Andrew Tan

@andrewtanyongyi.bsky.social

📢PROJECT UPDATE📢 You may have seen the news that the University of Exeter, home of the wills project, has placed 500 academics at risk of redundancy. The project leader Prof. Jane Whittle & project co-investigator Dr Laura Sangha are both at risk, alongside almost all of the History department. 1/

Fwiw my best go at a simple p-value explanation is, "If nothing interesting is going on, how likely are we to see these data or something more extreme?" Then you have to define interesting and more extreme, but that's problem-specific.

I’m afraid this flips the statistical conditional — “given these data, how likely just chance?” — when the logic is closer to “given just chance, how likely these data?” Now how bad that is probably depends on the context and the extent to which it’s taken seriously in the first place 😅