oh damn, 0th edition must have ruled

adam jetmalani@adamjetmalani.org · 3d ago

wtf

The STARters in DC 👀 USWNT x The Home Depot

Every poll you see right now has undecided voters, and there are some decided voters who will change their minds.

If you’re watching the polls, just remember: 1. No one knows the direction of future polling error 2. An electoral wave won’t necessarily be uniformly distributed

but it does always crack me up when people outside the field start in with "do pollsters ever worry about..." because the answer is almost invariably "yes" and quite often additionally "would you like to see the task force report"

There is a lot of "oh dear" to go around in the results of this very thorough Pew study on the issues with synthetic samples, but this strikes me as particularly "oh dear" www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/20...

I guess you don't get where he is without whatever competitive sickness makes you want to rub it in the face of random shit talking fans in Columbus Ohio but Messi in MLS is so funny

The masculinity politics beat continues to be very necessary. goodauthority.substack.com/p/republican...

Wow she has super powers

If you’re watching the polls, just remember: 1. No one knows the direction of future polling error 2. An electoral wave won’t necessarily be uniformly distributed

Somehow, Schelling returned

"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux@bretdevereaux.bsky.social · last mo.

Put another way: even if no military weakness in the US armed forces had been revealed at all (unlikely in war), it is still possible to have a situation where the *threat* of force is actually a more valuable bit of strategic leverage than the *use* of force. And that's what I think we're seeing.

new likert just dropped

Survey 160 has job descriptions up for for two business development roles, a business development manager and a business development associate. The job listings are below, but I want to highlight two things about these roles. www.survey160.com/business-dev... www.survey160.com/business-dev...

I hope, at some point, Folarin Balogun can just have a normal day soon.

It is I, the broken record, once again - very few young men are doing this. Virtually none of them say this alpha-bro shit holds any weight to them. The dumbest stuff gets a lot of press attention and meanwhile most dudes just have pretty normal life goals static1.squarespace.com/static/68262...

Kevin M. Kruse@kevinmkruse.bsky.social · last mo.

"Why are young men so lonely? They're not showering and they're drinking their own urine, so I'm not sure what else they could do to attract women."

To be clear this kind of shit doesn't scare pollsters. If he wanted to scare pollsters this post would say WHY DOES THE CHART SAY 44 BUT THE PDF SAYS 42 and then refusing to elaborate further

Tea Pain@teapainusa.bsky.social · last mo.

This is what you get when you elect a president so he can stay out of jail.

My theory is that if you take an impulsive leader loosely tethered to reality, replace the policymaking process with sycophants and strivers who tell him how brilliant and popular he is, and cede every institutional check on his power, a bunch of ill-advised and inexplicable stuff will happen.

Starfire’s Deranged Neocon Foreign Policy Podcast@irhottakes.bsky.social · last mo.

I feel like I’m on fraud watch as an international relations scholar because I honestly kinda don’t fucking know why this country does anything anymore. If you held a gun to my head and demanded to know why we’re at war with Iran or feuding with Canada or want Greenland, I’d say the Lord’s Prayer.

went to the Spirit game today and my main takeaway is that Mélissa Bethi absolutely cooked on her debut. Spirit have a real player on their hands

It is significantly better to live in a world where the US’ soft power and influence is spent on giving vaccines and blood plasma to other countries to build good will, instead of what is essentially violent harassment and exploitation of everyone who has ever even remotely trusted us for anything.

Faine Greenwood@faineg.com · 2mo ago

So sure, USAID was a tool of US soft power and political influence, and also, I sometimes get the sense that people saying this don’t quite comprehend the torrent of death, horror, and pain that is currently unfolding from the genuinely evil decision to suddenly destroy it.

Ah fuck, we've polling America's top issues and concerns for decades and amidst all the wars, the economy, the budget, civil liberties, corruption, our republican form of government itself, we forgot to include "One of the Great Lakes has the wrong name"

Very interesting report. Very different than what we’ve seen. I bet there’s a lot variation of variation by panel vendor, among other things.

Pollcat, AKA Scott Keeter@pollcat.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Bogus or fraudulent respondents constitute one of the most urgent problems in online opt-in polling. This new report by my colleague Andrew Mercer looks at three methods to identify bogus cases but finds no surefire solution www.pewresearch.org/methods/2026...

a wikipedia page with 17 sections, none of which are "controversy" en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolly_P...

you can't spell "democracy" without "emo," and no, I have no idea where I'm going with this either

Wrote about this kind of predicament with @tesler.bsky.social several years ago at fivethirtyeight: “Why racist white voters often favor Black republicans”: web.archive.org/web/20211110... In searching for this, turns out I missed the backlash the piece received! www.foxnews.com/media/abc-ne...

R. Souissi@rsouissivibes.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Florida racists are in quite the predicament this fall. A GOP Black man vs a Dem white man. A state that hates Black people but a Black man is pushing the policies they'd like to vote for...vs a white man, in a state that loves white men, running on the opposite ticket. I love this for them.

Educational polarization and the culture war means tons of seemingly-unrelated behavior starts clustering around “conscientiousness”

Carter Rubin@carterrubin.com · 2mo ago

New from NRDC and Atlas Public Policy: EV buyers are 50% less likely to default on their auto loans compared to people with similar credit & income who buy cars with average fuel efficiency. People buying gas guzzlers are 16% more likely to default. atlaspolicy.com/fact-sheet-a...

sunset in DC getting any earlier than 8 PM is democratic backsliding

now this is a hell of sentence: "A recommender that’s a mediocre predictor of what you’d love in a rich, diverse world becomes an excellent predictor of what you’ll click in the impoverished one it creates." laurenleek.substack.com/p/temperatur...

Temperature Zero for Culture: Why Everything Is Starting to Look the Same

What 640 London shopping streets, 4,000 Billboard hits, a million films and synthetic AI personas tell us about why everything is flattening into sameness and how to regulate the algorithms behind it.

laurenleek.substack.com

[Intro level] Democracy is really good, actually. [Slightly less intro level] Political parties are really good, actually.

Riley Bruce@rileybruce.bsky.social · 2mo ago

What’s a thing from your area of expertise (or special interest) that you think it would behoove everyone else to know?

Another new, useful paper on the potential biasing effects of measuring attitudes pre-treatment in survey experiments, this one focused on racial attitudes. Finds no bias from pre-treatment measures in two of three racial attitude measurement strategies www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

New POQ by Huang and Hartman on sensitivity analysis for survey weighting designs: academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...