Uber subsidized marketplace liquidity to lock in local network density. Frontier labs are funding clusters and training runs that lose pricing power within eighteen months, while API switching costs stay negligible. That capitalizes fast depreciation rather than a defensible moat.

@jaredb-econ.bsky.social and I are looking at the AI labs this week. We show they're losing money in historically large amounts and fast, too; e.g. OpenAI has lost nearly 75% of the amount of money Uber cumulatively lost over 8 years. We also highlight their fragile financing structures, too.

News - Trump is set to attend another dinner at his resort for the biggest buyers of his meme coin You can probably get in to see the president for $1 million Trump has pocketed $635 million Investors down +$4 billion on Trump crypto www.washingtonsun.com/whitehouse/t...

Want Dinner With the President? Buy His Meme Coin.

The $Trump meme coin is offering buyers a new "exclusive" opportunity to meet the president.

washingtonsun.com

Mandatory.

1/2 Me+@jaredb-econ.bsky.social are out w/ a new piece examining how much revenue is needed to justify hyperscaler AI capex. We estimate that incremental AI revenue is currently b/n $86-$188.1B for the hyperscalers, but they need $13.1-$18.7 *trillion* over the next decade for that to pencil out.

here in MA people at a cafe were just griping about their first oil deliveries of the year. prices are 74% more expensive than last year.

Ryan Cummings@weakinstrument.bsky.social · 3w ago

2/n: Banning diesel exports would *temporarily* provide some price relief for most of the country, but not for New England. Because pipelines don't run that far north, PADD 1A has to import large amounts of diesel, which means it's competing with a (structurally short diesel) Europe for barrels

A 90 day diesel export ban would truly be a storied piece of policymaking because it would quite literally be the worst of both worlds; refiners would cut runs, throw excess production into storage (instead of sending to rest of US), *raising* prices domestically AND internationally.

Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 3w ago

(Politico ) - The Trump administration is preparing a plan to ban exports of diesel for 90 days, despite splits inside the administration and with the oil industry, in a bid to bring down energy prices .. @politico.com #ExportBan ⛽️ www.politico.com/news/2026/09...

1/n: Because of record-breaking diesel prices, the Trump Admin is reportedly considering a diesel export ban. There is one part of the country that this would squeeze tremendously, risking physical shortages that would prevent people from heating their homes in winter: New England (PADD 1A).

A longtime career goal to be on Marketplace, and I had to decline the first time I was asked because I was working at the White House. 🥁 So without further ado, I weigh in with thoughts on the gender pay gap and in particular, impact on child care workers and implications for the broader workforce.

Marketplace@marketplace.org · 4w ago

The gender pay gap has been widening since 2023, and it’s keeping some women out of the workforce entirely.

Great new paper showing that the effect of the U.S.-Israel bombing of Iran was to essentially change protests from being against the hardline Iranian government to being for it. Hard to imagine losing this war--among every dimension--even worse than the U.S. and Israel already has.

Relatedly, my SIEPR colleague @weakinstrument.bsky.social is in the New York Times today, talking about the AI equities boom and what happens if it looks like AI investments will not be profitable for a while: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/22/b...

When I ran BLS, I was asked constantly about the impact of AI on jobs. It's still one of the most common questions I get. So we put together a policy brief - for policymakers, journalists, and anyone trying to sort through what is happening with AI and jobs: siepr.stanford.edu/publications...

45K+ bodies a year. In my city we have 3x as many fatalities from reckless driving than homicides. 1. There exists dumb traffic cameras which just take a picture of the plate & the offense and are not networked to other system. 2. Most PDs aren't even using flock cameras for traffic violations.

Don Zeko@donzeko.bsky.social · 3mo ago

There's a pro-traffic camera contingent on here that thinks the public safety benefit of a panopticon on the roads is easily worthwhile. I'm not even sure they're wrong, but the downsides are quite real and concrete.

Lorenzo Salgado lived here longer than I’ve been alive, married to his wife of 30 years. Worked a blue collar job building houses to put his three kids through college. A real American and the kind of man they tell you you’re supposed to be. Fascism is so perverse.

Raider@iwillnotbesilenced.bsky.social · 3mo ago

"Ronaldo Salgado, the eldest son of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo, said he recognized his dad's voice as he bled out after being shot by an immigration officer in Houston."

It’s not a great sign that 1/3rd of the Supreme Court read what is arguably the most unambiguous part of the constitution and thought “no, actually the President can invalidate this 😜😜.”

GS estimating that consensus estimates for hyperscaler AI capex next year of $920 billion are ***too conservative*** and instead the right number is between $1-1.4 *trillion.* We're either at the bottom of a mountain or at the top of a cliff!! Exhilarating!!!! Terrifying!!!!

