Been abroad in meetings. There was an undercurrent to them this year. (More of a riptide) Collecting my thoughts on what I can share. Still processing & recovering from the exhaustion of the changes we are enduring.
Caliii
@thecaliqueen.bsky.social
Finance, LGBTQ ally, dog dad, artist, brewer, longtime fan of nature
THIS IS HUGE! The FIRST 100% effective HIV PrEP drug, Lenacapavir, is APPROVED AND GOING GLOBAL. The makers are providing AFFORDABLE access to the drug in the United States AND beyond, signing ROYALTY-FREE licensing agreements with SIX generic manufacturers to produce AND supply it. 🧪🧵⬇️
I wrote this one year ago, on the first anniversary of my brother's passing. It's the only thing I've been able to write about it. It's a bit heavy, so content warning for addiction, death, and related struggle. niedermeyer.online/2024/05/09/g...
Get Clean
In loving memory of my little brother, 1992-2023.
niedermeyer.online
With all respect to the sanguine predictions from fellow economists: Standard quantitative trade models don’t seem to capture the loss of global public goods, such as the rules-based international order.
No he didn't. Cult-of-personality devotion requires pretending the pre-COVID economy was great, but it really wasn't. 2017-19 the economy was basically fine—neither great nor awful—and Trump's one big policy contribution was a big debt-financed stimulus that didn't stimulate, just stayed on trend.
Trump's Economic Performance Wasn't Good
No other president gets a pass on a year of their tenure, but even giving Trump one for 2020 shows his contribution to the US economy was, at best, mediocre
arcdigital.media
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · last yr.
The dissonance created by this level of toxic positivity while US residents are being renditioned to labor camps without due process hits like a sonic boom of blithe ignorance.
The Trump tax plan only works by cutting public services. This incredible visualization combines the potential tax cuts (which mostly go to the rich) and loss of services (mostly borne by the poor). It is a giant wealth transfer from the poorest to the richest. budgetlab.yale.edu/news/250319/...
Damn, Travis brings it to bear here. Brilliant, and much appreciated. Some serious food for thought
Travis@coloradotravis.bsky.social · last yr.One of the things I have been thinking about lately is how it’s very problematic to have ‘operators’ entering the political arena. Operator is a term that gets thrown around in the business world and it’s more or less what I do for work. 1/
As always, a thorough and enlightening explication on this core issue. Always appreciate Michael’s work (with an obligatory h/t to Keith Bradsher, of course)
Michael Pettis@michaelpettis.bsky.social · last yr.1/11 Good article by Keith Bradsher: "The Chinese government and the Communist Party jointly issued a lengthy list of planned initiatives on Sunday to get people to spend more, including larger pensions, better medical benefits and higher wages." www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/b...
Happy International Women's day to all the incredible women fighting for our freedom on the front lines and every woman in the rear supporting the fight and donating towards victory. You are all heroes, society will never forget your sacrifices.
This guy, @albertburneko.bsky.social, is a genius. Please read his brilliant article on Elon Musk's deranged and morally repugnant Mars colonisation schtick. defector.com/neither-elon...
Neither Elon Musk Nor Anybody Else Will Ever Colonize Mars | Defector
Mars does not have a magnetosphere. Any discussion of humans ever settling the red planet can stop right there, but of course it never does. Do you have a low-cost plan for, uh, creating a gigantic ac...
defector.com
Vance knows nothing & has never been to Ukraine. He is an idiot and should be treated as one. Zelensky gets it just right.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2y agoZELENSKYY: Putin broke the ceasefire. What kind of diplomacy, JD, are you speaking about? VANCE: I think it's disrespectful to come into the Oval Office and try to litigate this in front of the American media
1/15 Phil Gramm and Donald J. Boudreaux argue that the US trade deficit doesn't matter because it is simply the flip side of foreign investment into productive facilities in the US, and these create jobs and economic value for the US. www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
Opinion | Trump’s Myth of the Trade Deficit
Economic growth depends on deregulation, tax cuts and the budget deficit, not on the balance of trade.
wsj.com
Brew a pot of coffee and enjoy this fascinating discussion between Paul Krugman and Jim Chanos. You will be smarter - and a better investor - for it. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-conversa...
A Conversation with Jim Chanos
It’s the golden age of fraud, and other observations
paulkrugman.substack.com
“.. even though Biden had a reputation for chilling M&A .., there were both a greater number of takeovers and a higher value of acquisitions .. during his time .. than there were in Trump’s first term — both on a total and an annual average basis.” @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
For the record, as of the start of Trump's second term, the US economy is on a tear.
Joey Politano🏳️🌈@josephpolitano.bsky.social · 2y agoHere's each G7 country's cumulative increase in real GDP per capita, since just before the pandemic: 🇺🇸 +9.4% 🇮🇹 +6.5% (thru Q3) 🇯🇵 +3.1% 🇫🇷 +1.8% (thru Q3) 🇬🇧 -1.1% 🇩🇪 -1.9% (thru Q3) 🇨🇦 -2.0% (thru Q3)
The U.S. has a ~$28 trillion economy, 4% of the world’s population, >20% of the globe’s GDP, and >55% of the global market cap. Economically speaking, America is ALREADY great.
Barry Ritholtz@ritholtz.bsky.social · 2y agoRisks & Opportunities of the New Administration ritholtz.com/2025/02/risk...
1. We cannot now rule out the possibility of systemic collapse in the United States. If Trump and Musk paralyse the federal government, this could trigger social, financial and industrial failures. Neither Trump nor his team know how to respond to such failures, which could snowball and converge. 🧵
Not sure why the underlying post was deleted but it included a link to this: www.thinkgeoenergy.com/eavor-target... Eavor.de is the company in question.
Eavor targets geothermal power production at Gerestried site by 1H 2025
With surface facilities completed and drilling progressing, Eavor is expecting to generate geothermal power at the Geretsried, Germany site by 1st half of 2025.
thinkgeoenergy.com
Bitcoin price is interesting because it tells us things about the pricing of other stuff. We just have to work out what it's telling us. This chart shows intraday pricing of S&P500 futures contract and Bitcoin.
Markets really don’t believe this is happening. S&P 500 futures -1.4% VIX below 20 Stellantis -5.2% Ford -4.0% GM -6.6% Magna -4.9% These are all the *wrong* price if the tariffs actually do go in to effect tomorrow. Especially for the auto stocks.