5% [2–3.5]

Business Post @businesspost.bsky.social · last yr.

Red C Poll analysis: No honeymoon for government as voters show buyer’s remorse

The poor housing completion figures for last year came soon afterwards, providing no reprieve in pressure on the new government.

businesspost.ie

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · last yr.

A large part of the Irish political science community is using this rainy weekend to finalise their chapter revisions for “How Ireland Voted 2024” (deadline: Monday). Sneak preview of my chapter with Gail McElroy below. We validate and apply transformer models to measure salience and positions.

Salience of policy areas in manifestos. Coloured dots represent the emphasis placed on each issue in the nine party manifestos. The grey dot below each policy area indicates the average emphasis across all manifestos, while the error bars show the range of ± one standard deviation around the average.

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 2y ago

Honoured to be Highly Commended in the Early Career Researcher of the Year (IRC Legacy) Awards 2024. Thank you to @researchireland.bsky.social for hosting a memorable awards ceremony, and huge congrats to all winners – truly impressive research! @ucddublin.bsky.social www.ucd.ie/newsandopini...

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 2y ago

The polls have almost nailed it. On average, @irishpollingind.bsky.social was only 0.54 points away from election result (max: 0.85). Spot on for FF and FG. Irish pollsters are better than their reputation, and online polls are not worse than face-to-face surveys. pollingindicator.com#validation

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 2y ago

Really enjoyed covering the campaign and election for @news.rte.ie and international outlets – ready for a break now. A few times, the media got quite creative with my name. Someone recommended: "just say 'Müller like the yoghurt'"😄

Caoimhín Ó Tiománaigh @timoneykevin.bsky.social · 2y ago

+1 Superb job by the pollsters and thanks a lot to all involved with @irishpollingind.bsky.social, which provides invaluable public service.

Stefan Müller@stefanmueller.bsky.social · 2y ago

Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 2y ago

Credit to the Irish pollsters for absolutely nailing #GE24 FF: 21.5% (polls) vs 21.9% (result) FG: 21% vs 20.8% SF: 19.5% vs 19% Polling averages via @irishpollingind.bsky.social

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 2y ago

Nice graph by @markcoughlan.bsky.social comparing the latest estimates from each pollster with the #GE24 Exit Poll. It looks very consistent, with barely any differences between face-to-face (Ipsos B&A) online polls (Red C, Ireland Thinks, Opinions). 📊 www.rte.ie/news/primeti...

Comparison of latest polls and 2024 Exit Poll

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 2y ago

From Covid to Kanturk: aggregated support for parties and Independents throughout the electoral cycle (February 2020 to November 2024), based on 154 opinion polls. Latest estimates: pollingindicator.com Data: github.com/Irish-Pollin... #GE24

Tom Louwerse @tomlouwerse.nl · 2y ago

I am really glad that @stefanmueller.bsky.social is keeping the Irish Polling Indicator up to date. Currently the four largest parties/actors are very close. But: polls are (imperfect) estimates for the situation now, might still change in the days running up to the elections! pollingindicator.com

Overview of latest polling indicator estimates.