If you don't plan to celebrate America's 250th birthday by visiting ornamental fountains in D.C. or watching UFC fighters spar outside the White House, here are some picks for the best parks and public lands from my colleagues at the @uclalawemmett.bsky.social. legal-planet.org/2026/05/28/n...

America the Beautiful — Not Beautification Projects - Legal Planet

Oh, what a time to be an American! The Drain is a weekly roundup of environmental and climate news from Legal Planet.

legal-planet.org

~90% of the Somalis in MN are American citizens; this is the President directly calling 100,000 of our fellow countrymen and women crooks, 10 days after he announced his intention to steal $1.8 billion from taxpayers to pay him and his friends. If you're not going crazy, you've never been sane.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 5mo ago

Trump: "They're all crooks. The Somalians. What they've done to Minnesota. The Somalians. They're crooked as hell. They're all crooks."

Boycott ON! The [NAACP] urges Black athletes to withhold commitments to athletic programs in eight states over redistricting, and it also asks fans to stop buying tickets.” wapo.st/43hRsdT

NAACP calls for college sports boycott in states targeting Black voting power

The group urges Black athletes to withhold commitments to athletic programs in eight states over redistricting, and it also asks fans to stop buying tickets.

wapo.st

there has been talk about waiving the 18.4c/gal (gasoline) federal tax on gasoline and 24.3c/gal on diesel- these taxes also have not increased since 1993. If the fed tax on gasoline is waived, it would cost the government $2.1 billion in lost revenue per month.

Opinion | Mass Deportation and American Jobs A study finds that U.S. employment falls in areas with more ICE arrests. www.wsj.com/opinion/mass...

Mass Deportation and American Jobs

A study finds that U.S. employment falls in areas with more ICE arrests.

wsj.com

The vast majority of Americans — 8 in 10 — say there should be age caps for members of Congress, as well as term limits, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll. n.pr/4ngwZiW

In a new poll, Americans voice broad bipartisan support for age caps in Congress

The vast majority of Americans — 8 in 10 — say there should be age caps for members of Congress, as well as term limits, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.

n.pr

Me, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social, @nealemahoney.bsky.social, and Caleb Brobst are out with a piece today estimating the impact of 3 prominent Trump policies: OBBA refunds, tariffs, and gas prices. We estimate the combined impact of these will result in the average househould losing >$1,100 in 2026.

Alexis Goldstein, a former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau employee, was fired this year for recording DOGE’s incursion into the agency. www.wired.com/story/a-fede...

A Federal Worker Was Fired for Filming DOGE. Now She’s Running for Congress

Alexis Goldstein, a former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau employee, was fired this year for recording DOGE’s incursion into the agency.

wired.com

Affordability is too often justification for lowering our ambitions to transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. Panel 2 of our recent symposium covers the complexity of the issue. Plus: a high-speed lecture on CA oil prices from @weakinstrument.bsky.social www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJzV...

"Can Abundance be Sustainable" Panel 2: Affordability and the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels

YouTube video by UCLA Emmett Institute

youtube.com

This isn't even remotely close to true. ~0 of those barrels were incremental, and all the sanctions waivers did was effectively allow the Iranians to sell oil to other countries at a prices *higher* than they were selling them to the Chinese, who were buying 98% of it at a discount.

Repeat after Ryan: "More drilling in California would not insulate the state from price spikes, because the price of oil is determined on the global market." Louder in the back, now!

Ryan Cummings@weakinstrument.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Me and @nealemahoney.bsky.social are in the LAT today arguing that CA oil industry is trying to use the current crisis to jam through its deregulatory wishlist. Instead of caving, the state should use this moment to be a leader in the "mid-transition." www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...

Me and @nealemahoney.bsky.social are in the LAT today arguing that CA oil industry is trying to use the current crisis to jam through its deregulatory wishlist. Instead of caving, the state should use this moment to be a leader in the "mid-transition." www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...

Contributor: Oil industry's wish list is not the way to help Californians

The state should expand import infrastructure to protect against the refinery outages that disrupt our fuel supply.

latimes.com

Great example of this is monetary policy. Nearly 2/3rds of CEOs in a survey wouldn't even venture a guess as to what the Fed's inflation target was (something that directly impacts their business, btw!) and of those who guessed, only 20% could correctly identify it. www.nber.org/papers/w28836

George Pearkes@peark.es · 6mo ago

Since a certain phone company CEO is getting attention for some big predictions today, just a reminder that outside of the very specific verticals where their companies operate, there is no reason to believe a given executive is any better at predictive or descriptive analysis than a random person.

Ian Weissman, DO@drianweissman.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Pancreatic cancer mRNA vaccine shows lasting results in an early trial. Scientists caution that more research is needed, but nearly all of the patients who responded to the personalized vaccine are still alive six years later. www.nbcnews.com/health/cance...