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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)

@fintan-smith.bsky.social

Previously: Polling things at YouGov, Labour Now: Founder of polling and market research company @convergent-opinion.bsky.social Often confused with a dog called Fenton https://youtu.be/3GRSbr0EYYU

46 Posts636 Follower598 Folgt
sampallis.bsky.social@sampallis.bsky.social · 2d ago

So Convergent the most accurate pollster in Makerfield. Is showing Labour in the inner city close to their GE24 numbers: Hackney North: 55%, Lab, Green 21% Hackney South: 53% Lab, Green 23% Walthemstow: 48% Lab, Green 23% GE24 HN: 59% Lab, 23% Green HS: 59% Lab, 24% Green W: 59% Lab, 20% Green

Convergent Opinion@convergent-opinion.bsky.social · 2d ago

New MRP from @convergent-opinion.bsky.social: Labour ahead under Burnham, but still short of a majority Seats (change vs June): 🌹 245 (+138) ➡️ 174 (−112) 🌳 99 (+19) 🔶 67 (−17) 🎗️ 25 (−8) 🐉 8 (−2) 🌍 7 (−13) Labour leads but is 81 seats short of a majority 25–30 July, n=10,919

Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)@fintan-smith.bsky.social · 2d ago

First MRP of the Burnham premiership from @convergent-opinion.bsky.social 👀

Convergent Opinion@convergent-opinion.bsky.social · 2d ago

New MRP from @convergent-opinion.bsky.social: Labour ahead under Burnham, but still short of a majority Seats (change vs June): 🌹 245 (+138) ➡️ 174 (−112) 🌳 99 (+19) 🔶 67 (−17) 🎗️ 25 (−8) 🐉 8 (−2) 🌍 7 (−13) Labour leads but is 81 seats short of a majority 25–30 July, n=10,919

David Klemperer@dmk1793.bsky.social · 2w ago

We must remember the Utøya massacre, and remember it for what it was: a far-right attack specifically targeted against democratic socialist activists. Today, the ideologies of its perpetrator are openly espoused by a global network of nationalist oligarchs as they wage war on democratic societies.

Roberta Metsola@president.europarl.europa.eu · 2w ago

Fifteen years ago today, 77 lives were taken - most of them young - on an island that should have been a place of summer, friendship, and first ideas about the world they wanted to build. On that day, Norway grieved, and Europe grieved with it. Utøya. Oslo. We remember.

Emily Graham@emilyagraham.bsky.social · 4w ago

One of the questions we've had about our latest report is whether the public would back this type of 'routes for returns' approach, whereby the UK sought a deal with European partners We suggest the answer is yes 🧵

@bethgardiner-smith.bsky.social · 4w ago

It's also an approach that could unite Labour's voter coalition rather than fracture it. Our polling shows nearly 2/3rds Lab voters support this approach including 67% of voters lost to Reform but still open to Lab.

The Future Governance Forum (FGF)@futuregovforum.bsky.social · 4w ago

🚨Published today 🚨 Today FGF publishes a new report setting out how the new PM can win back public trust and deliver on one of voters’ top priorities by creating an asylum system that is fair, controlled and workable. Full report in comments.

Rethinking Migration 01 - Future Governance Forum

Cutting the number of small boat crossings is crucial to restoring public trust in government. The next Prime Minister will have three years to achieve a significant reduction in irregular Channel cro...

futuregovernanceforum.co.uk

@bethgardiner-smith.bsky.social · 4w ago

What should a new PM do about the Channel? We've published our next report on this topic today arguing the govt should prioritise expanding the deal with France to other EU countries starting w a 6-month 'circuit breaker' to dramatically change the incentives of getting into a boat. Here's why...

The Future Governance Forum (FGF)@futuregovforum.bsky.social · 4w ago

🚨Published today 🚨 Today FGF publishes a new report setting out how the new PM can win back public trust and deliver on one of voters’ top priorities by creating an asylum system that is fair, controlled and workable. Full report in comments.

YouGov@yougov.co.uk · last mo.

Britons tend to feel it's more important for an Andy Burnham government to pursue policies it believes are right than to stick to the policies in the Labour manifesto Pursue policies it believes are right: 48% Stick to manifesto promises: 16% Something else: 14% yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...

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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)@fintan-smith.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Always a pleasure working with @steveakehurst.bsky.social and @persuasionuk.bsky.social. Great thread below!

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social · 2mo ago

What happened in Makerfield? Some new constituency polling between @persuasionuk.bsky.social & Convergent (most accurate pollster in the race!), covering among other things: - Burnham assembling a coalition Lab needs nationally - 'Get Starmer out' + 'public ownership' at the centre of it. 🧵👇

Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)@fintan-smith.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Very happy with how @convergent-opinion.bsky.social did on this one. Polling these things is extremely hard and we tried out some new approaches methodologically that seemed to help us out here. Far from perfect, but for our first shot at a by-election poll as a company I'm dead chuffed.

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Well done to all pollsters who polled in Makerfield - incredibly hard to do and all got the winner right. And especially well done to Convergent Opinion - a new pollster led by @fintan-smith.bsky.social and @dylanspielman.bsky.social - who I think came the closest! Survation a close second. 💥

Sage T. Greene, Author@sagetgreene.bsky.social · 2mo ago

The entire Microsoft 365 lineup runs so unreliably, slows down my computer processes, and frustrates our clients by asking them to log in even when they don't need to. But at least it's also an expensive subscription with poor integrations that also occasionally deletes saved folders for no reason.

Persuasion UK@persuasionuk.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Our director @steveakehurst.bsky.social is in @cityam.bsky.social, talking about baselines for assessing Makerfield: "As strange as it sounds, Labour have no right to even be competitive in this seat; they should be 20-odd points behind based on national polling". www.cityam.com/what-should-...

What should we make of Makerfield?

Much analysis of the Makerfield by-election focuses on what it means for Keir Starmer and the Labour party's national fortunes - but how should we assess it on its own terms?

cityam.com

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social · 2mo ago

One of the obvious problems with a under-16 social media ban is that it won't work. (60%+ of Australian under-16s are still using these platforms). But it will make people feel like something has been done so they won't tackle the content, which is the real issue.

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social · 2mo ago

DfE pupil data is out today and shows that the number of private school pupils has dropped 5.6% since VAT was introduced. Not 25% like the independent schools council predicted. Or the 50% we saw in some right-wing papers. 5.6%.

Owen Winter@owenwntr.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Nice illustration of Labour's problem, from the British Election Study. Centre-right and right-wing voters think it is very left-wing (moreso than the Greens!) while left-wing voters think it is a centrist party

Chart showing respondents self-placement on a left-right scale and their placement of political parties. Left wingers view Labour as centrist, right-winers view it as left-wing
James Austin@jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 2mo ago

The Government has rightly identified that we're in the fight of our lives, for the soul of our nation. But thus far they don't seem to really appreciate that means we need to fight, in the same way our opponents are, with all the tools we have. Someone wake up the Culture Sec

JWexTheSpa@jwsidders.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Pretty much no sleep last night. The far-right has a grip on this country’s media and political narrative and I do not see anyone capable of breaking it. We are careering towards absolute catastrophe.