Andy Berner
@andybrnr.bsky.social
Meteorology PhD, data scientist, ski mountaineer, GSP and Eurohound dad
I fundamentally do not know how to square the politics whereby Democrats will essentially have to tell the American people that because they (the voters) made an extremely stupid decision, they need to lower their expectations substantially for the foreseeable future, but here we are.
Also for the record, it’s midnight on August 3 and it’s 56° in Seattle. We are blessed in our geography.
I remember Josh Wolfe of Lux Capital calling this on a podcast (either Odd Lots or ILTB) in like 2021.
George Pearkes@peark.es · 6d agoSo $SPCX swallowing $TSLA is absolutely happening. www.wsj.com/business/aut...
BRB, writing a new children's book for 25 year olds:
Quantian@quantian.bsky.social · 6d agoJESUS H. CHRIST
This is just to say I have OCRed the text thet was in tne arch:ve and whicb yov were prabaldy seamhing for "breahtast" Fargme ms fheg mem debo:w5 sb ?mccf mmb 5c oc1b
Also, imagine your kid or your spouse or your parent or your friend or your sibling comes home in a bag and you get told “well, see, this doesn’t actually count because we don’t really want it to.”
On the other hand, if your worry is sectoral in nature (say, the effect of imports on your auto industry) you should respond by industrial policies encouraging productive investments. Again, tariffs are a blunt tool. +
Yes. This point is not sufficiently recognized in the global imbalances debate. If you think your CA deficit is excessive and caused by factors outside your borders, you should tax or otherwise discourage capital inflows. Tariffs are a very blunt tool at best. +
Michael Pettis@michaelpettis.bsky.social · 2w ago8/9 I agree, and this suggests that rather than encourage capital inflows, economies that want to strengthen their manufacturing and productive sectors and to benefit workers by raising productivity and wages should consider capital controls as a far more effective tool than tariffs.
Apologies if I sound angry, but it is a real problem that the 'smart' commentary on this war is trying hard to avoid the core lesson ("the president is a fucking moron") because it doesn't sound very clever when it is absolutely the most important takeaway from this debacle.
The second strategic failure is that the American people (re)elected a worthless fucking moron like Donald Trump, who is boundlessly confident despite knowing nothing about anything and so asked the US military to do the impossible for no reason at all because he got lucky in Venezuela.
Fable concludes that an untrained adult would throw a naan further as there's sufficient membrane tension to stop folding. A baguette javelin would theoretically go further but is too unstable to maintain flight and would start tumbling unless you could add spin-stabilization or fins.
As a Canadian-American, I am granting @jamellebouie.net honorary Canadian status for this video
It is time to stop treating Donald Trump's anti-Canada rhetoric like a joke
YouTube video by Takes™ by Jamelle Bouie
youtube.com
Clausewitz. Yeah. Of course. You can see it right in On War. If you're the superpower, you just win! Stab yourself repeatedly in the face in a confused war with no clear political end-state? It doesn't matter! Nothing matters!
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2w agoRep. Rich McCormick on Iran: "I'm a big Clausewitzian warfare guy. I believe in dominance. We are the dominant world superpower. These guys are not. I would've been unrelenting until the end."
I, too, would want an armored car were I laundering money for, and/or defrauding via shitcoin the New Generation Jalisco Cartel.
Cars Ruin Cities@carabolitionist.bsky.social · 2w agoI actually respect her armored car choice more now. She came by her personal risk assessment honestly (doing money laundering for international crime syndicates), as opposed to the armored car customers whose risk assessments came from cooking their brains watching the George Floyd protests in 2020
Curious what global trade knowers think about this assertion. My gut is that it’s much more about China than the U.S., but this is better domestic messaging?
Unusual Whales@unusualwhales.bsky.social · 3w agoBREAKING: Germany’s Chancellor Merz: US tariffs have badly damaged the German economy.
I’m increasingly of the opinion that when AI Overviews disappears we’re going to realize it was the funniest thing ever to happen on the internet Here for instance, it invents a totally new form of literary criticism, without being asked to! (rest of this is all about batteries)
This is because Michael Crichton and Tom Clancy mass-market paperbacks are no longer being made readily available to children in their homes at the critical age (during the summer between third and fourth grade)
The End of Reading Is Here
Optimists once believed that universal literacy was inevitable. Now it seems that the age of reading might be a short anomaly in human history.
theatlantic.com
DAWG WE'RE DOING STATE-RUN GAS PRICES AT PRICE CONTROLLED RATES DESPITE INCREASING SHORTAGES TO PACIFY THE PEOPLE AND THEY'RE SCREAMING ABOUT HOW THEIR OPPONENTS WANT COMMUNISM I AM GOING TO LOSE MY ENTIRE GODDAMN MIND
USA TODAY@usatoday.com · 4w agoThe White House launched 25 Freedom Fuel gas stations, all selling fuel at $3.47 a gallon.
That look when you first learn about the Islamic Republic of Japan launching 11 missiles.
“I’m not saying we wouldn’t get our hair mussed, but I do say no more than 100-200 basis points down, tops”
Military officer on phone in control room
ALT: Military officer on phone in control room
static.klipy.com
IMHO a lot of this is now a soft version of what has happened with Russia and Putin. The problem with "touch the stove" is that basic recognition of the sheer scale of Trump's screwups means a shattering of the assumptions needed to keep business as usual going. There's nowhere left to hide if
Nicholas Grossman@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 4w agoThe US govt, markets, and a lot of media told you there's peace with Iran and shipping is flowing. What's actually happened is the war entered a new phase: the fight for Hormuz. Trump lost his war so badly the US aim now is just to get back to the pre-war status quo. I explain in @ms.now, ICYMI:
Props to @ametsoc.org for joining the chorus. "If implemented, [the OMB rule] would damage the nation’s ability to understand, predict, and respond to severe weather, drought, and other natural hazards with negative impacts on public safety and the economy."
AMS Summary Comments on the Office of Management and Budget Proposed Rule on Regulation for Federal Financial Assistance
The AMS is a global community committed to advancing weather, water, and climate science and service.
ametsoc.org
