local woman feels slightly vindicated for several weeks spent steering colleagues away from state primary polling that was a) sponsored or conducted by groups with vested interests b) done on the cheap c) done by people with very little track record d) all of the above, yes

My dad's dad was a milkman, but in 1926 he wasn't yet, so I'd be a shop assistant in a fishmongers. On my mum's side, I'd be a Salvation Army Officer... though in less than a year I'd be forced to resign because I wanted to marry a Catholic, which was a definite no.

Revan@revan.eurosky.social · last wk.

Enough “what would you do on the commune questions” If you got sent back 100 years and were given your grandparent’s job, what are you doing?

I clicked thru to the ‘proof of human authorship’ and for the record, if you wrote a 345 page book in 19 hours, no the fuck you didn’t

Seen that opinion poll in which millionaires say they're in favour of a wealth tax on millionaires? It's an absolute masterclass in how to get the polling result that you want. And the detail shows the opposite of what we're told it shows. Thread:

This is a VERY useful database 👇

Philip Nye@philipnye.bsky.social · 2w ago

As cabinet appointments start to come in, a reminder that we (@instituteforgovernment.org.uk) hold a database of all ministerial appointments back to 1979 It's easy to look up all the previous holders of a post, all the roles someone has had etc: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/ministers-da...

AB, a 🧵

Do you wonder about how women in the UK are known to be ‘more traditionalist’ and yet vote more progressive? Well, wonder no more! @cerifowler.bsky.social and I have a new paper in @electoralstudies.bsky.social on how this supposed paradox is a measurement artefact 1/ 8

Theories and measurement of political values and under-represented groups: the case of women in the UK

This paper argues that the primary divide in values (Inglehart, 1977; 1990) between safety and self-expression lies in a different place for discrimin…

sciencedirect.com

The latest one is how he had a baby and how he will neglect his children to campaign as a comedy character. Guys?! He doesn’t campaign? He literally turns up on the night. Just trying thinking about it for more than two seconds. Do you think he goes door knocking with his head in a bin?

New joy unlocked: reading about Count Binface - Graf Mülltonnengesicht, comte Face de Poubelle, il conte Binface etc etc - in European papers.

STOP INTERVIEWING RANDOM MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC WHO ARE HANGING AROUND THE TOWN CENTRE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON YOU MAY AS WELL ASK A CAT FOR HOW REFLECTIVE OF PUBLIC OPINION IT IS www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

What do Farage's Clacton constituents think of his resignation?

People living in Clacton share contrasting feelings of frustration and support towards Nigel Farage.

bbc.co.uk

In contrast, there have been ten transfers from one Tory Chancellor to another. There have been six in the last ten years.

Kiran Stacey@kiranstacey.bsky.social · last mo.

Superb bit of political history from @joedromey.bsky.social - in the last 50 years, we've only once had a transfer from one Labour chancellor to another. Maybe that's why this tussle has become so intense.

Superb bit of political history from @joedromey.bsky.social - in the last 50 years, we've only once had a transfer from one Labour chancellor to another. Maybe that's why this tussle has become so intense.

1) It's not clear leadership contests actually do the things claimed for them. Johnson, Truss & Starmer all won leadership elections, & Sunak fought one. This did not expose their weaknesses, bolster their authority or test their ideas. But it did see them making big promises they later dropped.

www.maptap.gg June 5 96🔥 100🎯 100🎯 99🎯 99🎯 Final score: 990 Not going to deny there was a fair amount of luck in that final one

Guardian have now corrected their story (without reflecting that in the article). Turns out those are actually the recalled 2024 votes for the people who took part in the exercise. Doh! www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Makerfield voters see cost of living and high street among top priorities, poll shows

Exclusive: Voters value changes ‘so we can afford to actually have a life’, as well as immigration policy and honesty in politicians

theguardian.com

Anthony Wells@anthonyjwells.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Gorton and Denton FindOutNow were (correctly) criticised for releasing a poll with a sample of 143. JLP have released voting intention figures (quoted to a decimal place as well!) from Makerfield based on 112 people but called it's a "focus group". www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Gorton and Denton FindOutNow were (correctly) criticised for releasing a poll with a sample of 143. JLP have released voting intention figures (quoted to a decimal place as well!) from Makerfield based on 112 people but called it's a "focus group". www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Cost of living and high street among top priorities for Makerfield voters, poll shows

Exclusive: Research showing Andy Burnham holding slim lead finds honesty in politicians and immigration also rank as important

theguardian.com

As misleading headlines go, that has to be up there with some of the worst! As is the claim that "Immigration is fuelling mass unemployment among under-25s." The "shocking new study" does NOT show that at all 🙄 🧵 1/21

Laughing to hide the tears: my SKETCH of Today at PMQs. thecritic.co.uk/laug...

"The focus on MRPs throughout the 2026 Holyrood campaign led to fewer polls, cost more money, and produced erratic claims due to some poor, or at least not transparent, methodological practices. The campaign highlights that whilst MRPs can add value, they remain a...fallible source of information."

MRPs: A false dawn - UK Election Analysis

Dr Eoghan Kelly Postdoctoral Researcher leading the Mile End Institute’s, Queen Mary University of London’s Polling London Project. He has lectured on quantitative methods at Queen’s University, Belfa...

electionanalysis.uk

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 New Blog 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 A short piece on how the new Senedd voting system worked! How many votes did it take to win a seat? Was it proportional? Who benefitted? Where did parties win support? And what would it take to win one more seat? If you're interested: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal... 🧵👇

All change! The 2026 Senedd Election

Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk

It doesn’t.

This crossed my mind a lot when looking at the locals in 2025, where the raw votes in many wards suggested either significant switching from left to right, or Reform gaining non-voters and Labour voters staying home. The individual-level data then showed that intra-bloc switching was low... 1/2

Luke Tryl@luketryl.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Looking at early results in Halton through, left-right bloc lens and you see the right bloc is up significantly (this isn’t just Tory Ref switching). Can’t know how much is differential turnout it and how much is cross bloc switching, but likely some of both.

Results so far: • We don't know much yet • Bad but not worst-case scenario for Labour • Good for Reform, but in line with polls • Too early to say much on Greens • Don't jump to conclusions on Lab/Reform switchers • These are bad results for Tories! Whatever they say! • We don't know much yet

What we know about the 2026 local elections so far

Very bad for Labour, very good for Reform - but perhaps not quite as extreme as some thought

thenewworld.co.uk

If I had to say what I think is the most important thing happening in British politics right now, I’d say it’s the following phenomenon, explained here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvhI... With huge thanks to @yougov.co.uk @martamiori.bsky.social and @itvnews.bsky.social Please share! Thank you!

How the May elections could overthrow Britain’s two-party system forever

YouTube video by ITV News

youtube.com

Btw, please do follow @martamiori.bsky.social for the best graphs in the UK elections business (yes, I am biased…) and for the insight and all-round brilliance.

Which, tangentially, allows me to share my all time favourite GB story showing how he never ever deviated from being his one true self (this via Ed Balls’ book)

Incredible chart (from otherwise depressing news story about bad advice being given to new parents) showing how cot deaths fell by 50% in the first year after the 'Back to Sleep' campaign was launched, and have continued to fall since. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

WHEN THE Bird in your room represents all your gloom Nevermoré When you're trying to grieve but that corvid won't leave Nevermoré

DerkHerkenbersh@dochackenbush.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Artists, if you see this post a bird.🪶 Any art form; no-AI 🎨

Lots of misunderstanding about Wales’s new electoral system — how it works, what it takes to get elected, and especially around tactical voting. Partly to sort my own thinking, I put together something that tries to make sense of it. Proper write-up coming soon. jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...

The big gender gap on attitudes to nuclear power is something I've written about before (and often comes as a surprise to people), but I've never seen this international comparison on nuclear gender gaps before bsky.app/profile/rich...

Richard Delevan@richard.wickedproblems.earth · 3mo ago

Gender is a massive blind spot in energy politics. Not just in the UK. But significantly in the UK. nbmediacoop.org/2025/05/19/t...