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Kieran

@vasculism.bsky.social

Economics at UC Davis Grad student, cyclist, skill collector kierancdouglas.github.io

8 Posts38 Follower64 Folgt
Michael Clemens@mclem.org · 6d ago

The US Administration just cut the duration of student visas. Many have worried that visa extension backlogs will risk some students' graduation. At @piie.com I highlight a deeper problem. The rule gives political appointees discretion to do what they've promised: block most students from staying.

A new US rule to restrict student visas will hurt the US economy

The Trump administration issued a final rule in July that gives it discretion to cut short the course of study of most international students at US universities. It will likely use this new power to b...

piie.com

Center for Effective Global Action@cega-uc.bsky.social · 2mo ago

💡 How can we make evidence from impact evaluations easier to compare and use for decision-making? CEGA’s @ucbitss.bsky.social, alongside @nu-gprl.bsky.social, are testing the effectiveness of LLMs to automate the extraction of information from research papers. 🔗 Learn more: go.cega.org/DEVIDENCE

Evidence Aggregation: Extracting Key Findings from Academic Papers (DEVIDENCE)

Aggregating findings from multiple studies into a unified database makes it easier to surface these interventions and draw meaningful comparisons.

go.cega.org

Brian Nosek@briannosek.bsky.social · 2mo ago

The Ideology 2.0 dataset is now publicly accessible. 280,000 unique sessions, ~40 implicit measures, ~30 self-report items on the same topics as the implicit measures, 25 individual difference questionnaires, and dozens of individual self-report items. More: osf.io/2483h/overview

OSF

osf.io

Brian Nosek@briannosek.bsky.social · 4y ago

Are you interested in ideology, morality, political psych, implicit and explicit measures, or individual differences? We are releasing a massive dataset (>280k sessions) with dozens of individual difference measures, implicit and explicit measures. 1/...

Nick Huntington-Klein@nickchk.com · 3mo ago

This paper is now out in the Journal of Causal Inference with some updates but the same general message: LLMs were not particularly good at matching expert judgment on whether a given variable pair represented a causal relationship. www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...

degruyterbrill.com

Nick Huntington-Klein@nickchk.com · 2y ago

New working paper out today with @epiellie.bsky.social called "Do LLMs Act as Repositories of Causal Knowledge?" Can LLMs (ie ChatGPT) build for us the causal models we need to identify an effect? There are reasons to expect they could. But can they? Well, not really, no. arxiv.org/html/2412.10...

Michael Clemens@mclem.org · 3mo ago

Tomorrow the Supreme Court hears arguments in a case that could terminate Temporary Protected Status for 1.4 million migrants. With 19 colleagues including 3 Nobel laureates, I estimated the economic impact of ending TPS. @cnn.com on our estimates and the stakes for the country (cc @piie.com) —>

These Haitian immigrants contribute nearly $6 billion to the economy. Their fate is in the Supreme Court’s hands | CNN Business

Jan Gautam may soon have to let go of hundreds of workers at dozens of hotels in Florida. That’s why the CEO of IHRMC Hotels & Resorts is closely watching an immigration case that’s before the Supreme...

cnn.com

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Nothing says “partial American victory” like “all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz must coordinate with the Iranian military” because the Strait is “under Iranian control”

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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈@josephpolitano.bsky.social · 6mo ago

With the most robust rail network in the American Midwest, Chicago has the 2nd largest number of car-free households of any metro area (behind only NYC) Most of those households live around the L, especially the Red Line and western parts of the Blue & Green Lines

A map of car free households in Chicago
Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈@josephpolitano.bsky.social · 6mo ago

36% of DC households don't have a car—the highest rate of any major county outside NYC Those car-free households are concentrated near metro stops, especially between Dupont, Foggy Bottom, & McPherson. Green line stops like Columbia Heights, Navy Yard, & Anacostia also stand out

a map of the share of car free households in the DC area
Nick Huntington-Klein@nickchk.com · 5mo ago

Saw @gavinverhey.bsky.social in drag on Spell Slayers which was v fun and also learned about this card which is a great demonstration of the St. Petersburg Paradox! This creature has an average power equal to infinity, and yet is realistically much smaller than measly 10k-power Jumbo Cactuar

Okaun Eye of Chaos, which at the beginning of combat you flip until you lose a flip, and double its power and toughness for each time you win.
Ryan Briggs@ryancbriggs.net · 6mo ago

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.
Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈@josephpolitano.bsky.social · 6mo ago

core part of the ostensible economic justification for mass deportation was that Americans would rush in to take all the jobs immigrants left, but now unemployment rates for native born Americans are rising and the admin is sending people out to do damage control

A graph of the unemployment rate by immigration status showing a rise in native born unemployment
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 6mo ago

Peter Navarro: "The jobs report comes out tomorrow. We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like ... Wall Street has to adjust for the fact that we're deporting millions of illegals out of the job market."

NBER@nber.org · 7mo ago

DACA work authorization shifted undocumented youth into safer, higher-paying jobs, showing legal barriers—not skills—limit occupational opportunity, from Aimee Chin, Kalena Cortes, and Camila Morales www.nber.org/papers/w34685

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NBER@nber.org · 7mo ago

Examining whether GLP-1 medications pay for themselves finds no spending offsets through 5 years; savings, if any, may arise later or outside healthcare, from Coady Wing, Sih-Ting Cai, Daniel W. Sacks, and Kosali I. Simon www.nber.org/papers/w34678

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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈@josephpolitano.bsky.social · 7mo ago

I know people on this website are likely to be more amenable to this than I am, but I want to stress that institutional investor purchases of single family homes are a microscopic share of the market and so you’re basically not gonna see material changes in home prices from this

FinTwitter@fintwitter.bsky.social · 7mo ago

TRUMP: I AM IMMEDIATELY TAKING STEPS TO BAN LARGE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS FROM BUYING MORE SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES